paul jacobs

Paul Jacobs with some early thoughts about the Cheltenham Festival

Naps king with more ante-post advice for Cheltenham

As we move into the New Year all heads naturally turn towards the Cheltenham Festival and it is worth looking back at the two big chasing trials at the Kempton Christmas Festival with a view to the four biggest days in the National Hunt season.

The Sunbury-on-Thames meet will always be pivotal for the second week in March and normally an impressive winner of the King George VI Chase would propel a horse into favourite for the Gold Cup despite the obvious differentials in the two traces, namely the tracks, probable going description and of course the emphasis on stamina.

The Paul Nicholls’ trained hero Clan des Obeaux is still available at double figure odds despite arguably being the least exposed horse in the entry.

Let’s figure this one out. Favourite Presenting Percy has yet to run as I pen this piece and indeed could start his belated campaign over hurdles. Native River ran a solid race at Kempton Park, but he surely needs significant give in the ground to grind out another victory.

There have to be class and staying doubts about Kemboy for Cheltenham especially as he won a half mile sprint in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown so has plenty to prove in my book.

Road to Respect has looked flat this season, Footpad will run over shorter earlier on in the week, Thistlecrack is a bare three miler and better horses than him over that trip have failed to get the extra two and a half furlongs at the fes- tival. Al Boum Photo won a Mickey Mouse race in January which told us nothing and his fencing was far from fluent, while Might Bite, might never live up to his last two seasons with seemingly too many mental and physical problems to overcome.

Which brings me back to CDO. I’m not sure I agree with Nicholls predications for this young chaser especially as he has already intimated that his young ace is better going right-handed. I also think he is no out and out stayer so well does he travel on the bridle.

So despite being well beaten by Presenting Percy in last year’s RSA Chase I still think that there is a bit more room in my ante-post basket to play with MONALEE.

A three mile RSA is very different to a slog over two and a half furlongs further in the Gold Cup and that is exactly what this son of Milan has been crying out for.

I fancy he would have waltzed home in the Champions Novice Chase at Punchestown last year had he not come to grief three out and I think he is made for this much sterner stamina test. A top price of 33/1 looks well worth taking at this stage in a race where there are so many question marks about his rivals.

The Kauto Star Novices Chase saw a gutsy and classy success from the mare Le Bague Au Roi and her mare’s allowance in the RSA alone makes her a big player on the Wednesday afternoon.

Topofthegame needs to ridden with a deal more balls and remains open to further progress, but Santini was the biggest eye catcher and the bookmakers certainly didn’t miss this strong staying on effort after being outpaced turning for home.

I think that a galloping, but relatively flat track would suit him a whole lot better than Cheltenham and his top price of 3/1 has absolutely no mileage in it.

I would love to see OK Corral run here but it seems that the National Hunt Chase has been earmarked for this very strong stayer, so where does the value lie now?

Despite his blow-out behind Santini at Newbury, I have not lost faith in KILBRICKEN STORM. He simply wasn’t suited by the crawl in that John Francome Novices Chase and as a result his fencing fell to pieces. But whereas the Berkshire course is perfect for Santini, Cheltenham is a home game for this son of Oscar.

Most famously a gutsy winner of the Albert Bartlett 11 months ago, I’m not sure he was subsequently given the best ride at Punchestown.

It is worth remembering that he is 2-2 at Cheltenham and there is always a huge argument to suggest that Cheltenham is a horses for courses track.

Granted some decent give in the ground, he still has the potential to make up into a Championship contender and although he still hasn’t been confirmed for the race, with nonrunner, no bet available what have we got to lose by taking the 20/1 and may be also a small slice of a three figure price on the exchanges as well.