Watch out for Tory Brexiteers who want no deal
WARNINGS about Brexit are coming thick and fast. This week, Michel Barnier, the Frenchman who is leading the EU side in the exit negotiations, warned that the talks with Britain could break down. That would lead to chaos next March when Brexit actually happens.
Last week, former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern warned of a Halloween surprise. He was referring to the possibility that other EU countries change their tune on Brexit at the last possible moment, generally agreed to be next October. In that scenario, the no-Irish-Border pledge would be thrown overboard. Consider the Ahern warning first. Thus far, there has been strong support across the EU for Irish demands that Brexit leads to absolutely no change to the Border on this island. There has been almost no wavering among the 26 countries involved. Despite this, Irish officials are hyper-alert to any change in position by any partner country. They have reason to be watchful. You don’t have to go far to hear their counterparts in other capitals wonder quietly about the wisdom of taking such a hard line with London.
But here’s the thing: those officials are from smaller countries for whom Brexit is not a major strategic concern. Because it is not a vital interest to them, they are not going to make a major issue of it.
The two EU countries which think and act strategically are France and Germany. They have calculated it is in their respective and collective interests to push London hard. Barnier himself, along with Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, are – to borrow a phrase – fully aligned with this position.
Having maintained that position so publicly and over such a long period, they would appear to be caving in to Brexiteer demands if they were to back down. As such, the risk of the Government ending up isolated and having to backtrack on its absolutist stance on the Border would appear limited.
Now, what of the Barnier warning made this week on a visit to Dundalk?
Yet again, the Frenchman stressed that if the Irish and EU sides were not happy with what London signs up to regarding the post-Brexit Irish Border, Britain would have a cold turkey Brexit early next year. Even the 21-month transition period, agreed in principle by both sides in order to allow Britain to ease itself out of the union, would go by the wayside.
The consensus among those involved in the talks on the EU side is that – one way or the other – Britain will blink first. Faced with a cliff edge and a fundamentally weak position vis-à-vis a united EU, UK Prime Minister Theresa May will pull back from the brink. In order to do this, she, or another British prime minister, will have to row back, including on the UK’s oft-repeated commitment to leave the EU’s customs union.
I sincerely hope that happens. But there are a number of reasons to be extremely concerned that it won’t, and that instead the hardest and most damaging Brexit will happen.
Chief among these reasons is what is going on in London. Because British cabinet ministers and Conservative MPs cannot agree among themselves what sort of Brexit to seek, negotiating with them is proving almost impossible.
For the Irish and EU sides, the best analogy may be how one deals with a drunk. Never expect an inebriated person to act in their own rational interests. Nor should one be too confrontational or even too assertive because drunks can easily lash out.
There are a number of lashing-out Brexit scenarios. If May rows back on the customs union red line, there are enough hard Brexiteer MPs to trigger a challenge to her leadership, something they warned of only yesterday. She could very well be replaced by someone who actually wants a no-deal Brexit.
Many of the hard Brexit MPs advocate walking away from the talks. That would be the worst outcome for Ireland as it would lead to the hardest possible Brexit. Economic disruption would be maximised. Dublin-London relations would get even worse. Relations between the communities in Northern Ireland would polarise further. And everyone would end up with the hardest of borders on this island.
Despite Barnier explicitly raising the risk of this happening this week, it is under-appreciated on the EU side. That is because the mindset of those who are involved is shaped by long experience in EU negotiations. That experience teaches that deals are always done in the end.
THE dynamic in the Brexit negotiations is very different. It is a divorce. It is not a Brussels-style negotiation in which walking away is not an option. The mindset – that deals are always eventually ground out – is causing the risk of collapse to be underestimated.
I have made this point to quite a number of officials – Irish and non-Irish – involved in the talks. None has disagreed.
Negotiating with British cabinet ministers and Conservative MPs is proving almost impossible ... the best analogy may be how one deals with a drunk. Never expect an inebriated person to act in their own rational interest