Fail to plan, plan to fail – time for IRFU to look at succession stakes and Schmidt replacement

BARRING an unlikely turnaround, the Joe Show will come to an end at the conclusion of next year’s World Cup in Japan and the most important item on IRFU performance director David Nucifora’s agenda is planning beyond that point.

According to a report in yesterday’s ‘Sunday Independent’, the Ireland coach is high on a list of potential candidates the RFU has drawn up should they need to replace Eddie Jones after the tournament.

Schmidt’s assistant Andy Farrell is also likely to be amongst the options being considered since the union’s chief executive Steve Brown said that an English coach working within an existing international set-up is also on their radar.

Jones, of course, only signed a contract extension to 2021 and is reported to be heavily involved in his own succession plan.

The fact that they are openly talking about it shows that the race for the best and brightest is under way. The IRFU can’t be caught short.

In Wales and New Zealand there have been discussions about the next move when Warren Gatland and Steve Hansen exit, but the debate has been largely silent in this neck of the woods.

Perhaps fans and pundits are enjoying the Schmidt-inspired good times too much to consider them ending, but the union has no such luxury.

Nucifora’s first mission is to go to Schmidt (right, above) and attempt to convince him to stay.

An Irish citizen who has lived here for almost a decade across two spells, he has a deep connection with the country and he has members of his family living on both sides of the world.

However, his comments before the Six Nations suggest he is of a mind to return to his homeland where he will be welcomed with open arms.

If he does, Nucifora will have a job on his hands finding someone to maintain the standards Ireland’s most successful coach has set.

At least, unlike Matt O’Connor, the new man won’t have the Kiwi operating less than a kilometre down the road, a situation that was ultimately a large factor in his Leinster exit after just two seasons. Players still speak highly of the Australian who delivered the PRO12 title in his first year and guided Leinster to

the Champions Cup semi-final in his second, but whose public disquiet at the Irish system cost him dear.

Who will it be?

In 2016, when Schmidt was mulling over whether to extend his contract to remain until 2019, Nucifora said the contingency plan was to promote from within the Irish system and he namechecked Rassie Erasmus, Les Kiss, Pat Lam and Andy Farrell as examples of the “strong talent pool of coaches” in Ireland.

In the space of less than two years, the landscape has changed utterly and, of that quartet, only Farrell remains in situ.

Although the 2015 World Cup with England remains a black mark on his CV, the defence coach appears the most obvious choice, even if he has little headcoaching experience.

A strong voice who is hugely respected by the players, he would offer continuity having served as assistant for three seasons. Reuniting Farrell with his old England boss Stuart Lancaster would also be a logical choice for Nucifora to consider.

Again, the disastrous home World Cup is a relevant issue but the Leinster senior coach has earned rave reviews and will take plenty of the plaudits if his side can overcome Racing 92 and win the Champions Cup in two weeks’ time.

That partnership looks the most realistic, no one else within the Irish system looks ready to step up.

Of course, if you look beyond these shores there are other competitors like Mark McCall and Conor O’Shea (left, below), and New Zealand assistant Ian Foster could be an interesting option if Schmidt beats him to the All Black job.

Nucifora hasn’t spoken publicly since September and is not due to do so again until June, but it is likely that discussions and planning are already under way.

Managing the transition after the departure of such a successful, influential and demanding coach will be a mighty challenge.