IRISH NATIONAL
Andy Newton provides the trends for the Fairyhouse marathon
The Irish Grand National is always staged on Easter Monday at Fairyhouse, so with the bunny and chocolate egg festivities early this year, the 2021 renewal will be run on April 5 – and five days BEFORE the Aintree Grand National.
Therefore, some connections will have to make a choice as to which race to run in and with the Scottish National set to be run on April 17, then it’s Grand National carnage in the first two weeks of the month.
This is also another race that was lost to the Coronavirus situation last year – with the last winner being the Willie Mullins-trained Burrows Saint in 2019, who was also providing the popular Irish handler with his first success in the race.
Let’s take a look at some of the key trends:
Weight – You can start your weight cut-off point at 10st 13lbs or less as 16 of the last 17 winners ticked this trend, but you can also take this a bit further. With 82% of the last 17 winners having 10st 8lbs or less, then you could whittle down the runners further with this stat, or if you’re feeling a bit braver, it could pay to note 12 of the last 17 winners (71%) won with just 10st 6lbs or less on their backs.
Recent Run/Form – Having a recent run within the last eight weeks is another trend to have on your side – 16 of the last 17 winners supported this trend, plus 10 of the last 17 ran in the last 4 weeks. The same amount had also won a race over at least 3m in the past, while 10 of the last 17 winners came into the race off a top four finish last time out, but it’s worth pointing out only 3 of the last 17 won their last outing.
Track Form – The most recent winner of the race – Burrows Saint – was having his debut run at Fairyhouse, but in general previous experience of the course is certainly something to look for with 12 of the last 17 successful horses having raced at the track before.
Betting – In the last 17 runnings, the average winning SP has been 20/1 – this tells us to not be afraid to look a bit further down the market for the winner. Yes, Burrows Saint was sent off as the 6/1 favourite, but he was only the third winning market leader since 2003 and we’ve seen 11 of the last 17 jollies finish unplaced. This is further backed up with 13 of the last 17 winners coming from outside the top three in the market and also returning a double-figure price.
Age – Unlike the Aintree Grand National, where horses aged 7 or younger have struggled in recent times, the Irish version has been okay for the younger runners. Burrows Saint was a 6 year-old when he won in 2019, while 50% of the last six winners have been aged 7 – did you know, the last 7 year-old to land the Aintree
Grand National was in 1940! We saw a couple of 10 year-olds win the Irish National in 2012 and 2013, but since 1998 (22 runnings) we’ve had 19 runners aged 9 or younger.
Good Luck!
Recent Irish Grand National Winners
2020 – No Race
2019 – BURROWS SAINT (6/1 fav) 2018 – GENERAL PRINCIPLE (20/1) 2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1) 2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav) 2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1) 2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1) 2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1) 2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1) 2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)
Key Irish Grand National Betting Trends
16/17 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
16/17 – Had raced within last 8 weeks 16/17 – Won over at least 3m previously 15/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
14/17 – Irish bred
14/17 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
13/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in
the betting
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price 14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/17 – Won by an Irish-based trainer 12/17 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously 11/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Finished fourth or better last time out
10/17 – Had raced within last 4 weeks 8/17 – Rated between 130-136
4/17 – Won by English-based trainer 3/17 – Ran at Navan last time out 3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 20/1
Only two horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)