Graham Buddry
Graham Buddry analyses the jockey and trainer form at the Cheltenham Festival
Yes, jockey’ skills count for a lot and this is why
Last year an acquaintance asked me if there was such a thing as jockey preferences. The person asking the question argued that it was all about the horse and the jockey was just along for the ride and made very little difference to the final result as they could all ride and all they had to do was stay on. Yes, the horse is the most important factor but many things determine a result. Going and Distance are very important but the person on top can be just as vital.
This will be the sixth year I have looked into the jockey factor and some exceptionally strong pointers have been confirmed time and time again but they have to be taken into account with other factors. Just backing a favourite with a top class jockey isn’t always enough if strong trends can point you to an alternative runner.
Last year the unbeaten Apples Shakira was a red hot favourite for the Triumph Hurdle, a Grade 1 race with Barry Geraghty riding. No one seemed to notice that fillies just don’t win this race but I knew enough to look elsewhere for the winner.
Turning in, one filly led well with Apples Shakira seemingly going very easily indeed. When they crossed the line neither filly was in the first three. Some stats mean more than others and can have vagaries but jockeys are not passing whims and their preferences, or otherwise, should be taken careful note of. Our jockey factor, when taken into account with a trend such as that regarding fillies pointed us to two other possible winners instead. They filled the first two places at 9/1 and 8/1 respectively.
Having said that, even the Gods of Racing can raise a laugh at our expense.
Regular readers will remember that I have highlighted Mark Walsh as a jockey to be avoided at all costs during the Festival. Going into 2018 his figures at Prestbury Park read 0 from 51 yet still his first ride at the Festival was backed into favourite. Needless to say it lost.
At the other end of the spectrum Paul Townend has been put forward time and again as being one to avoid over fences but relied on like a Swiss watch to provide a good profit over hurdles. Taking my own advice and with no real fancy in the race I backed a Townend hurdler blind for the Coral Cup on the morning of the race. All good so far but then Ruby Walsh got injured, Townend was switched by Willie Mullins to the favourite and Mark Walsh came in for the ride on Bleu Berry. My heart sank as I looked at my betting slip for the race so imagine my surprise when it still won at 20/1. By backing a Townend hurdler blind I’d still landed a good winner even when he was switched to another horse and replaced by a jockey I wouldn’t normally touch with the proverbial bargepole. The irony of it still makes me smile.
Incidentally, the other six rides Mark Walsh had over the four days, including three other strongly fancied rides, all failed to make the frame. From 59 rides around Cheltenham, over half at the Festival, his sole winner was getting on a Paul Townend hurdler at the last minute. From our point of view Mark Walsh, no matter how competent elsewhere, is a jockey still to be completely avoided at Cheltenham.
On the subject of Paul Townend he has always been a jockey to follow over hurdles but avoid over fences and this advice has given a profit every year. Last year he again failed to score over fences, including an 8/11 shot, where 67% of his rides failed to finish. Over hurdles, not including the 20/1 shot that got away, he won twice, including at 12/1 and was twice placed at 7/1 (opened at 14/1) and 8/1 to provide yet another profit, enhanced, of course, if you backed his 20/1 mount for the Coral Cup before the late change of rider!
To answer the opening question of how much difference a jockey makes, the one thing I have drummed on
about over the years is the biggest races are won by the best jockeys. Look at the Grade 1 races at the 2018 Festival (excluding the Bumper as I always do) and only everyone’s tip as a future star, Jack Kennedy, and Harry Cobden put a G1 to their names outside of the big name jockeys.
In effect, Grade 1 winning jockeys won 11 of the 13 races (Kennedy’s later two counting after he had won the earlier Grade 1). If we further looked at the jockey recommendations just for the Grade 1 races at the 2018 Festival, not only did we narrow the fields down to smaller choices where 11 of the 13 races fell our way, we ruled out four favourites. Before his later success put him in our “good” books, we would have crossed out Apples Jade at 2-1 on. On Thursday Un De Sceaux, ridden by hurdles specialist Townend went down over fences at 11-8 on, and Sam Spinner was a no-show under Joe Colliver. Finally, on Day Four Santini was another beaten favourite when ridden by Nico de Boinville, noted as “a much better jockey over fences”. Of these, Sam Spinner was the most obvious to rule out due to the jockey factor.
