Sinn Féin a twist of history away from power

THERE was a time not so long ago when a number one for Sinn Féin amounted to little more than a ‘protest vote’. As is so often the case, the party was happy to sit on the sidelines after the 2016 election. But circumstances have changed in recent weeks and it is now just one more twist of history away from power.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil routinely and robustly rule out entering coalition with Mary Lou McDonald’s troops, yet the idea is not as unimaginable as it was seven months ago, when it lost almost half of its local authority representation.

Everybody knows the old argument that pre-election red lines are easily disposed of once ‘the people have spoken’.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar believes Sinn Féin is not a normal party. He argues it is soft on crime and hard on taxes.

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin is even more vitriolic in his claims that Ms McDonald is taking orders from “old Provos”.

But let’s roll the clock forward two weeks and imagine the current opinion polls play out in real life. That would put Mr Martin in a commanding position to become Taoiseach while Mr Varadkar would be grappling for a way to cling to high office.

I don’t believe for one second that Mr Martin will lead a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin government – but don’t rule out such a coalition occurring anyway.

Part of the reason the leader is publicly so anti-Shinners is that he knows some of his troops are open-minded on the price of getting back into Government Buildings.

Earlier this month, veteran Fianna Fáil TD Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher flirted with Sinn Féin.

And in the past others senior members, including Bobby Aylward, John McGuinness and Eamon Ó Cuív, have privately toyed with the idea.

It makes you wonder whether Mr Martin could suffer the same fate as ex-Green Party leader Trevor Sargent in 2007. Mr Sargent stuck to his promise to never do business with Fianna Fáil and promptly found himself handing over leadership so John Gormley could led them into coalition.

Over in Fine Gael, it could be the opposite story. In the corridors of Leinster House, the party’s senior ministers express genuine disdain for the party and its ‘shadowy figures’.

But Mr Varadkar appears to have an evolving attitude towards how ‘stable government’ works.

Prior to the 2016 vote, he wrote a withering column for the Irish Independent which warned voters that a grand coalition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil “would be a forced marriage with Sinn Féin holding the shotgun”.

Now he says it’s a reasonable option. Could he have a similar ‘enlightenment’ on Sinn Féin?

Sinn Féin is unlikely to be in government after this election, but the sands are shifting.