Irish Racing
Brendan Mackie pinpoints the Irish horses he will be backing at the Festival – where he thinks the visitors will be well on top
Mullins and Elliott look stronger than ever this year
Many pundits and bookmakers have already decided that this year’s Festival is going to be even stronger for Ireland than in recent years. You have to go back to Robert Thornton in 2007 for the last Britishbased jockey to top the Festival standings while trainers Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have enjoyed great success in recent years.
Ireland took home a record 19 wins from 28 races in 2017 before settling for a ‘meagre’ 17 last season.
The equine flu shutdown – and added complication of horses needing boosters that interrupt their preparation – has only added to the confidence of those flying the tricolour. The Prestbury Cup has Ireland chalked up at 8-13 with Great Britain 7-4 and drifting. I am not generally a fan of backing odds-on shots but it would be a major upset if the home team manage to turn the form around given what’s happened in the run-up to the meeting.
It remains to be seen how important the shutdown will be but there’s a fairly stark stat for trainers giving their Cheltenham hopes a run within four weeks of the Festival.
In the past four years 22 Festival winners have come to the track within 28 days of their last outing. So an average of just over five per year spread across the four days.
TUESDAY SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
Irish support is crystallising around FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES with him being backed into 5-1 favourite while British racing was on shutdown. The Joseph O’Brien four-year-old has plenty going for him and was impressive when landing the Triumph Hurdle trial at Cheltenham by no fewer than 13 lengths in late January.
He headed the Triumph Hurdle market after that but the emergence of Sir Erec from the same connections surely means he won’t head there unless there’s a mishap with his stablemate. At this stage, he has more improvement to come although it’s worth pointing out that he’s shown his best form with cut in the ground.
Should the going not have any give, Willie Mullins has a big contender in Klassical Dream. He’s had just two runs since moving over from France and they were both impressive. He battled well to win a Leopardstown Grade 1 in early February and that bodes well for coming up the hill. He beat stablemate Aramon a head in that race and he’s also got Grade 1 winning form over timber. He would have to improve to reverse the form. Best Irish prospect: Fakir D’Oudairies followed by Klassical Dream.
ARKLE TROPHY
It could be some start to the meeting for Joseph O’Brien as he has another massive chance with LE RICHEBOURG. He’s improved with every start this year and has looked all the better for dropping down to this sort of trip for his past two runs. He was a Grade 1 winner on Boxing Day at Leopardstown and followed up with a bloodless win there in early February that marked him out as an Arkle type. He’s pretty short in the market now at around 7-2 — another to move during
the shutdown — but given most of his opposition is from the UK, he could have an extra edge.
Cilaos Emery was fifth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2017 and missed a whole year before making his chasing debut with a smooth Grade 1 win at Gowran in December. That was impressive and improvement looks certain. Whether he can win this at such an early stage of his career is open to doubt but he’s got massive talent.
Paloma Blue is not the worst eachway bet at around 16-1. He was fourth in last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and has had just two runs over fences. He made the odd understandable error when winning at Leopardstown last time but will learn from that.
Best Irish prospect: Le Richebourg followed by Paloma Blue
CHAMPION HURDLE
APPLE’S JADE is hardly a surprise choice but it’s clear that she has the pace for the 2m4f trip and the class to get the better of Buveur D’Air. For good measure, she receives a 7lb mares’ allowance which will make her hard to beat. There are concerns over her disappointing effort at the meeting last season when she was turned over in the Mares’ Hurdle at 1-2. Those worries are allayed when you look at what she has done since, with her win at Fairyhouse in December and against Supasundae last time the best performances she has produced on the racetrack.
She goes on any ground and looks capable of improving again with relatively few miles on the clock.
Laurina is the next strongest Irish hope and she looks to have the best part of two stone to find with the Gordon Elliott runner. Looking for an each-way bet at more rewarding odds, soft ground would bring Supasundae into the frame for this if he doesn’t go to the Stayers’. Best Irish prospect: Apple’s Jade
NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP
Given that Delta Work looks set for the RSA Chase over a shorter trip, Ballyward has been backed to win this prize for Willie Mullins. He was fourth in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle here last year and has done well on his two runs over fences so far. He was beaten on the nod at Punchestown before heading to Naas to win a Grade 3, aided by his main challenger falling at the final fence.
