Jockeys guide
How main riders have fared at Cheltenham over past five years
For a number of years now I have written a regular piece for Racing Ahead Magazine about the specific jockey preferences for the Cheltenham Festival and generally they have held true year after year. I am, however, sometimes asked why I don’t feature more jockeys and also why I run a particular line over the trainer, Paul Nicholls.
To answer the last question first, I became aware some years back that since the great days of Kauto Star, this brilliant trainer had struggled to have winners at the Festival, particularly over the bigger obstacles and once you’ve noticed this, you can’t un-see it. Hence I always included an update here but hasten to add it is nothing vindictive as I’ve visited his stable and interviewed him for this magazine in the past and hold him in very high respect.
On the jockey front, it must first be noted that many riders have very few mounts at the Festival, therefore reliable preferences are either impossible to pinpoint or potentially very unreliable, akin to backing a football team to win simply because they always perform well against opposing teams with a letter “T” in their name.
It should also be borne in mind that a lot of jockeys are just “good” and thus perform to this ability on a regular basis whatever the type of course, obstacle or going. It is the very best of the jockeys, who can perform to an exceptional level given their preferred circumstances and it is these which stick out the most. Having said that, a few new jockeys have been included in each of the last few years as their stats became more solid. Do you remember a few years back when Noel Fehily was included for the first time with the advice to keep a close eye on his rides over hurdles before he bagged that 50/1 winner?
The two types of obstacles tackled in National Hunt racing require different attributes. Hurdles are around 3½ feet high and positioned at an angle, they are met at a much faster pace and jumped on a flatter trajectory, horses often clearing them by millimetres or even clattering through them. Fences are about 4½ feet high (at least) and much more upright although they have a sloping face. They are also a lot wider, especially ditches and are thus jumped slower, at a steeper angle and require more precision to clear them efficiently. Just as some horses have preferences here, many jockeys prove more adept at racing over one type than another.
Cheltenham racecourse has two distinct courses (not counting the cross country) and they, too, are very different. The Old course, used on the first two days of the Festival is a much sharper course with the obstacles closer together and this plays to the strengths of nippy horses who are very quick and accurate at their obstacles. The New course, used of the last two days of the Festival is a much more galloping track with the obstacles farther apart. This suits the bigger, stronger horses best, and those who like to get into a good rhythm. As with the horses, a lot of jockeys have a preference here too, whether they realise it or not, for one type of course proving better suited to their own personal attributes. The trick is to spot those preferences and see if they can be used to our advantage in finding winners or, conversely, ruling out other fancied runners, in the way we have vigorously put a line successfully through many big race favourites down the years.
For this year I’ve taken a fresh look at every Festival result for the last five years to gain an even broader analysis of every jockey riding. I’ve excluded the Bumper, Cross Country, Amateur and Conditional races for obvious reasons as usual. To make these easier to assimilate I also divide the relevant races into three categories; Grade 1s, Handicaps and Others.
This is important for the prime point I have emphasised every single year and it follows with very few exceptions:
The best races (the Grade 1s) are almost always won by the best jockeys and those without a Grade 1 success on their CV struggle badly. This enables us to whittle all the Grade 1 races down to fewer runners, sometimes even ruling
out the favourite or other well fancied hopes.
In 2020 the 13 Grade 1 races we take into account were won by Townend
(4), Geraghty (2), Russell (2), De Boinville, Coleman, Blackmore, Skelton and Wedge, the last of whom had won his first Grade 1 race around 4 months earlier, but, importantly, they had all won such a race before.
The most prolific winning jockeys of the Grade 1 races I have referred to as the Four Aces: McCoy, Walsh, Geraghty and Russell. A few years ago De Boinville was correctly selected to replace McCoy and it’s only right now to include Townend for Walsh. Townend has always been a highly regarded jockey in these pages but thought was given to his standing in the Mullins hierarchy before his final inclusion here. Geraghty has also retired so for this year we will have to make do with just three Aces before a replacement can be proposed.
