AINTREE DAY TWO
Friday’s big races at Antree and Ben Morgan’s selections
Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle
When compiling a list of possible runners here I somehow managed to put together a shortlist of 14 horses who I wanted to mention so safe to say this is probably going to be a competitive handicap hurdle.
Tea Clipper bounced back to form in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham and should strip fitter for that run. He brings a good level of form to the table having won a nice race at Chepstow at the beginning of the season. Judging by his Chetlenham run, he could still have a few pounds in hand.
Similar comments apply to Guard Your Dreams and Craigneche. Nicky Henderson could send Monte Cristo and Champagne Platinum here and both would be interesting. The former is well regarded and connections are confident he is better than what he showed at the festival. Whilst the latter didn’t appear to stay the 3 mile trip in the Pertemps so a drop back in trip might be what he needs.
I’d also expect a better performance from Palmers Hill who is lurking on a good mark whilst stablemate Dream Berry comes alive in the Spring.
Castle Robin has had a long season but a mark of 130 definitely underestimates his ability whilst Kerry Lee’s exciting novice Ballybegg could step into handicap company for the first time off a lenient mark.
Millers Bank won in the style of graded horse last time out for the upwardly mobile Alex Hales yard and although the handicapper would have had his say, he might just have one more handicap in him.
A horse who has been on my radar all season is HOMETOWN BOY for the Stuart Edmunds stable. He reappeared with a cosy success at Kempton and has gone up 7lb for that success. That should see him off a nice racing weight here and although connections will want to see some juice in the ground before allowing him to run, if he does run he still looks like a well handicapped horse to me.
1) Hometown Boy
2) Palmers Hill
3) Millers Bank
Betway Top Novices Hurdle
Appreciate It took this division by the scruff of the neck at Cheltenham but his rivals will be spared another beating as he is almost certain to stay in Ireland for the remainder of the year. This leaves the door open and I will be intrigued to see who walks through.
The Dan Skelton pair of Third Time Lucki and Calico are possibles and I will be interested in the latter if he turns up here. He’s looked a smart recruit to hurdles so far this season and although his trainer has spoken about some valuable handicaps possibly being the plan, the handicapper may just have his number depending on what opening mark he allocates
him. He should however be suited to the emphasis on speed in this race as he only got outstayed at Kempton in the Dovecote by a strong staying type and looked all speed at Warwick last time. He would be an interesting runner.
Ballyadam is a possible runner given it looks unlikely that he is going to turn the tables on Appreciate It. Henry De Bromhead will be well aware this horse is a smart horse in his own right and deserves a day in the sun so this race would look appealing.
He might just be vulnerable to the improving SOARING GLORY however and it’s Jonjo O’Neill’s horse who gets the vote. In hindsight they should have skipped Cheltenham as they weren’t all that keen on going along with the soft ground and the short gap between the Betfair Hurdle and the Supreme all went against him. It’s clear to me that this horse is at least a stone better on good ground and when encountering proper decent ground I think we will see a really nice horse. He should love the track and I can see him running a big race. He hasn’t been overcooked this year so should still have the reserves for one more battle.
Don’t forget For Pleasure who managed to cling on for third in the Supreme. He could get loose on the front end around this tight track and that is when he is most dangerous.
1) Soaring Glory
2) Ballyadam
3) Calico
Mildmay Novices Chase
As mentioned previously, I expect CHANTRY HOUSE to step up to three miles at Aintree and I also expect that to bring about a great deal of improvement. That could be very worrying for his rivals here as he’s proven himself to be a high class performer already in his career. A third in a hot Supreme last year showed he had plenty of ability and he has excelled over fences this year despite one minor blip early on. He was certainly strongest at the finish in the Marsh Chase and his jumping has been more than adequate so far so I am struggling to find a chink in his armour. The acid test will undoubtedly come next year when he steps into open company but from what we have seen so far, he should make the step up quite comfortably.
Sporting John has questions to answer after a below par run in the Brown Advisory. He looked such a talented horse last year, it is disappointing to see him struggle this year despite winning a Grade 1 at Sandown. Perhaps that gruelling race left a mark.
Paul Nicholls’ Next Destination is a possibility here after he beat everything in the National Hunt Chase apart from the impressive Galvin. Ideally, he wants an end to end gallop as he is a dour stayer so 3 miles around Aintree might just be a little quick for him.
Similar comments apply to The Big Breakaway who ran slightly underwhelming in the Brown Advisory. I think connections missed a trick not entering him in the National Hunt Chase as he would have been ideally suited to that test.
His stablemate, Fiddlerontheroof, certainly gave his best shot at the machine that is Monkfish but just came up short in the end. It was still a high class performance and he impressed me how he jumped and galloped up the Cheltenham hill . I can see him turning up here and he would be the one who might give the selection the most to think about.
1) Chantry House 2) Fiddlerontheroof
3) Next Destination
Marsh Melling Chase
This could be an emotional 15 minutes or so if ALTIOR turns up here. After being forced to miss Cheltenham for a second consecutive year, connections of the great Altior will certainly be
hurting. His stablemate Shishkin is waiting in the wings and looks certain to take top 2 mile honours back to Seven Barrows for years to come so now looks the right time to call it a day. He would have this option over 2m 4f or he could go back to Sandown for the Celebration Chase over 2m. I’d like to see him run here as I think the trip will suit him as he definitely stays further than 2 miles and the fast nature of the track will certainly keep him honest. He has been the best for a few seasons now so it would be fitting if he bows out with a victory.
