melbourne Cup
Brian Blackwell of Australia’s Practical Punting Magazine with his verdict on November 6’s big race
Aussie racing expert gives his take on the runners and riders
CUP BETTING IDEAS
The key races in which the Cup winner or placegetters may emerge are as follows: Lexus Stakes, Turnbull, Bart Cummings, Geelong Cup, Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate. Or you can simply find out for yourself what could be a winning formula. Check out each runner on the day with this following set of key trends: 1. Ran in the first 4 in the Caulfield Cup. 2. Has won over 2400m (1m4f) or longer in the last six months. 3. International visitor who has won or been 2nd or 3rd at Group 1, 2 or 3 level in the last 12 months. 4. Is carrying 58kgs (9st 2lb) or less. 5. Is the horse seven years or under? Anything older than seven faces a black history.
BRIAN’S TOP SIX FOR THE CUP
• MAGIC CIRCLE • MUNTAHAA • CHESTNUT COAT • AVILIUS • LATROBE • STRATUM
LEADING HOPES
AVILIUS 12/1: This import with the James Cummings stable has rocketed into contention on the back of three successive wins at Randwick and Rosehill over 1600m, 1900m and 2000m. He’s disposed of some handy rivals. Can he stay the 2 miles? He’s certainly shown plenty so far not only in Australia but back in France where he had 6 starts on turf for 2 wins and 3 placings. His wins were over 2000m and 1900m at Maissons-Lafitte and Chantilly in April 2017. Avilius looks like a key Caulfield Cup chance. The 2400m will be no concern. Then, the big Cup?
KINGS WILL DREAM 12/1:
Who really knows the scope of this Darren Weir trained 5yO, weighted on 53kgs? The Caulfield Cup is a target for him but so is the 3200m one. He ran 2nd/12 to Grunt in Grp 1 at Flemington 1600m on September 15 after a close (0.2) 3rd to Humidor in Grp 1 at Caulfield 1400m on September 1. He won the Mornington Cup 2400m in March. No doubt he’s a cracker of a racehorse.
CROSS COUNTER 14/1:
Charlie Appleby’s got a good one with this classy 4YO on 51kgs and #22 on the entry list. His UK form is appealing even though it lacks Grp 1 races. He ran 2nd/9 York 2400m Grp 2 on Aug 22 and won at Goodwood in Grp 3 over 2400m on Aug 4. The signs look ominous.
FLAG OF HONOUR 14/1:
He now has 52.5kgs after copping a 1.5kg penalty for his excellent Irish St Leger win in September. The handicapper must have been very impressed. While yet to go beyond 2400m, Flag of Honour looms as a 2miler with fire. The stable? O’Brien.
MAGIC CIRCLE 14/1:
I really like the look of this Ian Williams trained 7YO. He’s around #10 on the order of entry and he’s weighted OK on 56kgs. He won in Grp 3 class at Sandown 3200m on May 24 and going back to August 2017 he won over 3300m at York, so the staying caper’s his game. Considering his lack of Grp 1 and 2 form it does seem the handicapper has been a touch tough on him? Nevertheless, he rates as a good Cup chance.
WITHHOLD 14/1:
A 6YO weighted on 53kgs, and trained by Roger Charlton, he is well fancied to make an impact. He’s yet to tackle the big-guns in Grp 1 and 2 but the scope is there. He won over 3300m at Newcastle on June 30 and was a
3600m winner at Newmarket on Oct 14 last year (in a field of 34!). Lots to like. He was around #49 on the entry order.
CHESTNUT COAT 20/1:
Trained by Yoshiti Yahagi, has had 17 starts for 4 wins, including two Stakes victories this year. He finished 2nd in the Grp 2 Nikkei Sho (2500m) at Nakayama in March and ran 5th in the Group 1 Tenno Sho (3200m) at Kyoto in April. We know that Japanese stayers at the top level are equal to any stayers in the world so this one needs to be kept very safe with 55.5kgs. He’s around #16 on the entry list.