While on the subject of Mullins, that most excellent of Irish trainers, he has a dreadful Achilles heel that, without any shadow of a doubt, has cost him winyear ners and will surely continue to do so. In Flat racing Aidan O’Brien has employed his own sons to good effect, winning many Classics and other top races. Willie Mullins, unfortunately, has also taken to employing family members and the races they have managed to lose which top jockeys may surely have won are starting to mount up. The propensity of these are, alas, also in the Grade 1 events, whether it is the first fence unseating on Kemboy in the
Gold Cup two years ago, the nose defeat of Melon in the Ryanair last year or many others, this is a clear weakness of the trainer.
Below is a profile of all the jockeys who have ridden at the Festival over the last five years in all bar the excluded races mentioned. They have also had enough rides for any bias to start to show through.
Before that, though, a further thought on Paul Nicholls. Since the halcyon days of Kauto Star, Nicholls has now had 171 runners over fences with just a handful of winners, two of which came in the Foxhunters. Although Politologue won the Champion Chase last it is fair to say he fell into it with the defections of Altior and the Irish contingent before the odds-on favourite vastly underperformed. This was the only win for the yard from another nine runners over fences. From a further nine runners over hurdles, none made the first four and of his six runners in handicaps, the highest placing was tenth. With the possible exception of the Foxhunters, backing Ditcheat entries is a fast route to the poor house as he clearly conserves his best equine ammunition for Aintree and other targets.
We’ll tackle the jockey preferences in alphabetical order after first having a look at the Aces in the pack, starting with a final look at how Barry Geraghty became a profitable friend of these pages.
Note again, these are records from the last five years only, excluding the Bumper, Foxhunters, Cross Country, Amateur and Conditional races.
BARRY GERAGHTY. The advice from last year was, “Best over hurdles, preference for Old course, less effective
over fences unless on a McManus horse.” Last year he won five races, four over hurdles and a chaser for McManus. Three of these wins were on the Old course. Apart from the two New course hurdle wins, his other rides on the New course were unplaced. His only three wins over fences have been on McManus-owned runners. Hit the first four on nine of ten Grade 1 chasers. Apart from one handicap chase win (McManus), the other seven handicappers were unplaced. Seven of nine Old course Grade 1 hurdlers made the first five. Seven of his ten winners were over hurdles. Both Geraghty and the profits we could regularly find through his selected rides will be sadly missed.
NICO DE BOINVILLE. Last year, “Best on the Old course, Ignore non Grade 1 chasers, better over fences than hurdles.” Last year his only win was a Grade 1 on the Old course, albeit over hurdles at 6/1. He failed to make the frame in non Grade 1 events and while 40% of his chase rides made the first four, apart from his hurdle winner, the other seven rides over timber were well beaten.
Analysis: Eight of his nine winners have been on the Old course. Seven of nine Grade 1 chasers on the Old course finished first or second. Of nine handicap chasers on either course none have made the frame. Four of seven New course chasers made the first four. All six non Grade 1 hurdlers on the New course were well beaten.
DAVY RUSSELL. Sadly missing this year after not recovering sufficiently from a fall last October. To recap on last year: “Russell is expected to bang in the winners again, especially Grade 1 chasers and handicap hurdlers.” Three winners in 2020 (two Grade 1’s and a handicap) was a good return to form while in handicap hurdles his four runners returned three places for a decent profit.
Analysis: Of ten winners in the past five years, all of which were in either Grade 1 events or handicaps, seven have been on the New course. Chasers on this course have been placed in 8 of 14 races, four failed to finish and only two were unplaced. When fully fit, arguably the best jockey still riding.
PAUL TOWNEND. The advice for last year was turned on its head by his eventual promotion to No. 1 jockey for the powerful Mullins team, leaving him to win races that would normally have been the province of Ruby Walsh.
Analysis: Of ten wins in the past five years, nine of these have been on the New course. He still retains an excellent returns rate over hurdles as this was always his forte and although now scoring over fences on the New course, his hurdles returns here are staggeringly good. Of six winners here in five years, four were returned in double figures for an enormous profit of over 48 points to a level stake.
BRIDGET ANDREWS. Only nine rides, all of which have been in handicaps. Only one ride on the Old course. Sole winner, at 33/1, coming over hurdles. Probably best to avoid, especially on the Old course or out of handicap class.
