Kelly’s eye for power puts FG and FF on red alert for coalition
AVIDEO promoting Aodhán Ó Ríordáin’s appeal to younger voters contained an unintentionally ominous warning about his Labour Party leadership campaign.
Cian Kelly-Lyth, chair of Trinity Labour, bemoaned that only those who were members for 18 months had a vote in the contest “which cuts off a lot of young activists”.
Highlighting who can’t vote for you didn’t make for great campaigning. Nothing was left to chance by Alan Kelly. The constituency with the most paid-up members coming into the contest was his native Tipperary.
In Ó Ríordáin’s Dublin Bay North constituency, there were even a few unpaid memberships with therefore no votes – a cardinal sin.
“Kelly was ringing every councillor in the country while Aodhán and Ged Nash were going for lattés,” a Labour source noted.
Kelly was formally declared the winner just before midnight after winning 1,047 votes (54.7pc) to Ó Ríordáin’s 868 votes (45.3pc).
Ó Riordáin called for unity after he had conceded to his rival.
Kelly had this race won before a vote was canvassed. He started the day with a lead as he had the vast bulk of Tipperary and from Willie Penrose’s in Westmeath, two power bases in the party outside of Dublin. Kelly’s organisational skills are unsophisticated and practical.
His success is being attributed to a number of factors. His exclusion from the race four years ago when Brendan Howlin took the reins certainly benefited him.
Party members also wanted a more robust leader. Kelly wasn’t shy about talking bluntly about the party organisation and how it translated into a below-par general election result. An example cited was none of three candidates afforded a profile in last year’s European election, Alex White, Sheila Nunan and Dominic Hannigan, running for the general election. Yet Kelly was noticeably helping Labour Seanad candidates, even if they weren’t supporting him.
“There’s a sense Labour members have been fed bulls**t. There’s been a protectionist policy of not trying to talk honestly about the state of the party and Kelly tapped into that,” a party source said.
Kelly’s reputation for brute force isn’t hidden, nor is Ó Ríordáin’s right-on liberalism.
The choice seemed to be whether members wanted what has been described as a leader for the Labour Party or the liberal party.
“I haven’t been surprised by anyone who has said they are voting for Aodhán. I have been surprised by those who said they were voting for Alan. Aodhán would bore me to f***in’ death. I just couldn’t cope with that level of political correctness. Alan is authentic to the traditional old Labour, the constructive left as opposed to the destructive hard-left you see from the populist parties,” a party councillor said.
Lost in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, the Labour leadership race garnered greater attention in recent weeks as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil figures suggested the seemingly power-hungry Kelly would lead the party into coalition.
The argument being proffered is the public will remember who stepped up to lead when the country was emerging from a crisis.
The Green Party is wary, calling for a national unity government it knows won’t happen as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil won’t deal with Sinn Féin. It’s a big gamble.
Kelly wants to rejuvenate Labour, going into government now would risk killing it off completely. Yet he has been coy about his intentions.
“There’s a clear preference for opposition. It exists among the membership to not prop up Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and let others point the finger. Does it change at the 11th hour to prevent a second election? It would take an awful lot for that to break,” a supporter of Kelly said.
The whiff of five more years in office, the green jersey opinion poll surge and the absolute power of the crisis has restored Fine Gael’s bumptious pre-election demeanour.
Yes, Varadkar’s caretaker administration is handling the crisis well, implementing policies effectively and calmly, guiding the country through an unprecedented event.
The Government is also benefiting from the ‘rally round the flag effect’, a concept from US political science to explain increased short-run popular support for the president of the United States during periods of war or international crisis. Even leaders viewed as handling the Covid-19 crisis badly, like Giuseppe Conte in Italy or Boris Johnson in the UK, are still seeing a rise in approval ratings. Donald Trump is also getting a ‘Trump bump’ in the polls.
Voters in Ireland are no different as the public rallies around the institutions and leadership of the State.
Don’t count on it lasting indefinitely.
In case anybody had forgotten, Josepha Madigan gave everyone a reminder of the arrogance which saw Fine Gael get such a roasting in the general election.
Acquainted with taking the pulpit in her church to say Mass when the priest didn’t show up, the Fine Gael minister used the bully pulpit of the Government benches to chastise the Opposition for having the temerity to have the Dáil sit to raise valid points about the crisis. The levels of transparency certainly leave a lot to be desired and aren’t keeping pace with the photo opps.
The spin reached new levels of sham and shamelessness yesterday when Madigan hosted a press conference in Government Buildings on measures “to support wellness, creativity and culture” during the Covid-19 crisis. No, really, this did happen. Among the “measures” was inviting people to record clips of themselves singing lines from ‘Ireland’s Call’.
No, really, this did happen. Alan Kelly, Eamon Ryan and Micheál Martin for that matter have been well warned about what they are dealing with. The mask didn’t take long to slip from shiny new and humbled Fine Gael.
Kelly will serve a purpose though as the Greens will be left guessing about whether he will fill the void they are leaving in the government formation formula.
Spin hit new levels of shamelessness with Madigan’s press event