LEVEL 5 AVOIDED FOR NOW, BUT THIS IS A MAJOR WAKE-UP CALL
DR TONY HOLOHAN was the public voice of calm and reason when Covid19 first struck. After taking leave for family reasons, the chief medical officer returned to duty at the weekend to chair the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet). Widespread consternation was caused by Nphet’s recommendation that the whole country go to Level 5 restrictions.
Danny McCoy of the business lobby group Ibec got it right when he said the unexpected recommendation was greeted with “shock and awe”.
Only last Thursday, Nphet did not see the need for any other county to go even to Level 3, as applied in Dublin and Donegal. So what changed between Thursday and Sunday?
Dr Holohan explained the team’s reasoning when he met Coalition leaders yesterday. Even before they reported back to Cabinet, it was clear that Nphet’s recommendation would not be accepted. Instead, the whole country is being put on Level 3.
Nphet is an advisory body. Advisers advise and ministers decide – or they should, anyway. They certainly did yesterday, but they may well be forced to go to the next level if the numbers don’t improve.
The national incidence rate of the virus has more than trebled in a fortnight, from 31 cases per 100,000 to 108.9 per 100,000.
The chief medical officer said there are 31 outbreaks in nursing homes, with seven reported in the last week. He said there are 25 outbreaks among vulnerable groups, with ten in direct provision centres, seven among the Traveller community and others in homelessness services.
However, HSE chief executive Paul Reid – who is not a member of Nphet but is on a new oversight group – had an interesting take and may have read the public and politicians’ mood better.
He acknowledged that there were obvious concerns about the trends. In a tweet, he added that “we also know the impacts of severe & regular restrictions in society on the public health, wellbeing, mental health and the economy. Level 5 recommendation to Government has to be considered in this context too”.
It clearly was considered. Politicians’ instincts are naturally cautious, and they realise that the public is fatigued by restrictions. According to Dr Holohan, a “graduated approach” to Covid-19 rules will not work, but they decided otherwise.
His letter could have put the Government in a difficult situation as ministers finalise plans for next week’s Budget. They already have to deal with rising unemployment and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. Going to Level 5 would have added immeasurably to the public bill.
Thankfully, the insulting word ‘cocooning’ for the over-70s has been dropped from the discussions about new restrictions and we are now talking about a ‘circuit breaker’.
However, additional restrictions will be less effective if they don’t involve greater monitoring of people coming into the country and unless action is taken on an all-island basis. The rate across the Border is three times as high as ours and a concerted approach is needed.
Thankfully, the insulting word ‘cocooning’ for the over-70s has been dropped