DAVID BASS. Two winners from 23 rides, both coming on the Old course. A single third place from nine rides on the New course at least rules him out here.
TOM BELLAMY. Only eight rides, half of which were last year. A second place at 40/1 in a handicap hurdle his only return. Awful results so far on the Old course and out of handicap company.
RACHAEL BLACKMORE. Thirty five rides have brought two wins, both on the Old course. Improving jockey and results getting better so one to watch, especially on the Old course.
JAMES BOWEN. Only nine rides but two decent places (at 14/1 and 8/1) on the Old course, the first of which was his only ride over fences. Avoid on the New course.
SEAN BOWEN. Sixteen rides for a solitary second place. One to avoid.
PADDY BRENNAN. Twenty nine rides without a winner although he’s had six places. Strangely, his best results have been in Grade 1 chases on the Old course, both third at 40/1 and 33/1. Hurdlers on this course have returned particularly dire results.
JOHNATHAN BURKE. Twenty six rides, 13 of which failed to finish, with only a few places, each being chasers on the Old course. Best to ignore.
TOM CANNON. Still looking for an improvement on a sixth place from 18 rides. Avoid.
HARRY COBDEN. Although he’s had two winners and a handful of places during our five year period these were not recent. Last year a single 4th place at 5/1 was his best result from a dozen mounts and although a talented jockey, you could well be seriously out
of pocket following him.
AIDAN COLEMAN. A couple of winners and four place returns from 45 rides doesn’t look too hot. Narrow your bets down to Grade 1 runners only and you’d be on a small profit. Despite Paisley Park in 2019, Coleman has shown far better form on the Old course and his Grade 1 rides here have returned a fair profit, better still with some of the place returns.
JOE COLLIVER. Only three rides, all surprisingly in Grade 1 events, but his general inexperience as highlighted on Sam Spinner a few years back make him one to immediately put a line through.
DANNY COOK. Only had one ride last year to make a total of nine in all but four of those have been placed, all in handicaps at up to 33/1. Worth watching in this sphere especially on the Old course.
BRYAN COOPER. One time golden boy who seemed set for the top came back last year with three placed rides from just five mounts. Clearly very talented, he’s shown a marked preference for the New course and if his confidence is good he could well be one to keep on side with.
CHARLIE DEUTSCH. Still looking for that first winner from 17 rides in the last five years. Generally atrocious form, especially on the Old course and over hurdles. Worth noting that four Grade 1 rides over fences around the New course have brought two places at 33/1 and 40/1. Food for thought but worth opposing elsewhere.
SEAN FLANAGAN. Never better than third from 15 rides. Interestingly three places from as many rides in Grade 1 events over fences on the New course. Very poor returns elsewhere.
BRYONY FROST. Ten rides now and already showing marked preferences. Abysmal returns over hurdles and poor form generally on the Old course. Fences have provided half her rides, four of which have finished in the first five, including that famous win on Frodon. Clearly suited to the bigger obstacles in Grade 1 events.
CIARAN GETHINGS. Nothing to show from a handful of rides but with a bit more experience he might do well.
ADRIAN HESKIN. Although still looking for that first winner, his five year form shows a total abhorrence of hurdles while handicap chasers have hit the frame three times from eight attempts, Grade 1 form generally being poor.
BRIAN HUGHES. The Champion Jockey of last season only had three rides at the 2020 Festival for no returns. Both winners in the last five years have been handicap chasers on the Old course (He didn’t ride a handicap chaser on this course last year). None of his 14 hurdlers on either course made the frame and only one of his chase rides over the New course.
DARYL JACOB. A first success came his way last year at 9/2 from his total 47 rides over the last five years. Overall one to avoid around the Old course with only four places from 21 rides here as opposed to ten places from 26 rides over the New course, although four of those returned at 4/1 or less, handicappers providing the bigger odds.
RICHARD JOHNSON. Last year, as all previous years, I issued a health warning about backing the former champ over hurdles. Not one of his six runners over timber gave a return while neither of his chase rides even finished. Admittedly he’s had two winners over timber in our time frame but virtually everything else here finishes well down the field. What to make of such a talented jockey? The only place where a profit is possible would be to follow his Grade 1 chasers over the New course where three of four have won or been placed.