SOLE IMPACT 40/1:
Trained by Hirofumi Toda and is by top stallion Deep Impact. A six-year-old, he’s won 4 races from 37 starts. He finished a creditable 5th in May’s Grp 2 Meguro Kinen (2500m) in Tokyo, a Caulfield Cup ballot exemption race. Adelaide-based Japanese apprentice Ryusei Sakai, 21, has been provisionally booked to ride Sole Impact in the Caulfield Cup.
HAMADA 20/1:
A 5YO on 53.5kgs, he’s with the Charlie Appleby stable and certainly deserves utmost respect on his UK form. He won over 2700m at Newbury on Aug 18 (Grp 3), won at Newmarket 2800m on July 13, won at York 2400m on May 16 and won at Wolverhampton 2400m on Apr 28. These are formlines loaded with Group class potential.
BEST SOLUTION 25/1:
Saeed Bin Suroor and Godolphin have a smart type with this 5YO although he’s rated to his very best on 57.5kgs. He won at Baden Baden in Grp 1 2400m on Sep 18 after a 52 days break following a Grp 2 win over the same trip at Newmarket on July 18. He’s #2 on the order of entry. No form beyond 2400m.
HUMIDOR 25/1:
One of the better local prospects from the stable of Darren Weir. His form is well known and includes his Cox Plate 2nd to Winx. His form this time in has been satisfactory. Weir will have him in trim. The Caulfield Cup perhaps his best option?
MUNTAHAA 25/1:
This 6YO from the John Gosden stable won the Ebor 2800m at York on Aug 25. This race is an AOK line for the Melbourne Cup. Mostly, his form has been in Grp 2 and 3 races. He went to the line stoutly at York - a signal that the extra 400m and the roomy Flemington track may prove ideal. He’s on 55.5kgs and is around the #15 mark on the order of entry.
NIGHT’S WATCH 25/1:
Another one from the Darren Weir stable. He flashed home to win at Caulfield on September 22, pushing him right into the limelight for the Caulfield Cup. A big effort in that race will throw more light on his 2 mile aspirations.
STRATUM 50/1:
This Willie Mullins trained 6YO was my main earlybird selection but he’s way down the list for a run, being unqualified at time of writing. He has only 50kgs. He was very unlucky when 12th/20 in the Ebor 2800m, being blocked at a vital stage in the
straight. If he can win a qualifying race and get a penalty he might sneak into the field. If he does, watch out!
SIR CHARLES ROAD 50/1:
His NZ form merits serious consideration and his bold wide-running 4th at Caulfield on September 22 was an outstanding effort behind Night’s Watch. The 3200m won’t be a problem.
GRUNT 33/1:
Unqualified at September 12 but looking like a star stayer in the making for Mick Price. He loves the Flemington circuit, winning there over 1600m in Grp 1 on September 15. The Caulfield Cup looks a key option but it’s a query after that as to his ability to handle the 3200m. We’ll have to see how this 4YO progresses but the signs are bright.
KEW GARDENS 25/1:
Won over the Epsom 2400m Grp 1 on June 2, scoring by 3.25 lens. More importantly, he won the UK St Leger on September 15 and was handed a 1kg penalty to lift his weight to 54kgs. One of the Aidan O’Brien team.
TORCEDOR 16/1:
A key entry from the Andreas Wohler stable. The 7YO won at Goodwood 3200m on July 31, carrying 61.5kgs and before that was a winner over 4000m at Ascot on May 2/. Both were Grp 1 races. Torcedor’s form is excellent at the best tracks against the best horses. He has to carry 57kgs (-2.5 under wfa).
CLIFFS OF MOHER 20/1:
The 5YO is at #6 in the entry order. He won over 2000m at Sandown in Grp 1 on July 7 after finishing 3rd/5 at Ascot 2400m Grp 2 on June 23. He’s another from the O’Brien stable. Weighted on 56.5kgs.
LATROBE 25/1:
This 4YO looks like a prime prospect. He won in Grp 1 at York 2100m on Aug 22, scoring by more than 10 lens. That followed a 53 days break since a Grp 1 win at The Curragh in Ireland on June 30. These formlines look solid. The key aspect is that he’s owned by Lloyd Williams, owner of last year’s winner Rekindling. I reckon the Macedon Lodge boss will be feeling chuffed about this one right now. He’s in with 52kgs (-3.5 under wfa).
