Defensive certainty gives City edge in title battle
Liverpool’s decision not to reinforce back line after Van Dijk injury looks costly
WITH just five points separating the top six, it is the most open Premier League title race this century. We have been here before but it was back in 1996-’97 that sixth-placed Aston Villa were similarly just five points off the top. That was after 20 games, a couple more than the situation this time round, and ended with Manchester United winning the league with just 75 points – which remains the lowest total to finish first in the Premier League. So it appears a similar tally will take the title this season.
But how will it end? Here are my predictions.
6 EVERTON
There is an expectation that Everton will be caught by Chelsea and maybe even Arsenal but what should encourage them and their supporters is not just the inconsistency of others but the fact that manager Carlo Ancelotti has found different ways to win in recent weeks.
Winning five of their last six league games has brought them back into contention with the victory over Wolves achieved without Dominic Calvert-Lewin or a recognised centre-forward. Ancelotti’s experience is key, of course, and he has been in this position before of negotiating a team into European competition.
He does not win many leagues but he does fight at the top and it would be some achievement to see off Chelsea, in particular, and take Everton from 12th last season into the top six. Any higher appears unlikely unless the team is further strengthened this month.
Everton will also benefit, as will Aston Villa, from not being in European competition. The problem for Villa is how far behind they are falling in games played. If Chelsea are not in the top four and unless they win the Champions League then Frank Lampard cannot expect to survive as manager. In fact, he may be in danger soon if Chelsea fall further out of contention.
5 TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR
Finishing outside the top four again would be a big blow to Tottenham and Jose Mourinho. The club and manager are geared towards Champions League football and it will hurt them both not to be in it for another season especially when, usually, he wins leagues in his second season.
But in many ways Spurs are a very un-Mourinho-like team. He sets them up as one – with their brilliance on the counter-attack through Harry Kane and Son Heung-min – and emphasis on a sound defensive base but must be infuriated with their inability to close out games, summed up by the recent draw against Fulham.
Such inconsistency may prove costly while it will eat at Mourinho that with a couple of key additions in January he will feel he can address some of the issues.
Not that it looks like Spurs will spend, at present. Gareth Bale has been a disappointment and a distraction but if he could turn things around in the second half of the campaign then things may be very different, while the treatment of Dele Alli is just not helping anyone.
Spurs’ best bet for success is a cup competition. It would represent first silverware since 2008 but will not, really, be enough.
4 LEICESTER CITY
Given they can go top if they beat Chelsea at home tonight then Leicester are definitely in the race. Last season they came in for some harsh criticism with the drop-off in their results as they went from being Liverpool’s nearest rivals to finishing outside the top four, winning just two of their last nine league games.
But that is unfair as a crippling injury list has to be factored in.
Leicester have a strong squad but not one strong enough to cope with the number of key players they were missing. They just ran out of steam.
A more legitimate criticism is whether they and manager Brendan Rodgers can cope when the pressure is on.
One defeat in 10 in all competitions has taken them back up the table but do they have the mental resilience to stay there?
Jamie Vardy has just turned 34 but remains the key, although Harvey Barnes is becoming a growing influence and key players are back.
Leicester appear well set to qualify for the Champions League which would be a remarkable achievement.
More than ever though this season may be about keeping first-choice players fit, especially with clubs who do not have strength in depth.
If Leicester have more luck than in the last campaign, they can do it.
3 MANCHESTER UNITED
No one expected United to be involved in the title race, never mind top, which, actually, is kind of weird given the huge levels of investment in the team in recent seasons. Even so, they deserve credit and it is some feat to go 16 games unbeaten away from home.
The opportunity is undoubtedly there to win the title for the first time since 2012-’13 and clean sheets against City, at home, and Liverpool, away, are impressive even if the games were less so.
It is hard to think of a player coming into the Premier League who has had such an immediate and transformative impact as Bruno Fernandes and even when he is peripheral, like against Liverpool, he almost won the game.
The key, though, feels like sustaining Paul Pogba’s form and his new-found
discipline. When he does not try to do too much he is far more effective. Defensively, United are stronger and they remain devastating on the break even if they still feel like a team of moments rather than something more substantial.
If City and Liverpool leave the door open then United are best-placed to take advantage. The question may be whether they and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can deal with that kind of pressure in the second half of the season?
2 LIVERPOOL
When Liverpool blew away Crystal Palace 7-0 on December 19, it felt like it was the signal for them to push on. Festive fixtures against West Brom, Newcastle and Southampton were favourable. They were five points clear and should have built on their lead. Instead, they won none of those games and drew with United and claimed just three points. Before that it definitely felt like they were the team to beat but the signs of public frustration from Jurgen Klopp – who has appeared tetchy – have been telling. Maybe it betrays the realisation that they made a strategic error in not recruiting another central defender last summer and relying on the injury-prone Joel Matip as back-up to Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez?
Hindsight is a wonderful thing but it felt a gamble and Liverpool are paying the price while the absence of Diogo Jota has also been felt with the famous front three not quite firing, especially Roberto Firmino.
Liverpool must be tempted to sign a central defender this month and – with the right recruit – it could well make the difference.
Otherwise they are taking another gamble. They are having their blip now and remain in contention but it is a risk that may leave them short.
1 MANCHESTER CITY
Remarkably, given how often the leadership has changed this season, City are yet to be on top. They will go above Manchester United if they win their game in hand and certainly it feels like they are the favourites now. It is a very different City, though.
When they ran away with the league in 2017-’18 with a total of 100 points they conceded just 27 goals and with only 13 conceded so far this campaign they may just beat that total. The difference is then they also scored 106 goals and this time they have just 29 – with six teams having scored more.
Their current run is impressive. They have conceded just three goals in 15 unbeaten games in all competitions, which has included 12 wins, and Ruben Dias is proving to be one of the signings of the season, while the assured return of John Stones has been an unexpected boost when he appeared on his way out. He is still just 26.
With Aymeric Laporte and Nathan Ake, City have strength in depth in central defence – in stark contrast to Liverpool – and that may be the clincher.
The concern is scoring goals and also having had to go on such a strong run just to get back into contention. (© Telegraph Media Group Limited 2021)