TBILISI WILL DETERMINE IRISH FATE
Victory on familiar territory would put Ireland in an extremely strong position to achieve qualification from Group D. Anything less and the pressure will be cranked up ahead of intimidating trip to Geneva
THIS is the double-header that will shape the direction of Mick McCarthy’s second stint as Ireland manager. Tbilisi will either represent the end of the beginning, or the beginning of the end.
McCarthy has made the point a number of times in recent weeks that he’s approaching 1,000 games in management, and he has always operated at a level where the margins are fine and a couple of matches can alter the tone of a year.
Back-to-back away games in Georgia and Switzerland slot perfectly in that category.
The fixtures are spaced out, but these tight major tournament qualifying groups all end with similar emotions to promotion fights and relegation battles.
Ultimately, it’s the winners that get to write the history. Every decision is vindicated if the bottom line is achieved.
Brisk
Group D has been played out over the course of a calendar year thanks to the introduction of the UEFA Nations League but, for Ireland, it’s still felt like a brisk jog that is about to break into a sprint to the finish.
In the best-case scenario, McCarthy’s men can seal automatic qualification for Euro 2020 on Tuesday evening in Geneva. In the worst case, they could be dead and buried.
The most realistic scenario is that they end up somewhere in between, with Denmark’s visit in November deciding everything. All the permutations will become clearer tonight, but the straightforward situation is that Ireland will be firmly in control of their destiny if they collect three points from this leg of the trip. Anything less will stiffen the task ahead of them considerably.
Denmark’s draw in these parts last month has opened the door, and this is an opportunity that a clinical team must seize. The old cliché about taking one game at a time has never been more relevant, and the Irish camp are fully on top of it judging by McCarthy’s words across the week.
Forget about saving something for Switzerland. Beating Georgia will make that a free hit rather than something to fear. That’s easier said than done, although Irish teams have generally managed to do so.
Deceptive
For all the problems they have caused, Georgia have only taken points off Ireland on one occasion; it just so happens that it was the last visit here in 2017 when Shane Duffy’s early opener was deceptive. The guests lost their way in a 1-1 draw.
March’s confident win against Georgia was flagged as evidence of a difference in approach between McCarthy and Martin O’Neill, with Ireland more purposeful in their attacking play and covering more ground in general according to the stats.
It goes without saying that a similar approach will be beneficial here, but the early kick-off (5.0 local, 2.0 Irish) means that heat might just be a slight factor.
McCarthy mentioned that in passing in his pre-match gig at the Dinamo Stadium before rowing back when pressed specifically on the subject and asserting that the best way to control the tempo is to retain possession.
“It’s about having the ball and having a bit of a breather with the ball, passing it and keeping a hold of it and not necessarily going forward,” he explained. “They are good in possession . If they get good possession – which they try to do from throw-ins, goal kicks and restarts – they will make us work. They make you work, they shift you, they pass it quickly and slickly. So we have to do the same. But we will be playing the same way – we won’t be changing.”
The reason for encouragement is that his key midfield personnel should be in good physical condition.
Last month’s display against Switzerland was poor, and while old failings in the area of creativity and ball retention were apparent, McCarthy also believed that a shortage of match practice had affected that department.
Georgian coach Vladimir Weiss drew a few laughs by referring to Ireland’s Michael Flatley-style approach, a tribute to their “phenomenal” battery power.
But it was noticeable that Switzerland were able to waltz through at key junctures of the match.
Conor Hourihane and Jeff Hendrick are now back in favour at Aston Villa and Burnley respectively, while Glenn Whelan has settled into the groove at Hearts after his belated move.
There can be no excuses about their preparations this time around.
It’s the back four that is more of a concern, given that Richard Keogh has checked out of the picture completely and
Enda Stevens is suspended.
John Egan is the natural stand-in for Keogh, and McCarthy is clearly ready to pitch Shane Duffy straight in after his recovery from a calf issue. It backs up the point that holding something back for Switzerland would be an error as the momentum will be drawn from this encounter.
Stevens’ woe gives Matt Doherty a chance to contribute to this campaign, which is no bad thing even if he hasn’t operated at leftback for three years.
That said, favourable mentions for Blackburn’s Derrick Williams suggest there is another contender for that slot.
It would be a surprise given that Williams was initially on standby to travel in case Duffy missed out. The luckless Greg Cunningham, who tore his ACL last weekend, is Blackburn’s left full.
“I’ve been impressed with Derek, he’s trained exceptionally well,” said McCarthy. “But Matt Doherty can play either full-back, he did it for a couple of years for Wolves very successfully, so it’s nice to have a few options.”
Georgia have posed Ireland plenty of issues by demonstrating their technical prowess, but they haven’t always translated that to chances. They are not a prolific outfit. Ireland should have the know-how to shut them out, which switches the focus to the other end.
Aaron Connolly’s exploits last weekend have attracted attention beyond Ireland. McCarthy smiled when the second question from a Georgian journalist was if Connolly would make his debut.
The English news desks with reporters on the Irish beat had also requested further information about the status of the teenager with Richard Dunne’s ‘Herald’ column comparing him to Robbie Keane attracting attention.
Dunne noted similarities in a “carefree” playing style that ruffles the feathers of experienced defenders.
“If you don’t mind I will wait and see him have a few games and see how he does before I start comparing him to Robbie Keane in any shape or form,” said McCarthy.
“I would love to be comparing him to Robbie at some stage but I’m not going to start that now.”
The percentage call is that his bow will come off the bench, with James McClean, Callum Robinson and James Collins primed for attacking responsibility.
Collins’ experience and resilience has put him in line to take David McGoldrick’s place through the middle. This a week where Ireland need strong characters to emerge. Flatley-style energy will not be enough to knock the Swiss out of their rhythm, but it may well be sufficient here. Prediction: Georgia 0, Ireland 1