‘Time for the UK to sink or swim with Brexit’

BREXIT is about to become much more complicated. For the last few months, we have had two negotiations going on in the same room. On one side of the table, we have London-Brussels and on the other side, London-London.

London-Brussels has so far been brisk. The European Union, represented by Michel Barnier, has set out in clear terms the timetable to be followed, its position on UK separation and on a temporary transition arrangement after March next year. Ireland’s interests have been front and centre throughout this process.

The EU this week published the legal text clarifying what was agreed for Ireland’s Border in the December separation agreement. It cuts straight to the chase and establishes “full alignment with those rules of the internal market and customs union which support north-south co-operation, the all-island economy and the protection of the Good Friday Agreement”.

This will take effect the moment the UK leaves and will stay in force until it is superseded by any subsequent agreement.

The EU has not ruled out the possibility of a cyber border for goods as mooted by some in the UK – involving number plate recognition, drones or other technological solutions – but it makes clear that since a cyber border cannot be in place by next year, the all-Ireland customs union will come into force.

And it will stay in force until the EU and UK agree that any new arrangement can effectively protect the EU internal market and safeguard the Good Friday Agreement.

There is no fudge. December’s words have been given a precise meaning. The text leaves no wriggle room.

Now we are coming to the big step – the future EU-UK trade deal. Here, the London-London negotiation is still raging. British Prime Minister Theresa May’s need to placate both hard and soft Brexiteers has made it difficult for her to move. This has been hard work and she has had to show super-human patience, but it seems the logjam is about to be broken.

The one London actor that has not yet had its hour upon the Brexit stage is Westminster. There have been important debates, but these have been about procedure; on the substance of separation and transition, Westminster has not sought to oppose the prime minister.

Now Westminster is moving onto the substance of the trade arrangements and it’s clear that this time there will be a fight. Put simply, MPs will have to decide whether they back ‘managed divergence’ or throw their weight behind some form of customs union.

The EU has given an initial reaction to the idea of managed divergence: it is a non-starter.

For the EU, cherry-picking is cherry-picking even if you dress it up as managed divergence. Expect an EU reply in the form of a proposal for a straightforward trade deal for goods, like that for Canada or South Korea.

Mrs May has had to devote a good deal of energy to educating the hard Brexiteers in her Cabinet on the facts of life.

First, she is still educating them about Ireland: 62 Brexit extremists in the House of Commons – including former Northern Ireland secretary Owen Paterson – are prepared to scrap the Good Friday Agreement if it hinders the walk-away Brexit they crave.

Second, she has been forced to remind many of her troops that the UK’s financial obligations have to be respected – including settling all outstanding bills and the cost of any transition period.

But by far the biggest part of the education is that Brexit is not only an action but also a policy.

TOO many people in Britain’s governing party have seen Brexit only as an action, like leaping into the swimming pool. One second you’re on the springboard, next second you’re in the water; one second you’re an EU member state, next second you’re a third country. We might call it the “sink or swim” school of policy.

But if sinking is automatic, swimming isn’t – it has to be learned.

So Brexit is also the policy you follow once you’re in the pool, once you’re a third country. This is a part of the Brexiteers’ education that, by the look of things, is going to continue for some time yet.

The inescapable fact of business life in modern inter-connected markets is that there are rules and you have to abide by them – whether you set them or not. And the EU is frequently the rule-setter for the rest of the world.

‘Managed divergence’ will place the UK back at square one when it comes to trade; hustling to sign deals that would pale in comparison to those it currently enjoys as an EU member.

The best possible trade agreement for the UK is the Union’s single market; in second place would be a customs union; in a distant third place is the ‘Global Britain’ network of free trade agreements.

It is to be hoped that the sensible voices will win out, and the UK will choose to swim rather than sink.

Prime Minister Theresa May’s need to placate both hard and soft Brexiteers has made it difficult for her to move. This has been hard work and she has had to show super-human patience, but it seems the log jam is about to be broken