That challenger was Discorama and there’s every chance that he may have got the better of Ballyward had he stood up. That’s a big if of course and his jumping will be tested to the limit at Cheltenham. He was second in the David Pipe as a hurdler and offers of 16-1 are fair for a horse with lots of talent despite the question marks.
Both of these have the race as their main target and look the main players at this stage. Best Irish prospect: Ballyward followed by Discorama
WEDNESDAY BALLYMORE NOVICES’ HURDLE
HONEYSUCKLE would be an interesting runner on the back of her sharp improvement when winning at Fairyhouse last time out. She showed a high cruising speed in landing that Grade 3 success, which will be a major asset in a race that’s sure to be run at a real lick.
This is a step up in class but, with just three runs under her belt, there should be a lot more to come.
Henry De Bromhead’s mare saw out 2m4f well when scoring on debut and wasn’t stopping in that good company last time.
Battloverdoyen has been popular and with good reason after he won a Naas Grade 1 last time out. He stayed 2m4f well there and has a very progressive profile. He’s another with plenty more to offer on the back of three starts and, while he’s short in the betting, is worthy of his place near the head of the market. Best Irish prospect: Honeysuckle followed by Battleoverdoyen
RSA CHASE
There are so many well backed Irish horses that it’s not easy to find one at a price for most of the races. The same rule applies here with DELTA WORK rated among the bankers of the meeting for many punters.
Given that his main UK rival Santini missed his intended prep run because of vaccination his stock has only rise.
Delta Work has won each of his chase outings with the last two, in Grade 1 company the most impressive. He stepped up to 3m last time at Christmas and won well despite being in the firing line for a long time. He will need those battling qualities at the meeting where he has strong claims.
Elliott also has the capable Hardline in the line-up and he has a place shout despite being beaten by La Bague Au Roi in the Flogas Chase. He may find it hard to turn that form around but could easily run into the places.
In a race where the Irish challenge isn’t the deepest, another Elliott runner Champagne Classic is worth a look. He won the 2017 Martin Pipe Hurdle and was a solid third to Ballyward on his chasing debut at Naas with more improvement to come.
Best Irish prospect: Delta Work followed by Hardline
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Can Altior be stopped? Provided his preparation has been unaffected by the flu shutdown, it’s hard to make a case for anything else coming home first. That’s why he’s a general 1-2 shot and it’s hard to crab that price.
FOOTPAD would be good enough to win many a Champion Chase and it was only a lack of fitness that led to Simply Ned getting the better of him at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. That was a big improvement on his comeback when he fell at Naas at a time when the Mullins horses were nowhere near their best. Given how well he won the Arkle last year, he could leave those runs behind and give Altior a race — if he shows a similar level of form which is not guaranteed.
Min has to be in the mix too given his pair of seconds at the Festival, in the Arkle 12 months ago and in the 2016 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The Ryanair might make more sense given as he’s been put in his place by Footpad and Altior already at Cheltenham. You can make a stronger case for him winning that contest. Best Irish prospect: Footpad (each-way)
THURSDAY JLT NOVICES’ CHASE
A strong Irish contender is yet to emerge for this, with most of the form horses hailing from the home team.
The likes of Le Richebourg and Delta Work hold entries but look to have other priorities and should only be backed non-runner, no bet. There’s no
reason why either of them would run here over other races.
Should the ground come up soft you can make a case for WINTER ESCAPE who may have found the going too quick when chasing home La Bague Au Roi in the Flogas at Leopardstown in early February. It’s hard to see him turning that form around but a place at 20-1 is certainly on the cards. The rain seems a must though but he’d be of interest should the heavens open. Willie Mullins has Camelia De Cotte in the Arkle but this trip looks more suitable given the way she hammered here rivals in a Thurles Grade 2 last time. This is much hotter company but 25-1 looks a fair price.
Best Irish prospect: Winter Escape (on soft) followed by Camelia De Cotte (each-way)
RYANAIR CHASE
Footpad could run here, although Willie Mullins is more likely to have Min as his main representative. The eightyear-old has Grade 1-winning form over 2m4f from Punchestown before Christmas. He was installed as favourite for this after that gutsy win and, although he’s probably better over the minimum, he could still be good enough to take a Ryanair.
