BET365 GOLD CUP
Andy Newton with the trends for the Sandown classic
The end of April sees the curtain down on another jumps season and it’s the bet365 Gold Cup meeting at Sandown, run on Saturday the 24th, that brings the hedge-hopping action to a close.
Like all the big races in April last year, this was another that was lost to Covid, with the last winner in 2019 being the Alan King-trained 7-year-old Talkischeap.
Run over a trip of 3m5f, it’s another contest for the stayers, while the older readers out there will still probably call the race ‘The Whitbread’, who sponsored the contest from 1957 until 2001.
It’s had various sponsors since, but leading bookmaker bet365 are starting to build up a strong recognition with the race now, having backed it since 2008.
Anyway, being a competitive staying handicap chase with a lot of history, it’s another race with plenty of trends to get stuck into.
Let’s take a look at some of the key stats:
Recent Run – With ALL of the last seventeen winners having raced in the last 63 days then this is certainly a good stating point when we know the final runners. This trend can also be taken a bit further with 10 of the last 17 winners having raced in the last 25 days. Only three of the last 17 winners won their last race, so don’t be too hung up looking for a recent winner, while 9 of the last 17 also finished unplaced in their most recent outing.
Weight – Another big trend here to help whittle down the runners as 16 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight, with 14 of the last 17 having 11st or less on their backs. Since 2007, we’ve only had two winners that won with 11st or more. If we go back a bit further in time then 24 of the last 29 winners (83%) carried less than 11st, while 5 of the last 17 winners took the prize with just 10st – so, even though it doesn’t always apply to these staying races, it’s clear here that those towards the bottom of the handicap have fared better.
Age – The most recent winner in 2019 – Talkischeap – was a 7 year-old and 50% of the last six winners have been aged 7. Also Alan King’s runner further backed up the trend that’s seen 13 of the last 17 winners aged 9 or younger. Having said that, we have seen three 11 year-olds – Monkerhostin (2008), Church Island (2010) and Tidal Bay (2012) – take the prize. However, 76% of the last 17 winners fitted into the age bracket between 7-9 year-olds and 6 of the last 17 winners were 8 year-olds. At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve had just one 6 yearold winner (Bounce Back, 2002) since 1959.
Favourites and Betting – Another huge trend here in recent times has seen this race being a graveyard contest for the favourites – the last winning market leader was in 2000 (Beau). Backed up again in 2019 with the jolly – West Approach – only managing fifth. However, we generally don’t have to look too far away from the favourite to find the winner. The 2019 hero was sent off the 7/1 joint second favourite, while 12 of the last 17 winners returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting and 10 of those came from the top seven in the market.
Trip – It’s no shock that 14 of the last 17 winners of this staying handicap have won previously over at least 3m, but it’s still something to mention in case there are any new kids on the block trying 3m+ for the first time.
Trainers – As already mentioned the Alan King team took this race when it was last run in 2019, but other yards to have on your radar have to be Paul Nicholls, who has four successes to his name – the most recent being in 2015. Nicky Henderson, Peter Bowen, Neil Mulholland and Philip Hobbs are other stables that have got their name on the winners’ hall of fame in recent years.
Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners
2020 – No Race
2019 – TALKISCHEAP (7/1)
2018 – STEP BACK (7/1)
2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1) 2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1) 2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1) 2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1) 2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1) 2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1) 2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)
Bet365 Gold Cup Betting Trends and Stats
17/17 – Had raced in the last 63 days 16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight 14/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further 13/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 - Returned 14/1 or shorter
10/17 – Had raced in the last 25 days 10/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher 10/17 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
9/17 – Finished 4th or worse last time 5/17 – Won with 10st in weight
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse 2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen 0/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 14/1
Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts
The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959 24 of the last 29 (83%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 17 runnings (35%)
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times