PAUL JACOBS
Five against the field for Grand National week
First up, the case of Tiger Roll. I simply cannot take seriously what their outspoken owners said about his new mark, especially when Gordon Elliot thought that his rating was fair and realistic.
Since the weights were published, though, the 11-year-old has almost made up his own mind about a third challenge in the race with a dire run in the Boyne Hurdle and if the O’Leary brothers had hung fire they could have engineered a less radical road to withdrawal.
The fact that they took the path they did strongly suggests they want to be the centre of attention and think the great race owes them something.
That, together with more important racing reasons, means that Red Rum will always be regarded as the greater of the two Aintree heroes. The latter, was never afforded any semblance of mercy by the handicapper during his marvellous Liverpool reign.
And so onto this year’s race and the biggest disappointment was the sad demise of The Conditional during the Denman Chase at Newbury.
I spoke to trainer David Bridgwater as soon as the weights came out and even this Aintree pessimist showed more than a glimmer of excitement at training his stable star for the historical marathon.
I was lucky enough to back current favourite Cloth Cap at 16/1 for the race before his Kelso jaunt and being so well in at the weights, as long as the weather behaves itself, he seems sure to start in the region of 4/1 granted good ground and looks the ideal National type.
DEISE ABA
weight 9-13 – Handicap rating 142 Following a cracking novice chase campaign I had earmarked the Phillip Hobbs’ runner as a perfect Welsh National type, but his experienced handler had to take a pull following two appalling efforts at the back end of 2020.
However, following a break, the son of Mahler returned to form in fine style to land a class two handicap at Sandown Park off a mark of 137, showing that stamina was once again his strong suit as he battled on up the stiff Esher hill to beat Coo Star Sivola by over four lengths.
He made all on that last occasion, an advantage at Aintree, but seems flexible as far as tactics are concerned and if he sneaks in at the bottom of the weights I could see going off at half his current advertised odds of around 40/1.
BALKO DES FLOS
10-9 - 152
Both Kimberlite Candy (soft ground reliant) and Burrows Saint will be well tipped up in the forthcoming previews for the big race, but have already been found in the market place so I am going to go out on a limb and suggest this Henry De Bromhead charge to add to our team.
Rated as high as 165 after running Kemboy to nine lengths at Aintree 2019, (169 the previous year), he has since run six times without really showing an awful lot, but deep ground on four of those runs would have been against him and five of those outings were in graded company.
Something had to give and the handicapper has, I feel, erred slightly on the generous side in dropping him to a mark of 152, with a lovely racing weight to boot.
DISCORAMA
10-6 – 149
If ever a stayer has the stamp of Grand National horse then it is surely Paul Nolan’s charge, but he has been a difficult animal to keep sound with only six visits to the racecourse since October 2019.
His staying-on second to Le Breuil in the 2019 National Hunt Chase showcased his talent when that contest was still run over four miles as he powered up the final climb to be beaten a diminishing half a length.
And his two runs in 2020 when a closing third to The Conditional in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham and a short head second to Milan Native at Galway off a mark of 150 only served to cement that belief.
On his only subsequent start,
Robbie Power reported that he simply ran too free at Cheltenham in November and in order to preserve his handicap mark he has been kept on the side lines having been assigned a rating of 149.
If he goes to post fit and ready to roll he still has the potential to make his mark.
THE JAM MAN
10-7 – 150
The time honoured tradition of a Liverpool-bound horse having his mark protected by running over hurdles has once again been fulfilled by this eightyear-old gelding.
Unlike two of the entries in this list he is pretty well exposed with 42 career starts to his name –seven wins from 25 outings over fences – and he is a full 21lbs higher than for his impressive success in the Troytown Handicap in November.
That was a career best at Navan and his first start over fences since July 2019 for this hugely talented individual who has in that time run well in some top class staying handicaps on the flat and over hurdles to boot.
The other huge positives with him are his clean jumping, ability to handle quicker ground and deep stamina.
You could argue a mark of 150 is pushing the boundaries, but he ran very well off 148 when sixth of 17 behind Main Fact in a top class handicap hurdle at Haydock and I fancy this has been the aim all season.
MAGIC OF LIGHT
10-13 – 156
The question is, had this brilliant mare either had a lead to the last in the 2019 National and/or not made a shuddering mistake, would she have beaten the mighty Tiger Roll?
I don’t think you could say with
100 per cent certainty that she would have won, because TR has that vital asset of a high cruising speed off which, even at the end of four and a quarter miles, he can quicken. What you can confidently say is that Magic of Light would have been closer and may well have got up on the line.
The mare is 5lbs higher than two years ago and continues to churn out some top class performances at both Newbury and Ascot.
She has once again been targeted at this race and it is worth remembering that this will be only her 18th start over fences.
Granted some give in the ground she remains a force to be reckoned with in this historic marathon and no other horse in the line up will see the trip out as well as this mare.