History beckons for Dubs and forwards can make it happen
LAST May in the Irish Independent championship preview magazine, I predicted Tipperary and Kerry respectively for the All-Ireland hurling and football titles.
Tipperary duly delivered, but I suspect I was wrong about Kerry, which is why I’m changing tack now and opting for Dublin to go where no other team has gone by winning the five-in-a-row.
So why predict Kerry in the first place? I did so because I believed they had the forwards to present Dublin with greater problems than any other opposition they encountered on their four-in-a-row adventures.
I felt that David Moran had a big campaign in him at midfield, even good enough to counter Brian Fenton in the likely event that they met.
And the defence? It had wobbled against Mayo in the Allianz League final, conceding 3-11, but in the earlier games there were definite signs that it was solidifying.
No goals against them in five of seven Division 1 outings and an average concession of 13 points looked an impressive indicator of substantial improvement in security.
Obviously, it was going to be more difficult for them on quicker grounds against peak-fit opposition in the championship, but nonetheless the falloff was surprising.
Cork took them for 3-10 in the Munster final; Donegal scored 1-20 in the Super 8s and Tyrone returned 0-18 in the semi-final – it would have been higher with slicker finishing.
That’s why I can’t stay with Kerry to end Dublin’s amazing run. There’s every reason to believe that David Clifford, Paul Geaney and Co will run in a potentially match-winning score, but it’s difficult to see the Kerry defence restricting Con O’Callaghan, Paul Mannion etc to less at the other end.
Misleading
For the record, Dublin have scored an average of 2-21 to Kerry’s 1-17 in this championship. Previous returns on their own can produce a misleading impression going into an All-Ireland final and that’s certainly the case when one of the teams is bidding to take a place in history.
Still, we can only go on what we’ve seen and, so far, the evidence suggests that the Kerry defence isn’t sufficiently geared to cope with what’s coming their way tomorrow.
That’s not to say that Dublin’s rearguard is locked tight either. They are still susceptible to the high ball and can be moved around quite a lot too.
However, with an overall team capacity to control so much possession, it’s difficult for the opposition to get at them often enough for the fault lines to be seriously exposed.
Kerry are better placed to do that than anyone else, but will it be enough to end an unbeaten run that extends back to the start of the 2015 championship? Probably not.
Of course, there’s one very large imponderable, which could change the entire dynamic. Dublin have been airily dismissing the notion that the prospect of conquering a previously unreached summit will impact on them.
Fair enough – they are hardly going to say, ‘Yes, this five-in-a-row business is bothering us’. The truth is that they, no more than anyone else, do not know how it will affect them.
History shows that neither Kerry footballers in 1982 nor Kilkenny hurlers in 2010 came anywhere near their best in their five-in-a-row All-Ireland finals. Was it down to history’s heavy hand weighing down on them?
We don’t know, but since both came back to win quite a few All-Irelands in subsequent years, it’s fair to assume that the five-in-a-row was a factor in reducing their efficiency.
It could well exert the same negative influence on Dublin tomorrow, but if it doesn’t completely unsettle them they can complete an unbeaten 36-match run by placing the blue flag on the fivein-a-row peak.