Expelling diplomats is not way to hurt Putin

PERHAPS it was inevitable that Ireland would join the biggest wave of expulsions of Russian diplomats. And it is also true that an international show of solidarity was the appropriate response to the nerve-agent attack on a former spy and his daughter in the UK. The regime of Vladimir Putin has become more brazen; but to launch what was effectively a chemical gas attack in the heart of a European city was a step too far.

But for all that, President Putin is likely to be none too perturbed. Cold shoulders he can live with. If the British really want to lay down a marker they would go after some of the €650bn in state-backed assets held outside Russia.

A tit-for-tat chain reaction of expulsions from embassies is likely to follow as Moscow responds. That relationships between the West and Russia are reverting to Cold War levels of frostiness is hugely regrettable. But Moscow has been playing for increasingly high stakes; interfering with democratic campaigns and targeting election results around the globe, deploying an army of hackers and trolls online comes at a price.

The Russian leader’s power base is leveraged off the support of billionaire oligarchs and vast personal wealth. So long as his finances remain untouched, the return home of a few diplomats will hardly keep him awake at night.

Ideally, it would be far better to get along, but the right terms require at the very least mutual respect. And there is scant evidence of this coming from the Kremlin.

Russia has put too much energy into disrupting Western governments and elections, interfering with its neighbours, such as Ukraine, to conclude otherwise.

Mr Putin needs to know that there are lines that must not be crossed. Sending home a clutch of spies might be seen as some small show of resolve, but it is unlikely to be enough.