Money will ultimately decide if 2021 Six Nations is moved – Brendan Fanning,

IF PREVIOUSLY you believed the only certainties in life were death, taxes and the Six Nations kicking off in early February, you may now be relying only on the first two. This unappealing vista has come into view courtesy of Six Nations chief executive Ben Morel opening the door to the immovable being moved. When Big Ben strikes, you know it has to be serious.

His rationale is that getting bums on seats might be an easier job the further away we get from our current state of reality denial, which is filling hospitals and hobbling economies, even though the Six Nations yesterday insisted no “formal discussions” around such a postponement have taken place.

In this country the blunt instrument of Garda-inspired traffic jams is being used to beat punters off the streets. In the boardroom of elite sport – and the Six Nations is the biggest show in rugby outside a World Cup – the prospect of shifting the championship is throwing a flag on the play.

Governments are expected to pick up the flag, wrap a few fat bundles of cash into it, and hand it back. They are being asked to do this at various designated points along the road.

Closest to home, IRFU chief executive Philip Browne did his bit in last month’s Zoom junction: “Unfortunately we may have to cut costs if we don’t get people through the turnstiles and revenues do not recover,” he warned.

“That’s going to impact ultimately on our ability to maintain the structures and personnel that we have put in place. The worst-case scenario if this goes on and on and on – which I don’t believe it will because I believe we will see some turnaround next year in terms of vaccines – but if this goes on indefinitely, you have to question whether the professional game is sustainable at all.”

To summarise his two paragraphs: job cuts. Another flag on the play for Government.

But Browne, a man of extraordinary longevity for a sporting CEO, knows the drill.

Of course the professional game will continue, but according to new rules. Those rules will be set by whoever is paying to broadcast the game – already evident in the way kick-off dates and times are scheduled – but their effect will be felt in the way the game is structured.

Sponsors

Will sponsors have a say in this? Yes, because sport is desperate for their involvement. Not just rugby.

The sports sponsorship business in this country has enjoyed double-digit growth over the last five years, with 70 per cent of that spend ending in the trouser pockets of the big three: GAA, IRFU and FAI.

Rugby is having the same problems

as the others, on two fronts: first, trying to maintain some value in the current deals given the way games have changed shape; and second, until some shape is restored they’ll find it hard to get new clients, even if some of them are in rude health.

It’s the current conversations that are dominating. Guinness, naturally enough, will demand most attention. They have not even completed two seasons of a six-year deal for the championship.

They got it at a decent price, but never reckoned on questioning its value so soon. Has the product been diminished? Of course.

Brewers like sport for lots of reasons, not least the opportunities they get to activate that sponsorship around matchday activity. Not much chance of that with shuttered pubs and stadia with gates closed.

Yes, their brand can be whacked up all over the ground, so at least the television viewer is clear on who is involved, but that’s only part of the picture.

It helps that Guinness have a long history of hitching their wagon to rugby.

So it’s easier for the Philip Brownes of the world to talk to those high up the Diageo food chain.

In Morel’s case it would be startling if he wasn’t offering his heavyweight clients an extension on the deal, or a better bundle of match tickets when gates reopen. Or whatever.

Most of all he’s telling them that rugby is moving heaven and earth to get the Guinness Six Nations to the finish line for 2020.

He may well do the same with regards the plans for 2021.

Don’t be surprised then if the Six Nations stays in its current slot, devalued and less attractive, but filling content space for the broadcaster. And still one of life’s certainties.