But you can’t rule out MONALEE who looks made for this race. He was an excellent second in the RSA Chase here last season where the 3m trip may have just stretched him a little. He was then going like the winner at Punchestown before coming down at the third-last. He was given a quiet comeback at Down Royal before getting back to his best with a good second to Kemboy in the old Lexus.
There is talk of a Gold Cup run but this distance looks ideal and he could run a big race, with 9-1 looking an excellent price. Best Irish prospect: Monalee followed by Min
STAYERS’ HURDLE
Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have a football team entered each which muddies the waters a little. The presence of Penhill is interesting, although he has been hard to get on to a racecourse since winning this race in 2018. He also won the Albert Bartlett in 2017 so warrants massive respect despite his training problems. At the time of writing he was last seen finishing second in the Punchestown Stayers’ Hurdle in April 2018. If he turns up on the day he must be respected but it’s better to wait.
Samcro is near the head of the betting but I would prefer the chances of Supasundae who could come here instead of the Champion Hurdle. It could be that this longer distance would give him a chance to find the form of last season.
Looking for a bet at this stage, you could do a lot worse than BACARDYS who also comes from the Mullins empire.
Granted, he fell at the last in this race last year when still going well which could explain the offers of around 25-1. He hasn’t cut the mustard as a chaser and the champion trainer has been making noises about him going back over timber. He wouldn’t be the first to revert to the smaller obstacles with success. Best Irish prospect: Bacardys (each-way) followed by Penhill
FRIDAY TRIUMPH HURDLE
It’s hardly a revelation to say that SIR EREC will take a massive amount of beating in this usually competitive contest.
Prices of around 6-4 are nothing to set the heart aflutter and it’s probably best to wait until raceday to have a wager. It’s not hard to see why the son of Camelot is all the rage given how smoothly he won at Leopardstown in early February. That’s by far the best form we’ve seen so far and there’s clearly nothing in Ireland to touch him.
Best Irish prospect: Sir Erec
ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Gordon Elliott has several hurdlers with multiple entries and his Battleoverdoyen appears here too, although the Ballymore looks a better option. The one the Gigginstown team seem to have in mind for this is COMMANDER OF FLEET who got the better of Rhinestone (also entered) in a Leopardstown Grade 1 in early February.
That was a decent battle between them with the slight step up in distance likely to suit both horses. Commander Of Fleet is around 8-1 while there is some 14s around for Rhinestone. That bigger price reflects the fact that trainer Joseph O’Brien also has the Martin Pipe as an option that may be more suitable. But if both turn up on the day, there won’t be a lot between them again.
At bigger odds, Sams Profile could improve enough to take a hand in this, although he’s another with options. He ran well to finish second in a Grade 1 over 2m4f at Naas last time and should be helped by this longer distance with trainer Mouse Morris more than
capable of getting one ready for Cheltenham. Best Irish prospect: Commander Of Fleet followed by Sams Profile
CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
A large spanner has been thrown in the British works for the Gold Cup thanks to defending champion Native River having to come straight to Cheltenham without his final prep run. Given connections wanted to give him another outing, that can only be seen as a negative.
Presenting Percy is a strong favourite at the time of writing and proved his wellbeing with his first outing since winning the RSA 12 months ago. The fact that it was over hurdles doesn’t seem to bother anyone and he was scheduled to run in the Red Mills at Gowran just as we went to press.
Assuming he comes through that unscathed, he will head to Cheltenham as the biggest Irish chance.
He’s not the only one though with Kemboy and Bellshill both worthy of note. Ruby Walsh was quick to point out that the latter still had a bit to find with Presenting Percy despite winning the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown in early February.
He got better as the race went on that day and should appreciate the stiffer test of stamina at Cheltenham.
For that reason, you have to give him every chance of making the frame at 14-1. Kemboy is another really likeable horse who won the Savills Chase last time, which has been a decent pointer to Cheltenham success.
He is another who looks well suited by the extra distance and stamina test Prestbury Park provides and, having just turned seven, should be open to lots of improvement.
All ground seems to suit and it would be no surprise to see him running into a place on Festival Friday.
Best Irish prospect: Bellshill and Kemboy (both each-way)