Some might argue that the top jockeys win the top races because they have the best rides but that doesn’t hold water. It is the tactical awareness and measure of pace throughout a race that these guys have and the others struggle with. You only have to look at the favourite for the Stayers Hurdle of last year, Sam Spinner, under Joe Colliver to see what I mean. A good jockey elsewhere but on a proven stayer he led the field but set far too pedestrian a pace, so coming into the home straight a mighty phalanx of horses were still queued up to make their challenge.
Sam Spinner stays three miles well but has no finishing pace so it’s fair to argue the result would have been different with a top jockey on board. In the end a horse which hadn’t run for 323 days won the race from another which didn’t stay and had failed to win each time it had tackled the distance before with the third placed horse having lost five of the seven times it had tackled three miles before and its two victories over the trip had each been by a length or less.
A top jockey setting a stronger pace on a known stayer would almost certainly have offered up a different result while our advice was certainly to avoid backing it. I can’t stress any stronger that the top races are almost always won by the top jockeys.
I have consistently highlighted the “Four Aces”, Walsh, Geraghty, Russell and De Boinville and they won 75% of the feature races of the day between them, the Champion Jockey, Richard Johnson, winning the other one! Together they won five of the first seven Grade 1’s with Russell potting another of those on the New course as Walsh missed the rest of the meeting injured and De Boinville had a single ride at Towcester on the Thursday instead... needless to say it was a winning one for Henderson!
This will be our sixth year at looking specifically at jockey traits so we can delve into the advice from last year and harden some of the preferences they have shown.
To confirm what I’ve already touched on first, Mark Walsh is a rider to leave well alone, most especially in Grade 1 races. With the exception of jumping on a Paul Townend hurdler at the last moment, everything else he was associated with failed to make the first three, including some well backed rides. His only ride in a Grade 1 event was an unplaced second favourite, to go with his unplaced favourite in the Champion Hurdle a year before, so Mark Walsh is again to be strongly avoided.
Paul Townend was one to ignore over fences but could always be relied on for winners over hurdles. He had shown a marked preference for the Old course until 2017 and last year his best results also came over the New course, although he would have been on the Coral Cup winner on the Old course but for that last moment switch. It seems like this brilliant timber topper is now fully reliable over both courses and there is no reason why a profit should not be assured over hurdles again yet he still remains one to put a line through over fences.
Switching briefly to the only trainer I have highlighted over the years, Paul Nicholls was expected to provide us with a single low grade winner with the expectation it would be over hurdles. As it turned out his runners over hurdles produced a pair of places (at 9/1 and 33/1) and half of the rest failed to finish, leaving a large loss for supporters. Over fences it is now nine years since those halcyon days of Kauto Star et al. In 2018 his first ten runners
over fences produced four last places, a second last, three pulled up and two more unplaced. Eventually he hit the target, albeit in the Foxhunters, which begs the question of how low have his targets shifted? His final six runners over fences produced a winner in the last handicap along with three unplaced and two failing to finish to give all his runners in steeplechases the returns of P004000P0P100P10B. Including a brace of wins in the Foxhunters, Nicholls has sent out just five Festival winners over fences in the last nine years from a staggering 162 runners. Therefore, with the possible exception of the Foxhunters it seems backing any Nicholls runners at the Festival, most especially over fences, is the surest way to the poor house.
Back to the jockeys and the winning most jockey from 2018, Davy Russell, who has partnered at least one Festival winner every year since 2006. I highlighted again last year how this superb jockey has such a high percentage of his rides over fences placed and his winners would come over fences or in low grade hurdle races. Davy was nothing short of brilliant last year winning three times over fences, twice in Grade 1 races and never out of the first three on the New course. Over hurdles he rode another winner, in a lower grade event as expected, while also being placed at 25/1 and 33/1. A real master over fences, he can be relied upon for a good return over hurdles too and has more long priced horses making the places than any other jockey.
