Varadkar must fight our corner – and take nothing for granted
ATTEMPTING to ascribe a narrative or even a plot to the Brexit drama is becoming increasingly pointless as the curtain rises on another “crunch” EU showdown. As has always been feared, the longer the saga goes on, the lower down the agenda it falls in order of importance as other crises threaten to supersede it.
Small wonder then that Taoiseach Leo Varadkar was sounding hot under the collar – heatwave or none – even before leaving for Brussels.
“Beware the fury of a patient man,” wrote John Dryden, and no one could deny that Mr Varadkar has been eventempered to date.
But there does come a point when speaking softly into the void has to end, and that point has long been reached. Mr Varadkar has warned that the Brexit withdrawal agreement and the two-year transition are now at risk.
London simply must progress agreement on the so-called backstop to avoid a hard Border.
The truth is that Ireland, Britain, and the EU no longer have the luxury of fixating exhaustively and exclusively on Brexit. Migration and its impact on the EU has become so contentious that it represents an existential crisis for the bloc. As Chancellor Merkel put it yesterday: “Europe has many challenges but migration could end up determining Europe’s destiny.”
Whatever about the destiny of the EU, the issue seems to have put paid to any future prospects Ms Merkel has of remaining in office.
IF they were already at odds over Brexit, migration has opened up even deeper divisions between eastern, western, northern and southern countries. It is somewhat ironic given the fact that migrant arrivals are down and far lower than the heights of 2015’s crisis. But EU leaders are hardening their stance and have turned on each other.
The strongly anti-migrant governments in Italy and Austria have added their voices to the long-held opposition of the Visegrad countries of Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland. Chancellor Merkel could easily pay a heavy price for the generosity she showed in 2015 when the crisis in Syria and Iraq brought hundreds of thousands to the shores of Europe.
As she said: “If Europe fails on the question of refugees, then it won’t be the Europe we wished for.”
Back then, when she was being baited about how Europe might make space for thousands of refugees she answered: “We will cope.”
Her optimism may have been misplaced in light of recent unsettling trends, as EU member states look more to their own selfish interests and shared values are sacrificed. Ms Merkel, 2015’s ‘Time’ magazine Woman of the Year, now has more in common with Theresa May, tenuously clinging to power in a party at war with itself. It was inevitable that the first day of the summit would have a strong focus on the fallout from the migration challenge.
But this is also a crucial point for Brexit negotiations, and the UK can hardly be surprised that it is being reprimanded for dragging its feet. There is no choice but to agree the Irish protocol by autumn. It is also evident that the appalling vista of a no-deal scenario is now a possibility, as renewed calls for member states to increase their preparation for such an outcome illustrate. A deal can be done, but nothing should be taken for granted.
Mr Varadkar has hinted he might just be tempted to go to the country to get a stronger mandate for negotiations.
If he is looking for advice on gambling all on a result that sees him romping home on the back of a grateful electorate, Mrs May might shout him the odds.