Paul jacobs
Top tipster offers his value-formoney bets for June
As we all know the sixth month of the year is all about two meetings, Epsom and Royal Ascot, with the only bad taste left in the mouth being the admittance prices being charged for the latter event which means that the ordinary person in the street has little or no chance of visiting Berkshire later in the month.
Of course Ascot has taken a big hit with the pandemic but this is going from the sublime to the bloody ridiculous and confirms that the sport, not from an ownership point of view, but merely from a spectator angle, has a huge class bias. When the hell are they going to learn!?!
So far this year the Classic trials have been interesting, but not as informative as most punters and pundits would have liked, but that in turn makes both mile and a half contests very open and offers a bundle of each-way value.
Let’s start with the Derby and as per usual Aidan O’Brien has a major part to play. Bolshoi Ballet has won both the big Irish trials at Leopardstown, the Ballysax and Derrinstown Stakes.
On each occasion this beautifullybred son of Galileo has travelled very powerfully, quickened up well and seen out the mile and a quarter well. Based on breeding, he has every chance of getting home over this extra two furlongs especially when you consider that the dam (Anna Edes) has produced the likes of Southern France, Palm Beach and Martin Chuzzlewit.
Still, it is not a given, BUT if he gets a good slot from the start, that high cruising speed and turn of speed looks sure to see him heavily involved down the home stretch and I certainly prefer him to stable mate and Dante third
High Definition. The last named took an eternity to get going at York and although he didn’t have the kitchen sink thrown at him he still looked very green. In his favour this tall colt looked as though he needed the run both physically and mentally and O’Brien was very complimentary following that opening salvo. Mind you, Aidan rarely says anything bad about his horses!
Both of these regally bred colts have been found in the market place now and although the pair have the potential to take another big step forward there are plenty of each-way alternatives in the betting book.
We all know about the fairy story about John Leeper and I am lucky enough to be on him at 25/1. He has faultless blood lines, shaped with huge promise in winning the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket, despite everything conspiring against him, and has huge potential. I am just a bit worried that this may well come a couple of months too early for him.
The one factor I haven’t mentioned yet, despite the fact that the course does dry up quickly, is the rain and if we do get some give in the ground I wouldn’t rule out Taipan closing the Leopardstown gap on Bolshoi Ballet. He has been crying out for 12 furlongs with dig and should the rain continue he looks a massive player.
But on something like good to soft ground – the most likely scenario – the other bet I will be having to add to my ante-post portfolio is an each-way play on the Dee Stakes winner EL DRAMA. Roger Varian’s charge still looked in need of the experience when landing the Chester contest by a length from Maximal and has no question marks about seeing out the extra yardage here. What I liked about that performance was that he was fairly free early on, but really knuckled down when asked for his effort down the home straight to win readily.
The one question mark is that his owner thinks he would be better suited
to the shorter trip of the French Derby because of his tendency to travel strongly which means I will be backing him for both events, Epsom and Chantilly, for the former when the bookmakers go non-runner, no bet.
It also means we can have a second string to our outsiders bow in the form of Chester Vase runner-up SANDHURST. At this stage nobody knows how Aidan will split up his threeyear-old colts’ clan between Epsom and the Curragh, but if this strong staying son of yes you’ve guessed it, Galileo, turns up at the Surrey track, he will no doubt be ridden very positively, tactics that have worked well in recent renewals for the Ballydoyle yard.
As far as the Oaks is concerned, Santa Barbara remains the talking filly from Ballydoyle and this extra half mile will suit her so much better than the Rowley Mile. However, she does have a tendency to throw her head to one side and at 15/8 I would be quite happy to see her win without a farthing on her.
The wager for me has to be TEONA despite her defeat in the Musidora Stakes at York. Everything went against her that day, the slow pace, seeing plenty of daylight and her lack of experience. However, it was the way she made up her ground from the three furlong pole that really caught my eye.
She had every chance at the distance, but her early pulling antics not surprisingly caught up with her and Andrea Atzeni allowed her to coast home in her own time once it was apparent her chance of winning this famous trial had gone west. She was still only beaten a shade over four lengths by the more experienced Snowfall who raced in very relaxed fashion and totally had the run of the race and I strongly fancy our filly to reverse that form at Epsom.
And so on to Royal Ascot, and my biggest play of the meeting is likely to come in the Commonwealth Cup with the likely favourite, the Wesley Ward trained Campanelle, making the betting list for the rest of the entry at around the 4/1 marker, sure to start much shorter on the day.
I have already had a meaty each-way investment on the hugely underrated DILIGENT HARRY. Yes, all of his career runs have come on the sand, but Ascot is a track that tends to suit all-weather horses, and there seems little reason why he wouldn’t be able to transfer that form to turf and remember this will be just his fifth career start.
The way he mopped up the 103 rated Mighty Gurkha at Lingfield Park, merely pushed out, was an immense performance and this lovely physical specimen has enormous physical scope to take another big step forward here.
My other likely bets at the Royal meeting will be ART POWER (eachway) in the Golden Jubilee Stakes as long as the ground isn’t fast, SAGAMIYRA (Duke of Cambridge Stakes) and ILARAB in the Hardwicke Stakes granted some give in the ground. The last named is progressing at a real rate of knots and could easily take the step up to group company in his stride as long as he gets his preferred dig in the ground.