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Geegeez.co.uk look at Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott
Looking at the Irish masters Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott
It’s Festival time again and, though the lead up to the big March jamboree has been anything but straightforward, we’re still set fair for a remarkable fiesta of racing. From a betting perspective, the hottest take on the Fez in recent years has been the utter dominance of Irish trainers, with two in particular ruling the roost: Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott.
Indeed, simply backing all Mullins and Elliott runners in the last two Festivals would have yielded a monster profit of £120.26 to a £1 level stake at starting price. At Betfair SP that rises to £193.57.
Is it just as simple as that, then? Possibly, but let’s investigate further.
As can be seen in table one, while the last two Festivals have been excellent for this ‘no brainer’ angle, the 2016 renewal would have buried the ‘back them blind’ punter. It is also worth noting that these two powerhouse yards have sent out an average of 83 horses per Festival between them in the past three years. That’s a lot of wagers! So let’s break it down using the last five Cheltenham Festivals (2014-18).
The headline figures are as Table Two but, as we know, there are good years and bad years (Table One).
When focusing on race type we can see that pretty much all of the profit comes from hurdle races, albeit that the win percentage in chases is slightly higher.
But what about nuances between the two handlers at the race code level? Here, things get interesting. We can see for Table Four that Gordon Elliott actually has a very good record in chases, but that Willie Mullins’ performance has been consistently poor, at least relative to his own peerless standards.
Elliott’s blue race code lines are a tale of unbroken profitability, with rock solid A/E figures (A/E, or Actual vs Expected, is a measure of performance against market expectation, with better than 1.00 being a positive indicator).
The Mullins effect, meanwhile, has long been factored into his horses’ prices with returns on his hurdlers and sole bumper winner barely covering the cost of the losers.
Let us now look at handicaps by race code and trainer. Again, we see an interesting pattern emerging, with a moderate P&L record in handicap chases despite Elliott’s solid strike rate.
Many more unexposed hurdlers are unleashed from these two yards and, as can be seen from the big profit numbers, it is not always the obvious one that prevails. Indeed, Mullins has struck with winners at 25/1 and 20/1 twice, while Elliott has chipped in with 20/1 and 33/1 scorers.
While we’re on handicaps, it is worth noting that Davy Russell has a much better record than Jack Kennedy for Elliott; while Paul Townend has a better record than Ruby Walsh (0 from 14, 1 place, in handicaps at the last five Festivals) for Mullins.
These are small sample sizes so caution is advised, but there are some interesting angles:
■ Willie Mullins’ chasers have fared poorly
■ Gordon Elliott’s runners have been profitable to back blind in each of the last four Festivals
■ Respect big-priced (20/1+) Elliott/Mullins handicap hurdlers (4/34, +£68 at SP)
Favour jockeys Russell over Kennedy, and Townend over Walsh in handicaps
All of the research in this article was undertaken using the Geegeez Gold Query Tool