‘Waters’ can flow and meet changes head on
Anew dawn for the Grand National. Another one. The changes made in 2012 to the fences, making them softer and easier to jump, were a success in that the course became less harsh on horse and jockey, but unintended consequences were that more horses stay in the race, they spread out less and the speed increased because the fences no longer command the respect of man or beast.
So, the latest tweaks are to have fewer horses, down to 34 from 40, and to bring the start closer to the first fence and make it a standing start to slow down the early speed.
Balance
Logical but it makes you wonder why this race is watched by millions and our other races aren’t. Thrill and danger must be part of it, but obviously a balance is needed. Hopefully this might keep the scales steady.
The biggest safety measure this year will be the very soft ground, and personally I think a very watered course every year would be a great idea. Slower speed and softer falls.
From a Closutton point of view, the National has an added importance this year. If we were to win, it would put us on the premises in the British Trainers’ Championship. In April 2016, we went to Sandown on the final day to try wrest it off Paul Nicholls but we came up short.
The ‘Gigginstown split’ happened that summer and the next season we went down to the penultimate day of the Irish season before we clawed back Gordon Elliott’s lead for the Irish title. Eight years later there is a chance to take care of some unfinished business. Willie hasn’t sent any of our nine Cheltenham winners on the boat over, but he has sent a bigger armada than normal so the possibility is there nevertheless.
Winning the Grand National is the key, however. We run seven and a few have major chances. Paul Townend has chosen I Am Maximus, the hero of last year’s Irish Grand National. I wouldn’t have fancied him in a normal year as his jumping is suspect, he is an awkward ride and his best form is right-handed even though he jumps left. Maybe the very soft ground will help him overcome those handicaps.
Maybe. I’d much prefer to be on
Meetingofthewaters. He has the Noble Yeats profile of being a younger and unexposed horse that could still be improving. I don’t see the ground being any issue, but he will have to settle in order to stay the distance.
Mr Incredible has been on his best behaviour at home since his run at Uttoxeter, acting suspiciously normal. The standing start is going to be a concern, as he is a horse which doesn’t need any encouragement to stand still for long periods. Or even short periods.
If he does consent to jump off though, he will love the ground and took really well to the track last year before his saddle slipped at the Canal Turn second time around. He can be competitive. Of the others, Panda Boy stands out. He was second to Meetingofthewaters at Christmas and he is now 11lb better off.
That will obviously close the gap but I think Meetingofthewaters has more room to improve as he has ran less over fences. Nevertheless, Martin Brassil is a genius at peaking one for the big day, and there is no bigger day than this. Limerick Lace has been chosen by Mark Walsh of the JP battalions and she is again young, unexposed and off a light weight.
The last mare to win the Grand National was Nickel Coin in 1951, but it’s a different race nowadays and, in a different way, anything can happen.
PATRICK’S PICKS
1. Meetingofthewaters 2. Panda Boy 3. Limerick Lace 4. Mr Incredible 5. Noble Yeats