JACK KENNEDY. Missed the 2020 Festival through injury. Of five winners from 34 rides, four have come over hurdles and four were in Grade 1 races. Generally poor results in all handicaps and on chasers on the Old course.
JERRY McGRATH. Only show is a winner and two second places from six rides on handicap chasers on the Old course yet the only two rides in that category last year were both pulled up. May still be worth a look this year. Very poor results everywhere else.
RICHIE McLERNON. Has only had ten rides, all in handicaps with a solitary second place at 8/1 to show for his pains. One to avoid.
DONAGH MEYLER. Quite inexperienced although I feel he could be one to watch over the next few years, especially on handicap hurdlers on the New course.
JAMIE MOORE. Sixteen rides during our five year study without a visit to the winners’ enclosure. In truth, quite terrible placings everywhere except chasers on the New course, although as with McGrath, both rides in that sphere last year were pulled up yet this is the only area in which he normally does well.
JOSH MOORE. A single third place from 14 rides shows him as one to leave alone when making your selections.
DANNY MULLINS. Only a spattering of minor places from 26 rides, 16 of which were in Grade 1 company. To my mind this shows he is getting good mounts primarily through who he is (a nephew of Willie) and the total lack of winners puts his jockey skills into stark perspective. Not a jockey I’d like riding any fancy of mine.
DAVID MULLINS. As above,41 rides for a handful of places. Twenty seven of these rides were in Grade 1 events including all eight on chasers over the New course. Another nephew where the name seems more important than the ability shown. Back at your peril and rue the missed chance of having a top jockey on board. (David announced his retirement from the saddle, aged just 24, in January.)
MR P MULLINS. Only 15 rides in our sample races, all bar three of which came in Grade 1 events. There are no winners included here. Four minor places, however, are overshadowed by a third of his mounts failing to finish, of which only one was pulled up.
TOM O’BRIEN. Still searching for that first winner from 29 rides. Interestingly has five minor places (3rd and 4th) to his name, all in handicaps, and three of these came over hurdles on the New course at 50/1, 33/1 and 12/1 so at least a possibility of a nice return if keeping to that form.
JONJO O’NEILL JR. Nine rides so far for the youngster, all bar one on the New course. A 5/1 winner in a handicap hurdle there is the only time he’s bettered ninth place. A hard act to follow in his dad and one to perhaps leave alone unless riding for him in the McManus colours.
DENIS O’REGAN. A solitary win at 8/1 from his only ride over fences (a handicap) around the Old course in the last five years with otherwise dire results.
ROBBIE POWER. One of the best jockeys around but another with interesting Festival form. Never as much as made the frame from seven rides over fences on the Old course. Hurdlers here have supplied a winner at 16/1 and a second place at 66/1 from 15 rides, while another 16 hurdlers on the New course have been desperately poor. Two New course winners over fences provide a small six point profit from a dozen rides and here seems the only place to play if looking for a return.
SEAN QUINLAN. Only eight rides and half of them have failed to finish with three of the remainder finishing in double figure places. Six of these were over fences, so beware here, while his best two rides have both been over timber around the Old course.
CHAD SCHOFIELD. Five year figures show six of his eight mounts over fences were pulled up and the other two finished a long way back. Over hurdles all five on the New course failed to make the frame while he did manage a single second place (at 20/1) on one of his two hurdlers on the Old course. Clearly avoid over fences if not altogether.
TOM SCUDAMORE. A jockey who has repeatedly had a health warning about backing his mounts over hurdles with just an Even money favourite scoring from 23 rides now over timber. Always looked at as far better over fences, none of his non-handicap rides have made the frame. His form shows he rides the New course consistently well but doesn’t have the ammunition to turn the top six finishes into winners. Conversely, on the Old course he has two handicap winners at 11/1 and 9/1 with two others not too far away while the other three failed to finish. This, then, is the place to perhaps catch a winner from him now.