Ruby Walsh was with us for only a short time before another serious leg injury curtailed his Festival but in that time he weighed in with two more well fancied Grade 1 winners. It was highlighted that not all of his short priced favourites would win though and that rang true again as Getabird was comprehensively beaten in the first race of the meeting. Marked as better over hurdles he did do as expected as was the advice to ignore his longer priced runners, both of which fell. Ruby remains a very popular and consistent jockey, especially in the Grade 1 races but a liability when backing outside the first few in the betting. Another point which I have noted in the last few years is the sheer number of last fence fallers Walsh has. The question of course is why? It seems most likely they are perhaps not as good as expected but being primarily Mullins trained they are well fancied and in attempting to get that last ounce of effort to maintain a challenge they are literally falling short. Another warning is to be careful of Walsh ridden and Mullins trained shortpriced favourites if the actual form doesn’t bear out the shortened price.
Geraghty has also always been best over hurdles and it took until the last race of the meeting for him to snaffle a well backed winner over fences in the McManus colours. That aside he had a distant third in the Gold Cup and nothing else to show over fences where most of his mounts were pulled up. Over timber is where he excels, especially around the Old Course and that again provided him with a Grade 1 winner while the New Course gave him a pair of second places from six rides, a 16/1 shot and the favourite in the Coral Cup. Quite simply Geraghty is a hurdles specialist, primarily around the Old Course but his class always gives hope of something elsewhere if money shortens the odds of any McManus mount he’s on, as was the case with his Gold Cup 3rd and last race winner.
Last year De Boinville, the last of the four aces, was noted as being far better over fences than hurdles with a preference for the Old Course. His chase rides on the first two days brought a Grade 1 winner and a 14/1 second place from just three mounts while his solitary ride over fences on the New Course was a gallant second place on Might Bite in the Gold Cup. Conversely over hurdles he managed a placed ride on each course with the rest unplaced or failing to finish. De Boinville doesn’t get the rides his talent deserves yet he has clearly shown over the years that he is a big race specialist over fences with a slight preference for the Old Course while his non Grade 1 mounts over fences and all hurdles rides should be treated with caution.
Expectations were very low for Sam Twiston-Davies last year, especially with having to rely on Paul Nicholls for most of his rides but no matter what he rode it was yet another dire Festival for an otherwise very talented jockey. A single second place over hurdles with 60% of his remaining rides being pulled up while none of his chase rides made the first three with 33% failing to complete at all. Confidence breeds confidence and his must be low here so there is little reason to expect anything other than another low grade hurdler making the frame at best until he can get some decent ammunition.
With Tom Scudamore the advice has been consistently to avoid him like the plague over hurdles but expect a winner over fences, especially on the New Course. Last year he scraped no better than a 4th place over hurdles, as was expected, but failed us for once over fences. It didn’t help that David Pipe had fewer than normal runners
Some argue top jockeys win because they have the best rides but It is the tactical awareness and measure of pace these guys have that the others struggle with
last year and none of them performed well. I still believe Scudamore is a jockey to follow over fences and a look at his rides last year, despite the lack of returns, shows they still performed better over the New Course than the Old. Again I would automatically put a line through any hurdler he throws a leg over but think it wise to keep the faith over fences, especially on the last two days, providing the Pipe stable is not badly out of form or he picks up a decent mount elsewhere.
With Richard Johnson last year it was pointed out that any winners would have to come from other stables as the Hobbs yard was itself performing far below expectations. It was consistently pointed out that he was another top jockey to avoid over hurdles, although he confounded that in 2017 with a pair of winners over timber. Last year he was back to known form with a third of his nine rides over hurdles being pulled up and a distant 6th place the only one who got within telescope distance of the winner.
With only four rides over fences, three of these were for the out-of-form and to be avoided Hobbs yard, while the remainder was a certain Tizzard trained horse which won the Gold Cup. Fences are still his forte and it will pay to see if the Hobbs stable is in form going into the Festival or look elsewhere. If Hobbs is back in form maybe Johnson could rack up a winner or two over fences.
The only other jockey I mentioned last year was the hugely talented Bryan Cooper. It was amazing how one of the most talked about jockeys of only a few years ago was almost totally overlooked last year. The 2018 Festival provided Cooper with just two rides, both for Venetia Williams, and neither completed the course. Winners are what we would expect from him, especially at Grade 1 level, but he has to have the rides to get them so all I can suggest is if the quantity is there, the winners should be too.
