andy new­ton

Andy New­ton’s BetVic­tor Gold Cup bet­ting guide and trends

Racing Ahead - - CONTENTS -

Trends for the BetVic­tor Gold Cup at Chel­tenham

So, that’s pretty much it for an­other turf Flat sea­son. This month we get go­ing prop­erly with the jumpers with the three-day Chel­tenham Open Meet­ing (No­vem­ber 16-18) many peo­ple’s idea of the cur­tain-raiser for the hedge-hop­pers.

As al­ways, we have three days of top Na­tional Hunt ac­tion at Prest­bury Park to look for­ward to with the BetVic­tor Gold Cup the meet­ings flag­ship con­test – this year that race will be run on Sat­ur­day No­vem­ber 17.

In gen­eral, over the three days, it’s been a fix­ture that top Na­tional Hunt sta­bles like the Pipes, Nigel Twis­tonDavies, Paul Nicholls and Jonjo O’Neill have done very well at, and since 1996 those four pow­er­ful sta­bles have landed the BetVic­tor Gold Cup a stag­ger­ing 16 times be­tween them!

This key ‘sta­bles stat’ was yet again bol­stered 12 months ago when the Nigel Twis­ton-Davies camp fired in their fourth win in the race, and their third suc­cess since 2008, when Splash Of Ginge re­warded back­ers at a tasty 25/1. So, what are the other main trends to have on your side? To start with, hav­ing pre­vi­ous ex­pe­ri­ence, plus win­ning form at Chel­tenham, is a big plus. All of the last 16 win­ners had tasted the tricky Prest­bury Park fences in the past, while 12 of those 16 (75%) had won in the past over the big­ger ob­sta­cles at the track.

Next up is to note horses that have won pre­vi­ously over at least 2m4f (fences) and, also hail from a UKbased yard – 15 of the last 16 win­ners get a ‘thumbs-up’ on both these stats. It also might pay to note that we’ve had only one Ir­ish-trained win­ner of the race in the last 27 re­newals (Tran­quil Sea, 2009) so even though the Ir­ish don’t tend to send too many over for the race it’s still worth know­ing.

The age of past win­ners over the last two decades has a few stand­out stats too. Yes, the last two win­ners have been aged 9 years-old so we cer­tainly can’t rule out these, but in gen­er­ally it’s ac­tu­ally been a crack­ing con­test for 6 or 7 year-olds with 11 of the last 16 win­ners fit­ting that age bracket. Plus, with 50% of the last 16 win­ners aged 7 this is clearly the main age to fo­cus on.

Stick­ing with the age for just a bit longer, as it’s also worth look­ing at the other end of the age spec­trum as you might want to put a line through and older horses in the race - the last dou­ble-fig­ure aged win­ner was in 1975!

Com­ing into the race in de­cent form is cer­tainly an­other thing to look for as 10 of the last 16 win­ners won this off the back of a top four fin­ish in their most re­cent race, while horses that are mak­ing their sea­sonal reap­pear­ances go okay too - 8 of the last 16 win­ners took this af­ter a lay-off.

The slightly lesser ex­posed run­ners have done best in re­cent years. 69% of the last 16 win­ners had only won 2 or 3 times pre­vi­ously over fences sug­gest­ing that the younger un­ex­posed chasers are the ones to have on your side.

Be­ing a hand­i­cap then the weight­car­ried is an­other trend that has played a big part. Ten of the last 16 win­ners car­ried 10st-13lbs or less, but – a small note of cau­tion - there are signs this weight stat is turn­ing the other way as 4 of the last 6 win­ners have ac­tu­ally won with 10st-13lbs or more.

The last thing to note is the bet­ting. The weight of money for cer­tain horses can of­ten be a good guide as, de­spite the com­pet­i­tive na­ture of this con­test, we’ve had three of the last 16 favourites win which at a 19% strik­er­ate isn’t too shabby for a race that nor­mally has 15-20 run­ners in. The mar­ket lead­ers have also been placed in 7 of the last 16 (44%) run­nings, while it’s worth not­ing that a mas­sive 12 of the last 16 win­ners (75%) re­turned 12/1 or shorter in the bet­ting – all these stats in­di­cate it’s a race the pun­ters tend to get right more of­ten than not.

So, tak­ing all these trends into ac­count, then once we know the fi­nal run­ners, then this should be easy – right? Okay, it doesn’t al­ways pan out as the stats sug­gest, but I’d still rather be look­ing for horses that tick the win­ning formulas that past win­ners have shown. There­fore, tak­ing those fac­tors

on board you could do a lot worse than con­cen­trate on any­thing the Pipe, Nicholls, O’Neill and Twis­ton-Davies sta­bles have en­tered. While if any of their run­ners are also aged 6 or 7 years-old, plus also have past track ex­pe­ri­ence and are 12/1 or less in the bet­ting then these run­ners are cer­tainly worth tak­ing a se­cond glance at.

RE­CENT BETVIC­TOR GOLD CUP WIN­NERS

2017 – Spalsh Of Ginge (25/1) 2016 - Taquin Du Seuill (8/1) 2015 – An­na­cotty (12/1) 2014 – Caid Du Ber­lais (10/1) 2013 – Johns Spirit (7/1) 2012 – Al Ferof (8/1) 2011 – Great En­deav­our (8/1) 2010 – Lit­tle Josh (20/1) 2009 – Tran­quil Sea (11/2 fav) 2008 – Im­pe­rial Com­man­der (13/2) 2007 – L’An­tar­tique (13/2) 2006 – Ex­otic Dancer (16/1) 2005 – Our Vic (9/2 fav) 2004 – Ce­les­tial Gold (12/1) 2003 – Fond­mort (3/1 fav) 2002 – Cy­for Malta (16/1)

BETVIC­TOR GOLD CUP BET­TING TRENDS

116/16 – Had run at Chel­tenham be­fore 15/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences be­fore 15/16 – Won by a UK-based trainer 12/16 – Re­turned 12/1 or shorter in the bet­ting 12/16 – Had won at Chel­tenham be­fore 11/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old 11/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences be­fore 11/16 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twis­ton-Davies (3) 10/16 – Car­ried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 6 car­ried 10-13 or more) 10/16 – Fin­ished in the top 4 last time out 8/16 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the bet­ting 8/16 – Aged 7 years-old 8/16 – Won this on their sea­sonal reap­pear­ance 7/16 – Placed favourites 5/16 – Won their last race 4/16 – Trained by the Pipe sta­ble 4/16 – Ran at Chel­tenham last time out 3/16 – Win­ning favourites 3/16 – Trained by Nigel Twis­ton-Davies 3/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill 3/16 – Ran at Carlisle last time out 2/16 – Rid­den by Sam Twis­ton-Davies 1/16 – Ir­ish-trained win­ners The last win­ner aged in dou­ble-fig­ures was in 1975 Paul Nicholls has sad­dled 9 placed horses (two win­ners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Ber­lais) from his last 34 run­ners The av­er­age win­ning SP in the last 16 years is 10.5/1

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