Race against time for deal on Brexit
:: Caution urged as ‘scale of the challenge has not been diminished’
A RACE against time is now under way to secure a Brexit deal that will allow Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar to claim victory before Halloween.
Both governments are talking up the chances of an agreement – but sources told the Irish Independent that a ‘technical extension’ may still be needed to get a deal across the line.
The British prime minister is believed to have made concessions on Northern Ireland’s alignment with the EU customs union, which could remove the need for checks on this island.
Mr Johnson has said he will take the UK out of the EU on October 31 “do or die”. However, EU sources say his position has softened.
It is understood senior DUP figures have been in contact with Downing Street since the apparent breakthrough was secured by Mr Johnson and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.
Sources told the Irish Independent that their position on avoiding a border in the Irish Sea had not changed.
It is believed that the possibility of a referendum on the North’s economic relationship with the EU is one of the measures “in play” as part of the current talks. Any deal struck will need majority support in Westminster, including from the DUP’s MPs who back Mr Johnson’s government.
Sources in Dublin cautioned that “a long weekend” lies ahead. One senior source said: “The scale of the challenge should not be diminished. If a deal happens at this stage, it will be huge.”
A RACE against time is now under way to secure a Brexit deal that will allow Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar to claim victory before Halloween.
Both governments are talking up the chances of an agreement – but sources told the Irish Independent that a ‘technical extension’ may still be needed to get a deal across the line.
The British prime minister is believed to have made concessions on Northern Ireland’s alignment with the EU customs union which could remove the need for checks on this island.
Mr Johnson has said he will take the UK out of the EU on October 31 “do or die”.
However, EU sources say his position has softened in recent days as the need for a “practical exit” became clear.
Mr Johnson declined to give a direct answer when twice asked by reporters if Northern Ireland would leave the EU customs union on October 31.
As things stand, an orderly Brexit requires approval from the DUP who have propped up the Conservative government over the past two years.
It is understood senior figures in the party have been in contact with Downing Street since the apparent breakthrough was secured.
Sources told the Irish Independent that their position on avoiding a border in the Irish Sea had not changed.
However, it may be difficult for the DUP to reject a promise that the “people of Northern Ireland” will have a say on the situation into the future.
It is believed that the possibility of a referendum on the North’s economic relationship with the EU is one of the measures “in play” as part of the current talks.
A DUP source confirmed there had been ongoing engagement with Downing Street in recent days and Arlene Foster has spoken directly with Mr Johnson.
A second DUP source said there had been “assurance [the] position stands and recognition our votes [are] needed” from Downing Street in the past 48 hours.
Any deal struck by the UK and the EU will need majority support in Westminster, including from the DUP’s 10 MPs who back Mr Johnson’s government under a confidence and supply deal.
Sources in Dublin cautioned that “a long weekend” lies ahead as both sides work through the detail of a possible agreement.
One senior source said: “The scale of the challenge should not be diminished. If a deal happens at this stage, it will be huge.”
The EU agreed yesterday to enter intense talks with Britain to try to break the deadlock. The move came at the end of a tumultuous week which started with a row between London and Brussels.
The position of Mr Varadkar in the talks has become a focal point for EU leaders. Up to now Ireland has always insisted that all negotiations would be carried out by Michel Barnier’s EU taskforce. However, Mr Varadkar has led the renewed optimism that a deal can be reached this month.
At the same time sources in Dublin said that while progress is being made, it may be “too late to have a fully formed deal” ready to present to other EU leaders next Thursday.
“Nobody knows. We are in a process. Things look very different from this time last week but the gap was huge to start with,” said an Irish source,
It has been widely reported that negotiations between Mr Barnier and the UK side had entered the so-called ‘tunnel’ – an EU mechanism whereby everybody except those directly involved are shut out.
However, sources told this newspaper that the ‘tunnel’ will be “much more open on this occasion”.
It’s expected that EU capitals will be given sporadic updates on the talks ahead of a meeting of foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Tuesday.
Mr Johnson said yesterday that there was “a way to go”.
A diplomat and an EU official said Mr Barnier had told member states that Britain had changed its position and now accepted that its proposed replacement of the so-called “backstop” cannot involve a customs border between the Republic and the six counties.
Separately, two senior EU diplomats told Reuters news agency the possible solution could include two elements: keeping Northern Ireland inside the UK’s customs regime while also carrying out any customs and regulatory checks together.
This would result in a border down the Irish Sea which has long been viewed as the ‘obvious’ answer to the impasse in Dublin but as toxic by the DUP.
In a sign of the precarious nature of the talks, the DUP said it has always indicated that the UK must leave the EU “as one nation”.