Don’t be afraid to take a chance on The Cashel Man at an each-way price
THE last time I had a ‘double carpet’ winner (33/1) was nearly a year ago in the Grand National Trial at Haydock, and a mate of mine, who wouldn’t back it, complained afterwards that he’s never landed a big one. He also confessed that he never backs horses at those prices as he assumes they are no-hopers, and usually goes for ones at the shorter end of the market. You can’t win with some people.
I’ve another mate who won’t back favourites, citing the ‘value’ argument. To be honest, the one that backs horses at the shorter end of the market is probably better off in the long run, and the figures show that outsiders don’t win half as much as the market suggests they should.
Take those 33/1 shots for example; backing a horse at those odds suggest it’s got a 2.94pc chance of winning. But my data from 2008 onwards shows that they have an actual win rate of 1.41pc. In other words, they win less than half the number of races they are supposed to.
Of course, bookmakers have to get some profit – so there’s always a built-in ‘over-round’ to every book – but if you are backing outsiders, you are probably best to do it on the exchanges. Indeed, 33/1 shots with the bookies have an average Betfair SP of just over 90/1 which is a far more realistic reflection of their chances.
On the other end of the scale, horses priced even money, which in theory should win half of the time, have an actual win rate of 45pc. In other words, they win 90pc of the races that they should, according to the odds.
Therefore, it probably makes more sense to back horses at the shorter end of the market, as on average you’d lose far less per euro staked. The downside is that, like my mate, you’ll never feel the thrill of a massive payday on an outsider. Personally, I think value can be found at both ends of the market and there are times when I’ll back a horse which is priced 33/1 if I feel it has a greater chance of winning than 2.94pc.
Value betting is as simple as that really, and I reckon The Cashel Man, which was originally chalked up at 33/1 in the early markets for this afternoon’s Listed Ladbrokes Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle at Kempton (3.30) is one such horse. As of yesterday evening, he was 20/1 but that’s still a nice price.
Trading at 8/1, stablemate Glynn is obviously the fancied runner here from Cashel Nicky Man Henderson’s has gone well yard but around The Kempton in the past, although I do admit he was below form here when last of 10 runners on his penultimate start in a handicap hurdle off a mark of 147.
The assessor dropped him 4lb for that and he finished mid-division when last seen in a handicap at Newbury in November which was an improvement.
He’s down another couple of pounds to 141 today, which gives him a decent chance of a place at the least, and I’m happy to have a go here eachway at what I reckon are very decent odds. Everglow, Misty Whisky and One True King are others with chances. From one end of the market to the other, Imperial Aura looks nailed-on around 5/6 in the Grade Two Ladbrokes Silviniaco Conti Chase (2.55 Kempton). I was lucky enough to back Kim Bailey’s gelding when he won a handicap chase at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival at 4/1, and he’s since added two more victories to his CV including a five-length defeat of Itchy Feet in the 1965 Chase at Ascot last time. Master Tommytucker looks the biggest threat to the bet in the four-runner field and trades at 3/1 at the time of writing. Paul Nicholls’ gelding is now aged 10 but has won a couple of races this term and has excuses for his seventh place in a Cheltenham handicap last month.
On the same card, Younevercall catches the eye around 4/1 in the Grade Two Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle (2.20). A decent fourth to Paisley Park in Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot last time at 33/1, that came on the back of a second place in a handicap here following wind surgery and a 506-day break.
Another one trained by Kim Bailey, the 10-year-old has clearly retained plenty of ability, and I was sure he would be the market leader here.
That honour goes to Mcfabulous, which was available at 11/8 yesterday evening. Paul Nicholls’ seven-year-old won at this level back in October, but finished behind Thyme Hill and Paisley Park in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last time.
We’ve Grade One action to look forward to at Chepstow with the Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (1.25) where Gary Moore’s Nassalam is the early market leader around evens.
Import
A French import, he’s won two juvenile races with ease but he was priced 1/12 in the last one so I’m not so sure we learned a whole lot, and stepping up to this level might not be as straightforward as the betting suggests.
Instead, a chance is taken on
Elpham Valley for Fergal O’Brien under Paddy Brennan, expected to go off around 8/1. He has plenty of experience from the Flat, winning two of his nine races, and he got his hurdle career off to the best possible start when taking a juvenile race at Sandown last month at 11/2.
Finally, in the Welsh Grand National (3.10 Chepstow), Springfield Fox could have more to come and is worth a punt around 7/1. Trained by Tom George, the eight-year-old won all three of his point-to-point races and although the majority of his races under rules have been in hurdles, he’s won two of his three chases to date and remains unexposed.