His rivals will make sure he doesn’t have it all his own way however. Politologue, a late withdrawal from the Champion Chase, has won this race before and like Altior is perfectly suited to this intermediate trip. Altior would hold him on previous form though and I can see no reason as to why he would reverse that form now.
The mightily impressive, Allaho, would seem an obvious contender but I would have to doubt his participation with Willie Mullins seemingly keen to keep him on home turf for the remainder of this term.
That leaves Sceau Royal as Altior’s only genuine rival that I can see and after being found completely devoid of luck at Cheltenham, he is certainly due a bit of good fortune.
There is no doubt in my mind that he would have won the Champion Chase had he not met interference at a crucial stage in the race and that would have been a fitting reward for a horse so underrated.
He’s danced every dance in his career and you would be able to count the number of bad runs on one hand. Connections have been keen to step him up to 2m 4f for some time and I think it will be interesting to see how he fares.
1) Altior
2) Sceau Royal
3) Politologue
Topham Chase
Like the feature race on Day 3, it normally pays to find a horse who has course form over the National fences here and those horses might just be at a premium this year. Beau Bay took the ‘trial’ for this race in December when winning the Grand Sefton Chase and he has since proven himself in good heart when winning a competitive Veterans heat at Doncaster. Dr Richard Newlands knows what it takes to win around here so this fellow must be high up on anyone’s shortlist.
Nigel Twiston-Davies boasts a strong record over these fences and his Flying Angel has proven himself a bit of an enigma over the years but these fences do seem to bring out the best in him. A high class novice chaser, he hasn’t really kicked on in his career but he’s operating off a dangerous mark these days and the fact he gets on so well around her shouldn’t be ignored.
The Venetia Williams pair of Aso and Cepage would undoubtedly be interesting here albeit they would be shouldering somewhere near top weight.
Two that really interest me both hail from the Paul Nicholls stable. First up is Sametegal who is slowly turning out to be my cliff horse. His record over these National fences is impressive though which is why he keeps sucking me in. A recent spell hunter chasing suggests connections may be thinking about the Foxhunter Chase around here on Day 1 but I would have doubts over his stamina in that race and I’d rather see him run here.
My selection in the race though is his stablemate MODUS. He seems to have been around a while this lad as he was a high class bumper horse for Robert Stephens once upon a time but has developed into a mighty fine chaser now with Nicholls. I think connections have saved him for this race since he finished third to Beau Bay over
course and distance in December. He showed a real aptitude that day for these unique fences and stayed on nicely to finish third. In his previous run this season he bolted up at Aintree over the regulation fences on what was his first start of the year. That suggested to me he is best kept fresh and his absence since the Sefton must be seen as a positive if you want to back him here.
1) Modus
2) Beau Bay
3) Flying Angel
Sefton Novices Hurdle
This is a tough race to get a handle on. The Irish dominated the Albert Bartlett at the Festival but that form doesn’t always hold out in this race and I doubt many will head over anyway.
Oscar Elite proved the best of the British runners as he bounced back to form after a couple of below par runs. He looked an absolute picture in the paddock and he looks sure to make a lovely chaser next term. Connections may be tempted to turn him back out here as I don’t think it will be that deep and he must be respected.
Alaphillipe didn’t quite live up to expectations and I couldn’t see an obvious excuse as to why he may perform better here. Similar comments apply to Adrimel who just didn’t look at home on decent ground.
Threeunderthrufive may be better than what he showed at Cheltenham. His earlier form at Ludlow and Musselburgh, two flat tracks, looked decent and he may be more at home at Aintree where he can settle into a rhythm.
Slight preference is for CASTLE ROBIN who was a late non runner at Cheltenham but has had a productive season. He took a Cheltenham handicap in October and has performed well since. He looked like the sort of horse to benefit from going up in trip and although he didn’t cover himself in glory at Doncaster, that is a race which throws up strange results. He could bounce back here if he isn’t feeling the effects of a busy season.
1) Castle Robin 2) Threeunderthrufive
3) Oscar Elite
Pinsent Masons Conditional Hurdle
One of the least inspiring races of the Aintree festival but still a competitive one all the same. It’s hard to predict what is going to turn up here at this early stage but I have made note of some 2 mile handicap hurdlers which have caught eye throughout the season.
First up is One True King who despite looking like he has lost his way recently does have genuine excuses for some poor performances of late. The Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton was a strange race and he wasn’t the only horse to underperform but looking back after his Ascot run it is possible that he doesn’t quite stay that extended trip. Back down to 2 miles with Jordan Nailor on his back then he could bounce back to form here.
Magic Dancer is a standing dish in these sorts of races and despite not getting any younger I do believe he retains all of his ability still. He has been flying high in some hot races during the Autumn and has run well without troubling the judge. With his sights lowered he could hit the frame once again. Blakeney Point is an interesting runner who should benefit from the better ground in the Spring and is lurking on a useful mark. He represents a stable who do well here so must be respected.
Ashington has moved to Brian Ellisons’s stable and is one that I think is definitely on a winning mark. He showed some useful form for John Quinn but didn’t get his head in front as often as he should have done I felt. If the switch of stables perks him up then I can see him being competitive in these sort of races.
One that I am really looking forward to seeing next time out is HAAFAPIECE who came to grief when running a huge race at Cheltenham in the Autumn in a similar event. That would have been a strong bit of form had he stayed on his feet and he was put away for the winter after that. He returned at Wetherby with a conspicuous effort but that would have put him spot on for his next assignment which I hope might be this.
1) Haafapiece
2) Ashington
3) One True King