Election averted but Brexit drama begins
■ Fitzgerald steps down ‘for sake of the country’ ■ Top official in Justice Department retires ■ Coveney is tipped to be new Tánaiste
BREXIT will become the political priority following a day of drama which saw Frances Fitzgerald forced to resign as Tánaiste.
After being paralysed by political rancour for almost a week, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has pledged to focus on securing a deal that will prevent a Border with Northern Ireland.
But his political capital within Fine Gael is severely damaged, and a general election has only been postponed into the new year.
Worryingly, Mr Varadkar admitted: “An important summit is coming up in only two weeks’ time and I have been unable to give that any of my attention for the past number of days.” Sources have tipped Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney, who is in charge of Ireland’s Brexit strategy, to be the next tánaiste.
Meanwhile, the top official in the Department of Justice retired last night, while claiming the office “has been subject to a barrage of unwarranted criticism in recent days”.
Secretary general Noel Waters appeared to take a swipe at Mr Varadkar, saying comments made about the Department of Justice in the Dáil “are not true”.
BEING a ‘lame-duck Taoiseach’ at next month’s EU leaders’ summit on Brexit was a less than ideal prospect – but it was not something which could in itself have undermined Ireland’s case.
The real risk was a lack of total focus on the biggest challenge facing Ireland since we joined the then-EEC back in 1973. Simply put, the Brexit-election crux came down to this: how does the Taoiseach and his ministerial team keep 100pc concentration on this crucial phase of Brexit talks – and at the same time fight for their political lives?
Here we must note that the general election threat has merely receded. There is still every prospect of an election happening in the first half of 2018. That means the risk still persists of a less than full concentration on the complex maze of Brexit issues which are building to a climax.
For now, the banishment of the grim prospect of an unwanted Christmas election means Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will not be a ‘caretaker’ Taoiseach when he lands in Brussels for the two-day Brexit summit on December
14 next. The British Conservative-supporting media will be disappointed as it has already been playing up tales of political confusion in Dublin as part of its ongoing strange anti-Irish Brexit onslaught.
But few others in Brussels would have been unduly concerned, beyond a deep curiosity among people who are fixated by politics in all its manifestations and across many countries. The reality is that meetings in the EU capital are often attended by caretakers and lame ducks from various member states.
The EU linchpin, Angela Merkel, has been a caretaker German Chancellor since September, and the Netherlands was represented by a caretaker government for six months this year, as marathon coalition talks ground to a conclusion. There are many other examples in recent years. In Belgium, over the years 2010/2011, the country had to manage with a caretaker administration for 18 months. Italy has gone through various phases of short-lived coalitions going in and out through government revolving doors.
What really counts at Brussels negotiations is the continuity of policy on EU issues. So, in that matter, a signal of Brexit unity from all the key Dáil parties through the past week of crisis was extremely helpful. Fianna Fáil was especially keen to stress that it would not try to undermine Fine Gael over Brexit, and it is notable that different governments led by these two parties have always pursued identical EU policies.
But the past week’s tumult about justice and Garda issues has sharpened all parties’ and politicians’ election focus. Yesterday both Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin gave each other plaudits for their successful commitment to avoiding a snap general election.
Walking the corridors of Leinster House in the latter end of yesterday, nobody could be found who would confidently predict there will be a renewed period of political stability.
Assumptions that were in vogue up to 10 days ago, that there was a very good chance this minority Coalition could make a third Budget, were blown away. Odds on an election in the early months of next year have shortened.
For the past week, there has been no real focus on
We must note that the threat of a general election has merely receded. There is still every prospect of an election happening in the first half of 2018
Brexit. Last Friday, Green Party leader Eamon Ryan made this very point at a moment when a pre-Christmas election looked likely. “It is clear that the Taoiseach and his ministers have not given Brexit sufficient attention over the last few days. Things can only get worse,” Mr Ryan said.
That comment was borne out by none other than the Taoiseach himself when asked about Brexit.
“I have been unable to give that any of my attention for the past number of days,” Mr Varadkar said.
Granted, the Government has a skilled and experienced team of officials to guide it.
But there is only so much back-up and coaching which can be done. We are exactly at a point where the Taoiseach and his ministers need to make their own of this intricate and nuanced material. Mr Varadkar, Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney, and other heavy-hitting ministers will front up these negotiations.