Northumberland
Andy Newton with the trends for Newcastle’s Northumberland Plate
Towards the end of this month, and after all the hustle and bustle of the Derby and then Royal Ascot, it’s off to Newcastle racecourse as they stage one of their biggest race days of the season, with the Northumberland Plate the feature race.
Run over two miles, the Northumberland Plate is one of the richest staying handicaps in the world and to the older readers will still be known as the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’.
First first run in 1833, there is plenty of history attached to the race and being run over 2 miles can often attract horses trained by National
Hunt stables – backed up Alan King (2019), Jonjo O’Neill (2013) and Donald McCain (2010 and 2012) winning the prize in recent years.
Last year we saw the Hugo Palmertrained Caravan Of Hope win the race – this 4 year-old became the fourth winning favourite since 2012 to reward punters – while, don’t forget, this race is now run on Newcastle’s AW track.
Let’s take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and statistics to look out for when going through the race– this year run on Saturday June 26.
WEIGHT – 11 of the last 19 winners have carried 8-12 or less, while since 1985 we’ve only seen four horses carry 9-6 or more to victory. The 2021 winner, Caravan Of Hope, won with just 8-5, but 4 of the last six winners have carried between 9st 1lbs and 9st 5lbs.
FORM – A massive 18 of the last 19 winners finished fifth or better last time out, while if you want to take this trend a bit further then 15 of the last 19 successful horses were placed in the top three in their most recent race.
TRIP – With this race being run over 2m, then proven stamina is key. 18 of the last 19 winners had previously won over at least 1m4f, but it goes without saying, look for winning form over
1m6f to 2m too and even better if they’ve performed well on the AW track at Newcastle too. 15 of the last 19 winners had won over at least 1m6f on the flat.
AGE – 16 of the last 19 winners were aged 6 or younger and no horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985! During that time, we’ve had just three winners aged 3 and three aged 8; the bulk of winners have been aged between 4 and 7.
DRAW – 16 of the last 19 winners came from stall 14 or lower, Yes, that still leaves us with 14 horses, but that is quite a significant trend and there is likely to be a big field so it will help us knock a few out.
PRICE – Up until recently the favourites didn’t have a great record in the race. However, this trend is turning now with four winning market leaders since 2012. With that we’ve now had 10 of the last 19 winners return at doublefigure odds and the average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 12.5/1.
STABLES – The Roger Charlton yard have won two of the last six renewals so anything they run should be noted, while Donald McCain has been responsible for winners in 2010 and 2012. Away from those yards it’s been an array of stables to land the prize in recent years, including Hugo Palmer, Alan King, James Fanshawe,
Good Luck!
Past Northumberland Plate Winners
2020 – Caravan Of Hope (9/2 fav) 2019 – Who Dares Wins (12/1) 2018 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 - Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav) 2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)
Key Northumberland Plate Trends
18/19 - Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
18/19 – Finished fifth or better last time 16/19 – Came from stall 14 or lower 16/19 – Aged 6 or younger
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
15/19 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/19 – Returned a double-figure price 8/19 – Had at least 2 turf Flat runs already that season
7/19 – Won by a National Hunt yard 5/19 – Won their previous race
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 13 winners)
3/19 – Had won on the Flat at Newcastle before
2/19 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/19 – Trained by Roger Charlton
(2 of last 6)
1/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 12.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate has been staged on the All
Weather track at Newcastle
Other Northumberland Plate Facts
No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 15 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 9
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001