paul jacobs
Paul Jacobs gives his ante-post fancies for Cheltenham
Naps king with his ante-post bets – he’s got Paisley Park at 42/1
Every year each and every punter goes into the Cheltenham Festival with massive hopes of making the best four days of racing pay and all but a small minority will end up licking their monetary wounds.
As always I will be massively transparent with you as far as my ante-post betting profile is concerned and tell you what I am also looking forward to invest in during the four days.
I was hugely heartened to read Paul Nicholls’ comments in the Racing Post about his Ultima Handicap Chase charge Give Me A Copper being very well treated in the three mile event on day one as I backed him straight after he ran a superb comeback race at Sandown Park at 14/1. The likelihood is that we have a graded animal up against seasoned campaigners here and granted the run of the race I will be hugely disappointed if he doesn’t finish in the four at the very least.
As I always do when I beat the book with an ante-post bet I have laid off to ensure a profit.
My other major interest, safely tucked away deep inside my computer, is a big each-way play on Paisley Park at 42/1 for the World Hurdle.
The faster the pace the better for Emma Lavelle’s charge and with a profit already banked, a Thursday afternoon scream of manic delight will be heard throughout the Cotswolds should this massively progressive stayer take this hurdling title and thus guarantee a brilliant financial start for me to 2019.
So what else have I got on my betting radar for the four days? Well, I will be asking for odds on the exchanges on Altior in play of around 1.80 in the Champion Chase. Why I hear you bellow from your keyboards?
What has yet to be mentioned is that Henderson’s champion has twice looked in trouble at the Festival and there was a brief, a very brief, time when he looked as though he were fallible last year before engaging overdrive.
Let’s get things straight, I don’t think he will lose, but I am of the firm opinion that Cheltenham is simply not his track and until his motor hits sixth gear on the climb to the line I think he will once again hit a flat spot, enabling me to grab some value, coming down the hill before he ultimately puts the race to bed after the last.
I am hoping that Hardline runs in the Arkle Trophy as I think a fast run two miles is exactly what he needs (also entered in the NH Chase) a remark that also applies to Defi De Seuil, although the last named seems destined for the JLT.
At 25/1 and 9/1 respectively I would be quite happy to have both of them onside against Le Richebourg especially if there is some give in the ground as there almost certainly will be on day one.
The Champion Hurdle is a race to
watch and enjoy for me, but with Apple’s Jade set to make it a real test I fancy that will play into the hands of the champ. I have read some stupid comments in the press by certain pundits who have suggested that a repeat of his performance in the race last year will see Buveur D’Air beaten, but Henderson has on more than one occasion stated that his hurdling ace simply was not right going into his 2018 title defence.
Earlier in the day, I am also a huge fan of Champagne Platinum in the Supreme Novices Hurdle and anything around the 16/1 mark now looks outstanding value for this classy individual.
Yes, he needs to take another big step forward to land the opening event, but he travelled and quickened up like a class act when winning at Newbury last time out and, as all Supreme champs must do, he also stays extremely well.
I have earmarked a major each-way play in the Mares Hurdle on Roksana who will relish the step up in trip, while, Altior apart, I will only be having one big play on Wednesday, my weakest day, and that will be on the novice Dortmund Park if he turns out for the Coral Hurdle, a race which I think will suit him down to the ground.
A busy first day will be completed by an each-way play at around 25/1 on Azzerti were he to take in the option of the Close Brothers Handicap Chase. He was travelling like much the best horse in the race before coming down at the third last in the race won by Kildisart at the track in January and is of huge interest if he turns out here, in fact in which ever race he takes in during the four days.
Apart from my Paisley Park investment, Thursday will also be relatively quiet although Callett Mad would interest me if lining up in the Kim Muir.
So finally onto Friday where I am hoping that there will be some decent give in the ground for me to back Western Ryder in the County Hurdle. So far in his career his figures at Cheltenham read 51653. I suspect your response to those stats is, well that’s no big deal?
My retort would be 5th of 22 in the Champion Bumper, a 2L beating of Lalor in a novice hurdle, a close up sixth in last year’s Supreme, 5th of 18 in the Greatwood and 3rd of 8 in the International Hurdle. At a top price of 40/1 at the moment and with the layers set to offer maybe first six or more in the place market he looks titanic value.
And as for the Gold Cup, I am of the opinion that Anibale Fly won’t win the blue riband, but will be placed again and I will back him both ante-post and in running if he hits double figure odds in that market.