find out which races train­ers tar­get best

More in­valu­able re­search from Ed­die Wood and his team

Racing Ahead - - EDDIE WOOD -

Un­der­stand­ing the modus operandi of train­ers can be a dif­fi­cult task. A good start­ing point is to ex­am­ine their good per­form­ing race cat­e­gories at any course and then iden­ti­fy­ing their neg­a­tive statis­tics, par­tic­u­larly those who send ten or more run­ners to a track and lose with them all.

Jess and I will be se­ri­ously re­search­ing this sub­ject be­fore we pro­duce the Win­ning At se­ries in March next year. The se­ries will pro­vide a com­pre­hen­sive study of the races at each course us­ing old and new sta­tis­ti­cal anal­y­sis.

We now wish to give you statis­tics from a five-sea­son re­search pe­riod end­ing in De­cem­ber 2017. We have cho­sen sev­eral Flat cour­ses and we will give sig­nif­i­cant pos­i­tive and neg­a­tive data for cer­tain train­ers at each track.

Our first trainer, Char­lie Ap­pleby, sent 29 horses to As­cot in 2yo non-hand­i­caps and won with eight of them for a strike-rate of 27.6%. Ap­pleby clearly tar­gets this race cat­e­gory at this course as his over­all strike-rate is just 13.6%. Ai­den O’Brien achieved a com­pa­ra­ble strike-rate with his 2yo non-hand­i­cap­pers of 25% af­ter send­ing 32 horses to the course and win­ning with eight of them. This is 8.7% above his over­all strike-rate at the course and is clearly an­other good ex­am­ple of a trainer specif­i­cally tar­get­ing race cat­e­gories at cer­tain race­courses.

How­ever, some train­ers failed to achieve a win in the 2yo non-hand­i­cap cat­e­gory at As­cot. They in­clude Richard Fa­hey who lost with all of his 25 run­ners and Ralph Beck­ett who did not win with any of the 20 horses he sent to con­test in this dis­ci­pline. These two train­ers are ex­cel­lent at what they do but in this case I would sug­gest that two fac­tors are at play: one, most of their horses were learn­ing their trade in these out­ings and, two, the trainer was as­sess­ing their abil­ity and find­ing their true Class level.

Our next point of call is Ch­ester. Form does not tra­di­tion­ally work out well at this course and a low draw is of­ten es­sen­tial for a win, par­tic­u­larly in 5f and 6f races. But our ex­am­ples are given in 2yo hand­i­caps.

Our first trainer is Tom Das­combe who had an over­all strike-rate of 13%. How­ever, he sent out 23 run­ners in nurs­eries and won with six of them for a strike-rate of 26.1%. This is over dou­ble his over­all strike-rate at the course and is cer­tainly a tar­geted race cat­e­gory. As many of you will know, Das­combe trains at Mal­pas in Cheshire which is not far from Ch­ester race­course. The jour­ney is an ed­u­ca­tional trip for these young horses and may in­crease their per­for­mance level in their up­com­ing race­course ap­pear­ances.

Our next pos­i­tive ex­am­ple is sup­plied by the An­drew Bald­ing sta­ble. His horses trav­elled many miles from their base in Kingsclere, Berk­shire dur­ing our re­search pe­riod. The horses of­ten act as tu­tors in the Ap­pren­tice race cat­e­gory. Many in­ex­pe­ri­enced rid­ers re­ceive valu­able lessons on dif­fer­ent course con­fig­u­ra­tions and more con­fi­dence from the vi­tal knowl­edge they re­ceive. Bald­ing sent nine horses here and won with six of them for a 66.7% strike-rate. Clearly this is a tar­geted race cat­e­gory par ex­cel­lence.

Neg­a­tives are a mis­nomer in some cases be­cause train­ers may race some of their horses over the wrong dis­tance, on un­suit­able ground con­di­tions and some­times on course con­fig­u­ra­tions which do not suit the con­for­ma­tion of the horses they are send­ing there. These horses are usu­ally hand­i­cap­pers and the trainer is try­ing to get them down to a hand­i­cap mark they can win off. So there are likely ben­e­fits for some horses in fu­ture races. All cour­ses will have ‘true’ neg­a­tive statis­tics and it is in­evitable that some horses have in­suf­fi­cient abil­ity to win a race of any de­scrip­tion.

This brings us to neg­a­tive trainer statis­tics for Ch­ester and we are back with our equine friends con­test­ing in nurs­ery hand­i­caps. David Evans, who trains in Pandy in Mon­mouthshire, sent 17 horses to the course in this cat­e­gory and lost with them all. Char­lie Hills lost with all 11 of his 4yo+ hand­i­cap­pers here, as did Brian El­li­son dur­ing our re­search pe­riod.

The im­por­tant thing with trainer tar­get meth­ods is to se­ri­ously look at their over­all strike-rate which must equal or ex­ceed our 20% bench­mark. Only select cat­e­gories which are at least 15% above the train­ers over­all strike-rate at the given course. Us­ing this higher strike-rate level is likely to in­crease your prof­itabil­ity level.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Ireland

© PressReader. All rights reserved.