IDAHO 40/1:
Yet another O’Brien entry. He has winning Grp 3 form over 2700m and ran 3rd/7 over the Goodwood 16f in Grp 1 on July 31. The 6YO is #8 on the order of entry. Maybe his form lacks the potency of some of the other internationals.
ROSTROPOVICH 25/1:
Won in Grp 3 at Leopardstown 2400m on September 15. Ran 2nd/12 to Latrobe in Grp 1 at The Curragh on June 30. Another O’Brien challenger with 51kgs.
MARMELO 20/1:
Ran 9th/23 in last year’s Melbourne Cup. Also was 6th/17 in the Caulfield Cup 2400m, both Grp 1 races. On July 14 won in Grp 2 over 2800m at Longchamps. Unplaced in a Cup - hard to win 12 months later.
FLAG OF HONOUR 14/1:
Won at Grp 3 level at The Curragh 2800m on Aug 25, following a similar win there on July 1 in Grp 2. Nothing wrong with those formlines. The 4YO is #25 on the order of entry with only 51kgs. Whose stable? O’Brien.
EMOTIONLESS 50/1:
A member of the Charlie Appleby team for Godolphin. He’s failed twice in Grp 1 company. On July 21 he won at Newbury over 2000m in Listed class. He’s also run placings at Meydan (Dubai) over 1800m to 2400m. He’s on 55kgs and is #26 in order of entry. Query on this one.
MAX DYNAMITE 50/1:
We know all about this 9YO through his 3rd/23 in last year’s Melbourne Cup,
btn 2 lens. He hasn’t done much since then. How many 9YO’s have won a Melbourne Cup? He has 54kgs and is #35 on the entry order.
DESERT SKYLINE 50/1:
This David Elsworth trained 5YO has been beaten in Grp 1 races at Goodwood 3200m and Ascot 4000m this year. He has 54kgs and is #38 on the entry list. Can’t fancy him too much.
RED VERDON 25/1:
An Ed Dunlop trained 6YO with 54kgs listed at #39 on the entry order. He’s run placings in Grp 2 and 3 company at Goodwood, Ascot, Sandown and Newwmarket this year. He’s had some 4 runs in Grp 1 with the best of them 2nd/9 over 2400m back in 2016.
COUNT OCTAVE 20/1:
A 5YO from the Andrew Balding stable, his form this year has been OK in Grp 2 company - finishing 2nd/9 York 3300m on Aug 24 and 5th/8 York 2800m on May 18. He failed in Grp 1 over 2900m at Doncaster in September last year.
FINCHE 50/1:
He’s an Andre Fabre trained 5YO with 54kgs and #42 on the entry ladder. Ran 5th/7 in Grp 1 over the Longchamps 2100m on April 29.
PRINCE OF ARRAN 33/1:
This 5YO gelding from the Charlie Fellowes team has been btn in Grp 1 company. On June 30 he ran 2nd/10 at Newcastle 3300m Class 2 behind Withhold, who is currently at 14/1 for the Cup. Prince of Arran has 53kgs and is #54 on the entry order. Hard to fancy.
PRIZE MONEY 50/1:
A 6YO with 52.5kgs, he’s a Godolphin owned stayer but hasn’t much to recommend him. He had four Grp 1 outings last year and failed to get into the placings. He’s #57 on the entry list.
DOHA DREAM 40/1:
Another of the Andre Faber entries but not much form to suggest he can win a Melbourne Cup. Failed in Grp 1 company over 2400m twice last year. He’s at #64 in the rankings.
THOMAS HOBSON 40/1:
He won the Doncaster Cup in September and got a 1kg penalty to lift his weight to 53kgs. But things look tough for Tommy - he’s a 9YO and the Doncaster Cup hasn’t proven a reliable guide.
NELSON 100/1:
A roughie from the O’Brien entries. The 4YO was 5th/6 in Grp 1 at Longchamps 2400m on July 14. Has won in Grp 3 over 200m at Leopardstown. He has only 50kgs but is a long way down the entry order.