Consequences of latest Middle East escalation will be felt around world

DECLAN POWER

The recent drone and missile attack by Iran on Israel is being seen as the next step on what many fear could be a very short route to an all-out regional war in the Middle East.

The Iranian attack is considered retaliation for the successful Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus where seven people, including two senior Iranian Republican Guard officers, were killed.

In purely military terms, the Damascus strike had much more of an effect than Iran’s retribution.

All observers in the international security community will know Iran’s retaliation was largely symbolic, knowing this strike would not cause serious physical damage to Israel due to the sophistication of its US-supported air-defence systems.

Israel relies not just on the short-range Iron Dome missile-defence system, but also the Arrow, the David’s Sling system and the much-vaunted but expensive US-created Patriot missile system.

These systems allow for an air defence in depth and breadth that has been given its greatest test after the Iranians launched an unprecedented air attack comprising diverse weapons systems including cruise missiles, weaponised drones and shorter-range tactical missiles.

These were launched from a series of multinational sites in Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.

For the Iranians, to be able to demonstrate the ability to attack from outside their own borders gives them the appearance of a military capacity they don’t really have.

Despite the attacks coming at Israel from all directions and including short and long-range munitions, there was never a strong likelihood of the Israelis suffering significant loss or damage. This is of note, since Israel’s air-defence capacity was well known to the Iranians.

The Iranians could have perhaps done more physical and morale damage to Israel had they launched a series of attacks through the many terrorist proxy groups they control in the region and beyond. Such attacks could have been unleashed on Israeli embassies, commercial and cultural interests worldwide.

However, the Iranians would still not have seriously degraded Israel’s ability to defend itself and Iran would have increased the opprobrium already directed at it by the international community as a country that backs terrorists in pursuit of its own interests.

But by launching a conventional and largely failed air attack, Iran has created a bigger issue for the Israelis – should they now retaliate, and with what means and to what level?

Iran has cleverly lobbed the ball into Israel’s court. Already, rhetoric in certain extremist Israeli government quarters is calling for Tel Aviv to “go berserk”. It is a sentiment guaranteed to cause weeping and gnashing of teeth in frustration in the offices of the Biden administration back in Washington.

If Israel takes the bait and goes in hard against Iran, it risks a serious escalation of tension throughout the entire Middle East. If a regional war develops, there will be many losers, not just in that area. The Ukrainians and Russians are watching events unfold with bated breath. There are serious consequences for Ukraine if war in the Middle East escalates. Already, the spotlight of condemnation over Russia has dimmed somewhat among the international community.

This next period is going to be an extremely dangerous one for Israel and its people. For too long the Netanyahu government hoodwinked its own people through the politics of fear that the only way to protect Israel from attacks was through security strategies and military methods.

This concept failed miserably on October 7, when Hamas terrorists carried out the worst atrocity on Israel’s territory since its creation.

It seems now that Israel’s enemies, of which Iran is chief, are intent on not defeating Israel on a conventional kinetic battlefield, but by luring it into making catastrophic bellicose decisions that will further isolate it from its allies, and indeed the international community as a whole.

Friends and citizens of Israel should now be asking serious questions as to whether their current government is fit for purpose.

For those of us in Ireland and the EU, there is also the factor that Hezbollah in Lebanon heeded its master’s voice and launched missile attacks into Israel.

This will undoubtedly put it in the crosshairs of Israeli targeting specialists as future retaliatory plans are drawn up. For Irish and other EU troops serving with Unifil in Lebanon, the ugly reality is risk will increase due to Hezbollah actions.

It would be ironic and sad indeed to think Irish soldiers may face fatal consequences once again due to the activities of Hezbollah, the organisation implicated in the killing of Private Seán Rooney in December 2022.

This serves as a pertinent reminder that decisions about retaliation and escalation in the Middle East will have consequences far beyond that benighted territory.

Declan Power is a former soldier and independent security and defence analyst with extensive experience of working in conflict zones across Africa and the Middle East