OAKS Trends
Andy Newton has important clues to unlock the riddle
We are now another month closer to things getting back to normal and hopefully it won’t be long until we see the crowds back in full force at the tracks.
Unfortunately, that probably won’t be in time for this month’s two great meetings – the Epsom Derby festival and Royal Ascot.
We can look forward to a bundle of top Group races at Ascot, but before the five-day Royal meeting we’ve got the third and fourth of the English Classics to take in and that’s where I’m going to focus my attention.
Epsom Oaks – The fillies’ Classic this year will be held on Friday June 4 and the big question is: will it be another Aidan O’Brien masterclass? In 2020, we saw his talented Love win the race and that was O’Brien’s eighth success in this fillies Classic. However, despite that impressive tally – did you know he’s still some way off the haul of trainer Robert Robson, who won 13 Epsom Oaks prices in the 1800’s?
So, what are the trends saying ahead of the 2021 Epsom Oaks?
Top Trainers – I’ve already touched on the excellent record of Aidan O’Brien – he’ll be looking for his ninth success in the race so, it goes without saying, anything he runs should always be noted. The Ballydoyle maestro is often mob-handed, but whichever horse jockey Ryan Moore decides to ride is always given the most attention in the betting. Moore has ridden two of O’Brien’s last five Oaks winners, while last year O’Brien had three of the eight runners and a 1-2 in the race too. However, don’t always discount O’Brien’s bigger-priced runners – he’s had a
50/1 and 20/1 winners in the last nine years.
Of the rest, with two wins in the last 13 runnings, the Ralph Beckett yard are also always worth a second look if they run anything, while the John Gosden camp have won three of the last seven runnings.
Fitness First – One of the main stats to take into the race is that ALL of the last 19 winners had run in the last five weeks, so having a recent run is always something to look for. Plus, with 16 of the last 19 Epsom Oaks winners having finished in the top two last time out then not only having had a recent run, but a ‘good’ recent run is a must-have.
Draw Advantage - With the Epsom Oaks run over 1m4f, many will feel the draw won’t be that important. However, if the stats are anything to go by, it’s still worth checking which stall your Derby fancy has. Why? Well, 12 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 5 or higher. Last year’s winner – Love – gave this trend another boost coming from stall 5. While 16 of the last 19 horses from stall 1 have also been unplaced. Mind you, don’t discount horses from stall 2 as seven of the last 19 (37%) have been placed.
Other Trends To Note – Having winning form over at least 1m2f in the past is something else to look for - 12 of the last 19 winners ticked this stat - while in terms of the market leaders it seems to be a race favourites have done well in and punters get right more often than not. 32% of the last 19 favourites have won – which is not a bad return, while 12 of the last 19 (63%) jollies have finished in the frame.
Eleven of the last 19 (58%) Epsom Oaks winners won last time out, while even though many feel the 1,000 Guineas is a good guide, we’ve only seen Love (2020), Minding (2016) and Kazzia (2002) in recent times land both races – in fact, just five of the last 19 Oaks winners ran in that earlier Newmarket Classic.
Plenty to get stuck into and hopefully these trends will help once we know the final runners – but with the O’Brien yard having already won the 1,000 Guineas, then Oaks win number nine looks very much on the cards this year.
Recent Epsom Oaks Winners
2020 – Love (11/10 fav)
2019 – Anapurna (8/1)
2018 – Forever Together (7/1) 2017 – Enable (6/1)
2016 – Minding (10/11 fav) 2015 – Qualify (50/1)
2014 – Taghrooda (5/1)
2013 – Talent (20/1)
2012 - Was (20/1)
2011 – Dancing Rain (20/1) 2010 – Snow Fairy (9/1)
2009 – Sariska (9/4 fav) 2008 – Look Here (33/1)
2007 – Light Shift (13/2) 2006 – Alexandrova (9/4 fav) 2005 – Eswarah (11/4 jfav) 2004 – Ouija Board (7/2) 2003 – Casual Look (10/1) 2002 – Kazzia (10/3 fav)
Epsom Oaks Betting Trends
19/19 – Ran within the last 5 weeks 16/19 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
16/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out 12/19 – Won over at least 1m2f previously 12/19 – Won from stall 5 or higher
12/19 – Favourites that were placed 11/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Won by the favourite (one joint) 6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
6/19 – Irish-trained winners
5/19 – Returned a double-figure price 5/19 – Ran in the English 1,000
Guineas
3/19 – Trained by John Gosden
3/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/19 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/19 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/19 – Had run at the course before
Seven of the last 14 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race eight times
Trainer John Gosden has won three of the last 7 runnings.
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 11/1
Love (2020), Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 19 runnings