What Iran, Israel and Ukraine conflicts mean for us all on a global security scale
Few people noticed last week that we were teetering on the brink of total war between Israel and Iran amid a welter of international appeals for calm. Last Friday, Israel struck an air-defence system in Iran in the latest in a series of direct attacks between both countries as each left the proxy attacks on each others’ allies to one side. Despite repeated proxy attacks and a “shadow war” between these Middle East behemoths, it was the first time in 45 years that each attacked the other directly, and marked a dangerous development in their adversarial relationship, with potential ramifications for all of us globally.
Things went up a significant notch and a turning point in the relationship was reached, upending previous custom and practice and all previous rules.
Journalistic colleagues who have covered the Middle East for a long time insist that people in Iran do not want war with Israel.
But they also face many other upheavals in their country. The Tehran government continues a strong campaign on the streets, cracking down on women who are not observing the hijab dress code laws. Public criticism of Iran’s policy on Israel is not tolerated, as political activists and journalists are detained, and media is subject to specific gagging orders.
The Iranian economy has been in poor shape for some time and this latest crisis has caused the national currency, the rial, to plummet on money markets against the dollar. For ordinary Iranians the effects of this squaring off against Israel have been very serious and have had immediate consequences.
After a week of shadow-boxing, it seems for now as if both sides have been sloping things off. There was intense diplomatic pressure and messaging being sent to both Iran and Israel. There were urgings aplenty from the US, from the European Union, from Middle East countries, from European countries, from African countries, and elsewhere. The blunt warnings were that the region just could not stand another massive war.
In Washington, the Biden administration has told Israel repeatedly that its “iron-clad defence” support cannot stretch to a full-blown conflict with Iran.
The US and other allies helped fend off the first Iranian attack on Israel but they’re definitely not interested in a war with Iran. The hope is that Israel will now realise it cannot face Iran alone.
While both sides have now pulled back from the brink, the situation remains volatile and things are far from settled between this pair. The conflict could easily kick off again, triggered by a miscommunication, or error of judgment such as more assassinations.
There was more relief in Washington in the past few days as a long impasse over US aid to Ukraine – among other places – was finally ended, and a total of $61bn (€57bn) was freed up for Kyiv’s war effort, ending months of stalemate in
Congress. It is hoped the US Senate will today rubberstamp the funding package, totalling $95bn (€89bn) – also benefiting Israel and Taiwan.
The Congress blockage was caused by the non-interventionist wing of the Republican Party continually arguing that they would not back the funding of a world police operation. Observers in Washington now suggest that these refuseniks will try to destabilise the House speaker, Mike Johnson, who helped finally pilot the aid package through the political impasse.
A relative easing of tensions in the Middle East and aid approval for Ukraine helped calm money markets while the benchmark of Brent crude oil dropped.
But the experience risks being only a shorttime fix for Ukraine – where the news was greeted with some relief and gratitude. Future aid for the embattled country will undoubtedly be soon required, meaning another mammoth battle in the US House and Senate to get the necessary approval.
President Joe Biden is preparing yet another Ukrainian aid package but there are no guarantees of anything beyond this year for now. The president wants this current tranche disbursed as quickly as possible as Ukraine is running low on armaments and facing new Russian onslaughts.
Officials and experts estimate that new artillery rounds, precision-guided missiles and air defence can soon change the immediate military outlook for Ukraine. Since last October, Ukraine has lost an estimated 583 sq km of territory to Russian forces, and experts say it is largely because of a lack of artillery. Russia has had time to prepare for offensive operations expected in late spring or early summer.
If Donald Trump is returned to the White House next November things risk worsening again.
That would mean more direct pressure on the European Union to step in to the funding breach and it would also give opportunities for those within the EU, such as France, who are urging a greater defence role.
The Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine for a fully fledged invasion in February 2022 was a game-changer for the world.
Since then, two of the EU’s long-standing neutral nations, Finland and Sweden, have as a direct consequence of the war in Ukraine, opted to join the West’s Nato defence alliance, abandoning long-standing non-aligned policies.
Ireland is now in the neutral company of Austria and Malta. There is no particular pressure on this country to change, but we have to think much harder about Irish defence options, vastly increasing defence spending and choosing more voluntary co-operation with friendly neighbours.
‘Despite repeated proxy attacks and a “shadow war” between the Middle East behemoths, it was the first time in 45 years that each attacked the other directly, a dangerous development with potential ramifications for all of us globally’