Immigration is capital’s wildcard issue

Daly and Andrews are well placed to retain MEP seats in Dublin, but anger with Greens puts Cuffe in battle

The Dublin constituency in the European elections could be somewhat predictable if recent history is repeated, but it could also throw up a shock or two as the country grapples with record levels of immigration. The changing landscape of the capital, which includes rising levels of homelessness coupled with the weekly arrival of hundreds of asylum-seekers, provides a fascinating backdrop as the public prepare to vote.

Health and housing are still key issues, but equally contentious in some parts of Dublin are the introduction of huge swathes of bicycle lanes and new bus corridors.

The sitting candidates

There are four seats up for grabs in Dublin, with three sitting candidates running again. Former tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald bowed out of the race after serving a five-year term. Fitzgerald may have had next year’s presidential election in the back of her mind when she decided against another run at the Brussels gig.

However, Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews, Independent Clare Daly and the Green Party’s Ciarán Cuffe have all thrown their hats in the ring for another term.

Fianna Fáil

Andrews has a good chance of re-election, having proved himself to be a competent and diligent MEP with a good handle on the issues facing the union.

Fianna Fáil sources say they are getting very little flak at the doors and are confident Andrews will get re-elected. The party will argue that in a time of international turmoil, safe hands are needed in Europe.

Fine Gael

Former social protection minister Regina Doherty muscled her way onto the Fine Gael ticket to replace Fitzgerald after a hard-fought selection convention that resulted in Josepha Madigan stepping back from politics.

Fine Gael has always held a seat in the capital and there is a lot of pressure on Doherty to retain the record. Despite being from Dublin originally, she has spent most of her political career in Meath. Campaigning has gone well, but Doherty has experienced some toxicity on the doorsteps, with her 17-year-old daughter berated by a voter on one canvass.

Green Party

Ciarán Cuffe booked his ticket to Brussels on the back of record levels of support for the Greens during the last local and European elections five years ago.

Greens generally do well in times of economic prosperity, but the party’s drive to get rid of motorists has infuriated many Dublin communities. Intrusive bicycle lanes and bus corridors have caused lots of angst, mostly in suburban parts of the constituency.

Cuffe is probably the Greens’ best chance of retaining a seat in the European Parliament, but it could be a challenge.

Sinn Féin

Sinn Féin is the only mainstream political party to select two candidates to run for Europe in Dublin. Senator Lynn Boylan and councillor Daithí Doolan are on the ballot paper for the main opposition party.

Boylan is a former MEP, but lost her seat in 2019 when Sinn Féin had a very bad day at the polls. But she is tipped across the political divide to return to Brussels.

Sinn Féin reports good canvasses in Dublin, but it has encountered the occasional anti-immigration voter who feels let down by the party’s stance on asylum-seekers.

Boylan’s partner, Sinn Féin housing spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin, was confronted by one such voter on a recent canvass of his home constituency of Dublin Mid-West. Doolan’s chances of taking a seat will depend on a strong turnout of Sinn Féin voters on polling day.

The Labour Party

Aodhán Ó Ríordáin could well be a dark horse in the race for the final seat. The Labour TD has polled well in recent public surveys and could be transfer-friendly when it comes to other left-leaning candidates.

Labour is still paying the price for its coalition government with Fine Gael over a decade ago, but its most recent success in the capital saw Ivana Bacik take a seat in the 2021 Dublin Bay South by-election.

Ó Ríordáin is a strong media performer and pitches himself as the antithesis to candidates on the right of the political spectrum.

Social Democrats

Newcomer Sinead Gibney could struggle with name recognition in the city, but the Social Democrats made sure to mix up its postering campaign to include Holly Cairns, who has strong personal public support since she took over the party.

People Before Profit

Bríd Smith announced she would not be seeking re-election to the Dáil just a few months before she decided to put her name forward for the European elections. She is not tipped to have much of a chance this time around.

‘Sources say they are getting very little flak at the doors and are confident Andrews will get re-elected’

Aontú

Peadar Tóibín is still riding the wave of success from the recent referen

dum on families and carers. He will hope Aontú candidate Aisling Considine can also capitalise from the constitutional win.

Considine is relatively unknown, but the Aontú brand is growing and voters may see it as a less extreme option for a protest vote against government immigration policies.

Clare Daly

Registered as an Independents 4 Change candidate, Daly is said to be quietly confident of a return to Brussels. Much will depend on transfers but, despite some controversial stances on Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and her involvement with alleged Russian spies, she does have strong support in the city.

Niall Boylan

The radio shock-jock runs under the Independent Ireland brand and is hoping his minor celebrity coupled with right-leaning political views on immigration will help him land a seat. Much will depend on how many votes he can get from a smorgasbord of anti-immigration candidates.

Other Independents

There is a wide range of other candidates, including Islamic scholar Dr Umar Al-Qadri, who is highlighting the benefits of immigrants working in Ireland.

Former union official Brenda Ogle, best known for his campaigning during the anti-water charges protests, is also in the running. Another Independent is Stephen O’Rourke, who is from Ballyfermot but lives in Berlin.

Anti-immigration

There are about half-a-dozen candidates campaigning against the Government’s immigration policies. They include Dublin solicitor Malachy Steenson, along with representatives from the National Party (Rebecca Barrett and Patrick Quinlan), Ireland First (Philip Dwyer), The Irish People (Andy Heasman) and Irish Freedom Party (Diarmaid Ó Conaráin).

Prediction

The opinion polls point towards the three main parties of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin securing seats, with the fourth spot up for grabs.

The public mood on housing, health and immigration will dictate where the final seat goes. If migration is the big issue, it could play into the hands of a candidate who campaigned on the issue, with the most obvious being Niall Boylan or Aontú’s Aisling Considine.

But Dubliners may also want to go with what they know, which points towards Clare Daly or Ciaran Cuffe retuning to Brussels, or even Aodhán Ó Ríordáin.

Forecast: 1. Barry Andrews; 2. Lynn Boylan; 3. Regina Doherty; 4. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin.

‘Labour is still paying the price for its coalition with Fine Gael over a decade ago’