New ‘Doomsday’ scenario looms unless there is dramatic change in coming weeks
IRELAND may be heading for a “doomsday” Covid-19 crisis level again unless a dramatic turnaround is made to halt the rapid deterioration towards more illness, hospitalisations and deaths, it emerged last night.
The spread of the virus has escalated further across the country since Sunday when the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) met and recommended the country enter Level 5 lockdown.
The next three weeks are crucial for people to change their behaviour and “save Christmas”, the Department of Health’s Covid-19 briefing was told.
Chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan, who was giving his first media briefing since his return to his post on Monday, and since the Government’s rejection of Nphet’s Level 5 recommendation, in favour of Level 3 said: “All key indicators of the disease have deteriorated further in the three days since the last meeting of Nphet on Sunday.
“Covid-19 is spreading in our community in a very worrying manner. We have to break these chains of transmission.”
There were 80 Covid-19 patients hospitalised in August, 206 in September and 77 so far in October, he added.
In August, four Covid-19 related deaths in total were reported, rising to 34 in September and yesterday there were eight for October. A further 611 new cases of the disease were reported yesterday and five more deaths.
Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer, added: “Trends in case numbers and incidence are now being reflected in indicators of disease severity.
“The number of people in hospital has increased from 122 last Thursday to 156 this afternoon. There are currently 25 people in critical care compared to 20 one week ago.”
Prof Philip Nolan, of Maynooth University, who leads a team tracking the virus, warned case numbers and hospitalisations were growing exponentially.
The R number – which needs to be less than 1 – is now estimated at 1.2.
“If we fail to reduce viral transmission nationwide immediately, we could see 1,100-1,500 cases per day and 300-450 people in hospital by November 7.”
Dr Siobhán Ní Bhríain, consultant psychiatrist and HSE integrated care lead, added: “I urge everyone to remind themselves of what they can do on an individual level to suppress the virus and prevent a surge on hospital demands.
“Currently, the average length of stay of a Covid-19 patient is 20 days in hospital and 14 days in intensive care.
“Intensive care is the last stop in the care pathway for any illness. Focus on prevention and follow public health advice to ensure care pathways are available to as many people and treatments as possible.”
The briefing was told that while there are signs of stabilisation in Dublin it is still too early to say whether there is a definitive trend. Nphet meets today to review the picture and will make recommendations about Halloween. A key concern is that if there is a high rate of the virus in December - coupled with inevitable socialising – that the country could be engulfed in a major crisis.
Dr Holohan said the slide into more dangerous levels of the virus was not inevitable and everyone needed to make a collective effort to bring it down. He met with Garda Commissioner Drew Harris to discuss compliance.