GAVIN SHEEHAN. From the four spheres we are looking at, Sheehan has a single third place from five rides over birch around the Old course, this in a Grade 1 event. Over hurdles here he has another third place, this time at 25/1, in another Grade 1 from three rides. His sole winner was a handicap chaser over fences on the New course at 100/30 with a second place from his other four rides here. Eleven rides over hurdles on the New course have produced no returns and seem best left alone although three of his Grade 1 mounts here all finished fourth. Even though his only winner was in a handi
cap, his Grade 1 results in all spheres show a good level of consistency and could prove worth following in the each-way markets.
HARRY SKELTON. Apart from landing the Champion Chase at 6/1 when the race fell apart, poor results from his other eleven rides last year did him no favours. His other three winners over the last five years have been over hurdles, one of which was a Mares race on the Old course. In short, his form over fences leaves vast room for improvement while he’s shown clearly best results on handicap hurdlers on the New course.
JJ SLEVIN. A clear set of preferences here. His winner and three of his four places were all in handicaps, which may produce another small profit, while his other rides should be avoided. Best results are also clearly on the Old course.
SAM TWISTON-DAVIES. A full 70 rides over the last five years with just two winners in that time, both a long while ago. Fourteen rides last year produced a best placed fifth. In truth I can find nothing in his stats which would encourage me to place a bet on anything he rode. Of his two long ago winners, one was an Old course hurdler and the other a New course chaser but they did have one thing in common, both being handicappers. Among these 70 rides four of them were also placed, again all in handicaps, but none over hurdles or on the New course where nothing has made the first four.
SAM WALEY-COHEN. A while ago now since that emotional victory aboard Long Run in the Gold Cup with Denman and Kauto Star in his wake. Only had seven rides which now fit our criteria but some good stats. Avoid over hurdles as none of his four mounts have made the frame. His other three rides were handicappers over fences and two of the three both finished third (at 22/1 and 14/1) while the other was sixth. Not the biggest selection of races but those conversant with his style will already know he is not the best over hurdles and worth a punt (especially in handicaps it seems) over the bigger obstacles as is borne out here.
MARK WALSH. For years he has been the whipping boy in these pages having accrued by far the largest number of losing Festival rides before eventually winning. I warned last year that those three wins in 2019 may have been a flash in the pan although it would be worth keeping an eye on him over hurdles during the first two days (Old course). He did, indeed, win one of his five races here last year but the rest of his mounts reverted to type. Far from the best over fences where I would readily ignore him every time, Walsh’s form is still abysmal around the New course. He may have found a niche on hurdlers over the Old course as this is where all his four wins have come but don’t forget he has also ridden some awful races here as well. Perhaps give him the benefit of the huge doubt for another year here but beware going anywhere near anything else he rides.
ADAM WEDGE. From 17 rides during our five year analysis, Wedge has finally landed a winner at a whopping 50/1. This was a Grade 1 hurdler while his only other place over timber, again in a Grade 1 race, was third at an even bigger 80/1, more surprisingly both these were championship races. All his other seven hurdles mounts were stuffed out of sight. In contrast, two of his eight rides over fences produced a pair of placed mounts, at 33/1 and 14/1, both of these on handicappers. Taking into account that three of his other five handicap chasers failed to finish (as did his only Grade 1 chase ride) it leaves room for thought and great studying of the form there and perhaps a leap of faith on his Grade 1 hurdle rides.
That, hopefully, may give us an edge in the annual battle with those bookie chaps, but how did I do last year? In Tiger Roll’s Cross Country race I pointed out you should take note of the Frenchman. He won!
In 2020 I was also defending my 100% record of Festival best bets. I wrote that I’d narrowed it down to two McManus chasers. I named Champ, who won in arguably the best finish of the meeting but wrote that just shading him as my best bet was Defi Du Seuil. Altior and the Irish contingent then dropped out, Defi went odds on and ran a shocker against horses he had beaten senseless in previous races. Oh well, at least Champ won.
This year Shishkin, Paisley Park, Monkfish, Envoi Allen and Al Boum Photo (although take note of Native River if the ground is soft) all look exceptionally good things but not all the “good things” will win. As such, and with a strong degree of confidence, I would put forward my best bet as being Appreciate It in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle which opens the best four days in any sport. Good luck to us all.