Guineas favourite Thunder Moon set to shine in Dewhurst

BOB CHAMPION, who famously won the 1981 Grand National on board Aldaniti having recovered from cancer, once said female riders are a danger to everyone else as they are simply not big or strong enough. That view still seems common enough, especially in relation to National Hunt racing where there’s a perception that female jockeys are not quite as good as their male counterparts.

In fairness, I think Irish racing followers are more supportive of the fairer sex having watched Rachael Blackmore,

Nina Carberry, Katie Walsh and the likes win plenty of races and perform just as good as, if not better, than the blokes at times.

In Britain, females are still underrated, but that’s good news for the shrewd punter with extra value available on the horses they ride. Take National Hunt races in Britain for example: Women jockeys win 10 per cent of their races on average while men win 11 per cent of their races. It could be argued that the 10 per cent figure is rather good considering women probably aren’t offered the best horses to ride.

But it gets really interesting on the exchanges where female jockeys have produced a profit if blindly backed in eight of the last 10 years. There’s been great value in handicaps, and blindly backing women riders in UK National Hunt handicaps in that period produced a huge profit of 1,382 points to Betfair SP.

Fair enough, a good chunk of that came from Tayarat, ridden by Alice Mills to win a handicap hurdle at a Betfair SP of 777/1 back in 2012 – but they’ve still produced an excellent return in other years, including 45pts so far in 2020. I’m not saying you should back any horse blindly, but it’s certainly food for thought.

It might not be an outsider, but nonetheless that brings me nicely to Lough

Kent, which is still a good price around 7/2 in the Campbell & Rowley Event Bars Handicap Chase at Hexham (3.03).

James Moffatt’s gelding will be ridden by the talented Charlotte Jones, claiming 7lbs, who knows the horse well and rode him many times, including a number of victories.

Now 11, he’s been going reasonably well without success the past year or so, but the handicapper has recently dropped his mark below 100, which gives him a great chance at getting back to winning ways today.

On the Flat, the Group One Darley Dewhurst Stakes for juveniles usually gives us a couple of horses to follow in big races next year and I’m on Joseph O’Brien’s (pictured) Thunder Moon here, around 11/4 (2.55 Newmarket).

Priced 7/1 for next year’s Guineas, the son of Zoffany managed to take a huge step up from a maiden victory to land a strong renewal of the National Stakes at the Curragh last month. That’s a very promising piece of form, and he showed a lovely turn of foot suggesting he’s top class.

In the Cesarewitch Handicap (3.35 Newmarket), Leoncavallo is tipped at 8/1 or thereabouts for David Pipe under Andrew Mullen. A versatile sort, he won a novice chase in July and he followed that up with a very convincing handicap win back on the level at Haydock last month.

Lone Eagle catches the eye at 4/1 in the Group Three Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (1.45 Newmarket). A son of Galileo, Martyn Meade’s colt has won two of his three races, improving each time, and looks one for the notebook.

Finally, consider backing The Tin Man around 3/1 for the Group Three Coral Bengough Stakes at York (1.0), which is taking a step down from Group One company.