Taking the mantle as the most exciting young jockey around last year was Jack Kennedy. It’s too soon to get a real handle on his preferences although worth noting that everything he rode over hurdles on the Old Course made the first three. Another hurdles success from just two rides on the New Course confirm the suspicion that he is definitely one to follow over hurdles, but primarily on the first two days. Over fences he weighed in with a winner from five rides but three others were pulled up and perhaps he needs things to go his way more over the bigger obstacles to score.
A final jockey to look at this year, and for the first time in depth, is Noel Fehily. Without doubt a top jockey who landed the Champion Hurdle when stepping in for the injured Barry Geraghty in 2017, but with very clear preferences. His career results show him equally adept at handling whatever comes his way but look closer and the evidence is very clear indeed. Fehily has twice as many Festival winners with hurdlers than chasers but the real eye opener is an astounding preference for the Old Course. In 2018 he opened the Festival with a 9/1 winner over hurdles and finished second to Samcro on another at 8/1 from just four rides. His two chase mounts ran into places while on the New Course Fehily was proverbially stuffed out of sight in each of his eight rides over obstacles, four of which were favourite or strongly fancied. Catch Fehily on the first two days, especially over hurdles, and you could end up well in profit, but forget him entirely for the last two days on the New course. Wow… we got there in the end.
My tips for last year? Footpad was listed as the banker of the meeting and duly obliged, unlike some of the other well backed favourites. For the Gold Cup I highlighted Native River. I had compared him to Burrough Hill Lad and pointed out how he would improve for his first run at Newbury, had won eight from ten on other galloping courses and with the Tizzard stable in form, unlike in 2017, Native River couldn’t finish outside the first two. I still had a huge smile on my face days after his epic victory as he achieved all I expected of him.
I had also suggested Might Bite would be placed but didn’t think he would stay. He ran a cracker of a race before expectedly running out of steam close home and deserves full credit for making the race what it was.
I also wrote that Road to Respect was my idea of the winner if the stable employed a top jockey but Flanagan kept the ride. Admittedly he gave the horse a great round, although was never in a challenging position, but top races are won by top jockeys and although the ground had turned against him I do wonder if he was ridden just to get placed. My biggest bet of the week, just ahead of
Footpad, was Native River but I also had a decent each way at 12/1 on Road to Respect (went off at 9/1) as he finished fourth. Fortunately my bet was with BetVictor who were going four places in the race. Happy Days!
What do I fancy this year?
Of the big races I have been sweet on Paisley Park for the Stayers Hurdle for some time. Last year’s race was a slow affair with a false result with horses in the mix who do not truly stay three miles. Penhill goes there again without a run behind him but this year there should be pace on and that will find him out. G1 winning jockey Aiden Coleman may not be one of the absolute elite but is a vastly under-rated pilot and the way Paisley Park won the Cleeve Hurdle makes him my banker of the meeting.
Altior looks unbeatable in the Champion Chase with whatever Ruby Walsh decides to ride (Footpad or Min) expected to chase him home. Perhaps the value here would be looking for a decent priced runner to fill the remaining place. Sceau Royal is a good little scrapper who likes Cheltenham and Lady Buttons is far better over fences than hurdles. At 14/1 and a whopping 33/1 respectively freely available (and bigger in places) at the time of writing either of these could prove to be the value bet of the race.
Buveur D’Air hasn’t much to beat in the Champion Hurdle as it looks a pretty poor race. Laurina is the only other one to catch the eye but she has never raced in anything but mare’s races and already seems better at a longer trip. It may even be a surprise if she turns up on the day. Apples Jade I feel is better suited by the minimum trip but one if not both these decent sorts will undoubtedly go for that awful invention, the Mares race. How many more good mares will be denied at least a crack at the Champion Hurdle in exchange for winning what is just a tin-pot event? Having said that, these two would only be playing for place money at best. The Christmas Hurdle was a minor blip where Buveur D’Air just got caught close home but I can’t see that happening again and now trading at around 6/4 this is like picking money off a tree.
