Breeders’ CUP

GEEGEEZ.co with key trends to take note of as you follow the action from Churchill Downs on November 2-3

American experts GEEGEEZ with the trends for Kentucky

The Breeders’ Cup, America’s end of season showpiece, is something of an acquired taste. Despite that, Europe’s finest are racking up the air miles to take their chance. Last year, 34 European horses took to Del Mar in California for the 34th running of the event; and this time, that number may even be eclipsed.

The Cup moves east from the Sunshine State for only the second time since 2011, and returns to the home of the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs.

There have been eight previous instalments of this great event under the Twin Spires, with Europe winning just 13 races, an average of only 1.625 per renewal.

However, Europe has won six of the eight Breeders’ Cup Turfs here, including the last four, and has an extremely strong hand to make it seven from nine. But, as you’ll note below, it may not be with oddson Arc winner, Enable.

British punters may not be familiar with all BC races, notably those run on the dirt, but there are some key trends for each of the 14 Breeders’ Cup contests.

Here are some of my favourites, starting with one of the most striking statistics anywhere in racing:

Mile:

UK- and Irish-trained horses are a combined 0 from 62 since Ridgewood Pearl won in 1995 (15 of the last 22 were US winners; other 7 all French-trained)

Juvenile Fillies’ Turf:

in the eight renewals when raceday medication was permitted, Europe has won zero. They have saddled four favourites and two second favourites in those races.

Distaff:

17 of the 34 Distaffs (50%) have been won by 4yo's (including 10 of the last 16)

Dirt Mile:

10 of the 11 winners were off the track 27-42 days

Turf Sprint:

9 out of 10 winners had a 28+ day layoff (2017 winner was off for 147 days)

Filly & Mare Turf:

All five three-yearold winners were Europeans, including the last two winners

Sprint:

27 of the 34 Sprint winners had five or more seasonal starts; five of the seven exceptions were trained by Bob Baffert

Turf:

11 of the 21 Euro winners last ran in the Arc, but Arc winners are 0 from 6 in the same season (including Golden Horn, odds on in 2015, and Dancing Brave, odds on in 1986)

Classic:

All 34 winners were aged three to five. Six-year-olds-plus are 0/31 including legends of US racing, Cigar and Zenyatta.

The danger men from a US perspective are Chad Brown and Bob Baffert.

Brown has made his name with turf runners, and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t claim at least one of the seven turf heats. He is typically strongest in the fillies’ events (including four wins in the Juvenile Fillies Turf).

Baffert is the man on the dirt, with 14 Cup strikes to his name, including three of the last four Classics. He has also won the Sprint five times, and anything he runs in that race should be given utmost respect.

One last thought: generally speaking, back US horses with British bookies and European horses on the American tote.