GEE GEES

GEEGEES.co offer some wise advice in the search for a winning system

System finds winners hidden in plain sight

Systematic betting has fascinated horse players ever since the races began. The idea that we can apply a rigid set of rules, based on historical performance, to a future event has a number of advantages.

First, it allows us the chance of, as in the title of Nick Mordin’s excellent book, Winning Without Thinking: we simply apply the golden formula and hey presto.

Second, if we have a decent system, the research period can help us to identify what sort of betting bank we need, based on strike rate, longest losing runs, and so on.

And third, such an approach helps us with discipline and staking. In other words, it keeps us on the straight and narrow.

On the downside – there’s always a downside, sadly – systems are inflexible and require us to bet when we really don’t fancy a qualifier; the very characteristics that are beneficial can ultimately become a straightjacket for the more agile punter.

Nevertheless, a good system is predicated on clear logic. Every line in the system’s rules should be explainable, and the simpler the angle, the more likely an approach is to stand the test of time.

One final point about systems is that they are transient: over time, even the best – and most closely guarded – angle gets eroded by market awareness. Nothing lasts forever.

The general premise for a system is a material factor in racing that is generally overlooked by the betting public. Some excellent ways in can be based on spotting a new trainer on the rise (check out Tristan Davidson, for instance) or an apprentice jockey, or maybe something counter-intuitive.

An example of a counter-intuitive system, and the reason for the title of this article, is this one, based on last time out winners. By definition, last time out winners are over-bet. Everyone knows they won last time out, because of the ‘1’ in the form column.

Indeed, since the 19th August 2013 – a date which is not quite arbitrary as I’ll explain – last day winners have struck next time at a rate of 18.73% for a loss at SP of 11,680 points. Ouch. Even at Betfair SP, the losses still amount to 8.6% of stakes (or 5,594 points). Double ouch.

But, on that fateful August afternoon five years ago, I was struck by a couple of horses which had won that week. The first was called Pull The Plug, and he’d been a good bit bigger than his 7.8 Betfair SP earlier in the

day. He was running in a nursery having won his only previous start, when sent off a massive 66/1. The second, Harangue, had won five days previously as a 33/1 shot.

I wondered if these last day winners were considered ‘flukes’ and consequently sent off bigger than they should be; and I was right.

Focusing on last time winners sent off at 25/1 or bigger, which were 8/1 or shorter this time while running in the same grade or one above, those massive negative numbers turned positive. And, since the day I discovered that angle, the results have been similarly positive, as follows: These winners are ‘hidden in plain sight’ –they won their most recent start and yet are consistently sent off at bigger prices than they should be.

A 5% ROI at starting price could be about doubled using best odds guaranteed bookies, and a 20% win rate manages losing runs.

Do keep an eye out for angles when you’re watching racing or looking at the form; you’ll be surprised at how much profit potential is lurking all around.