The RyanAir is always a brilliant race but there are usually too many questions over who will run but Waiting Patiently already sticks out like a sore thumb.
For four years now I have tried to give you the Gold Cup winner and have landed two at 7/1 and 5/1 together with a third place and Cue Card who was cruising when crashing out at the third last.
This year I’ll apply the same principles as always to the 43 runners who still hold entries at the time of writing.
Many years ago ten years old was the optimum age for Gold Cup winners but times have changed and ruling out all runners in double figures already gets rid of thirteen, including old favourites Coneygree and Thistlecrack, who may still run into a minor place. Might Bite is another to go. Last year took too much out of him leaving just a husk this term and I still contend that he doesn’t stay the distance.
As mentioned before, Paul Nicholls chasers have been a dire lot at Prestbury Park since those halcyon days of long ago. So out go another four. Frodon, one of my favourite horses in training, would need a horse box to get the distance and will certainly be pulled up. Clan Des Obeaux greatly surprised me at Kempton, actually likes galloping tracks but has been beaten in all four races around Cheltenham’s New Course so a line is firmly through this one.
It’s imperative to have won a Grade 1 Chase which rules out mostly those no one would seriously back anyway. Elegant Escape is, however, the best of this group and will be doing all his best work at the business end, providing he doesn’t get too far detached during the race and get pulled up. A clear round and hanging on to the coat tails may result in a minor placing so it could pay to find a bookmaker paying out on more than just the first three home.
It may be contentious but I’m a firm advocate that Grade 1 form in Ireland must be seen over here for a horse to be taken seriously. Far too many times a multiple big race winner in Ireland fails time and again when in England and if a horse doesn’t have winning form this side of the Irish sea it’s another one to firmly rule out.
Into this category come Kemboy, well beaten on both starts outside Ire-
land, interestingly both at Cheltenham. Al Boum Photo, who fell, also at Cheltenham, on his only away jaunt. Bellshill and Monalee are also taken out here.
Of those remaining Balko Des Flos, Terrefort and Yorkhill don’t stay while Shattered Love and The Storyteller are badly out of form and of the five remaining Sizing John has been off too long and even if he gets a quick run in before the big day he is almost certainly a light of former days.
This leaves Presenting Percy, Native River, Road To Respect and Bristol De Mai.
Now is the time to look closely at the jockey factor and Road To Respect, a horse I have always liked a lot, bites the dust here. As per last year, Sean Flanagan is the issue. The biggest races are always won by the best jockeys and unless Road To Respect has one a minor place is again all he will be capable of.
That master jockey, Davy Russell, is on the favourite, Presenting Percy, who I was very impressed with last year. The question now is can this imposing and talented beast win the big one with just a single run over hurdles in the last 12 months? Realistically with no further race over fences he could still be classed as a novice in some eyes and this worries me as much as his lack of experience against top class opposition. Looking again at his victory in the RSA last year is also interesting. Five of the nine other runners failed to finish and of the four that did get to the end of the race, three haven’t won since.
The exception is Elegant Escape who is more of a Grand National horse. Of the five that didn’t reach the winning line three of them haven’t as much as been placed since with over half their combined runs failing to complete since. Al Boum Photo has at least won twice since falling last year but the only other winner scored just a low grade handicap from five subsequent attempts. All in all this means I am ruling Presenting Percy out this year but hoping he will still be one for the future.
Of the two now left Bristol De Mai has yet to win at Cheltenham from three attempts and despite looking better than ever this year he still needs to prove he is more than just a Haydock specialist. Given a good ride he might still run into a place for which upwards of 33/1 is of interest.
Although Native River is not in the form of last year this is entirely down to circumstances. Second to Bristol De Mai at Haydock is always commendable and Kempton was never going to be suitable so third place in the King George was another good result. We know he stays well, is a fighter and has the top class services of Richard Johnson on board but multiple winners of the Gold Cup are a rarity.
Regular readers will know I have compared this horse several times in the past to Burrough Hill Lad. That great horse was denied a chance at a second Gold Cup through injury, not such with Native River who I expect to eclipse the “Lad” and claim a second victory in the race.