PAUL FERGUSON
Top tipsters’s guide to July’s big races
Aidan O’Brien won Sandown’s Eclipse Stakes on five occasions between 2000 and 2011, and St Mark’s Basilica is fancied to provide him with a sixth win in the Group 1, following a nine-year hiatus. The betting is currently headed by Dubai Sheema Classic winner Mishriff, but we have yet to see him or stablemate Lord North in domestic action this year, and either might struggle to concede the age-allowance (10lbs) to the three-year-old.
St Mark’s Basilica, the winner of the Dewhurst Stakes on his final start at two, has won both the French Guineas and the French Derby so far this season, showing a good blend of speed and stamina to provide O’Brien with a first win in the Prix du Jockey Club last time. O’Brien’s first three Eclipse winners were all aged three, the first being Giant’s Causeway in 2000. All three boasted a similar profile to St Mark’s Basilica, in that they were clearly blessed with plenty of natural pace, and provided that the ground isn’t too quick, he is fancied to land the feature prize on July 3. The ground is the only real concern for the Siyouni colt, as he has yet to encounter quick ground and is unbeaten in four starts on soft. Currently a best-price
4-1 (SkyBet and Hills) that could well come under some pressure if we get a wet end to June.
On the same day up at Haydock, the
Lancashire Oaks and Old Newton Cup take centre stage. However, the 1m6f handicap for three-year-olds on the same day is a race which often interests me and Dhushan looks a likely contender, on the back of his impressive victory in Musselburgh’s
Edinburgh Cup in early-June. An easy winner of a novice event at Haydock the time before, he was wound-up down the outside and readily defied an opening mark of 85 for William
Haggas. Upped 7lbs by the assessor, the Sea The Stars colt should relish an extra couple of furlongs and looks highly progressive. The stable won this race last year with Favorite Moon (beat recent Gold Cup winner Subjectivist by a length) and with Royal Ascot coming too soon after his foray to Scotland, it appeals as the obvious next target, possibly en route to the Melrose at York. Wherever he goes next, I want Dhushan onside.
The following weekend, the feature handicap comes from York, in the shape of the John Smith’s Cup. This is bound to be highly-competitive, but Surrey Pride is certainly one for any shortlist, given the way he won over course-and-distance on reappearance. He impressed me when winning handicaps at Newbury and Chester last summer, after which his form tailed off somewhat, although it coincided with softening ground, and he bounced right back to form on his return. Having travelled well, he picked up nicely to win by 1¼-lengths, with Pivoine (won next time) back in fourth. While a lot more will be required, Joseph Tuite’s four-year-old looks capable of going well in a big handicap at some stage, and given that he is a course-and-distance winner, this seems the logical next port of call. Currently a 16-1 shot with Unibet, he would be worth an each-way interest if turning up under the right conditions.
From Surrey (horse, not county) to Sussex (Stakes, and county), as the Qatar Goodwood Festival gets underway on Tuesday July 27. Day two could see a mouth-watering clash between Queen Anne winner Palace Pier and the three-year-old Poetic Flare. The former is undoubtedly the best ‘older’ miler in training, but the division is fairly thin on the ground at present and the concession of 8lbs (age allowance) might prove too much of an ask. Jim Bolger’s Dawn Approach colt has already run five times this season, and while there is a concern that those races might catch up with him at some point, he looks a tough sort who produced a career-best when winning the St James’s Palace Stakes in breathtaking fashion last time. The winner of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, he finished sixth behind St Mark’s Basilica in France and runner-up in the Irish equivalent. The ground was soft at both Longchamp and the Curragh, and he relished the quick ground when showing a rare turn of speed at Ascot.
With Palace Pier being quite a keengoing sort, he might well be able to take a lead from him, then attack late coming down the hill, in what can often be the most exciting mile race of the season. Available at 5-1 during Ascot week, he is now a 5-2 shot, but I would still be prepared to take on the shortpriced favourite with him, should they clash.
The feature race on the following day’s card is the Group 1 Nassau
Stakes, where another Royal Ascot winner could next be seen. Love showed a fantastic attitude to win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes on her belated reappearance, and while a return to Ascot for the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (July 24) is one option, taking on the girls over 10furlongs would be another, and she would be difficult to oppose if bidding to provide Aidan O’Brien with a fifth Nassau Stakes since 2007. Interestingly, all four of his previous winners
“the John Smith’s Cup is bound to be highly competitive, but Surrey Pride is certainly one for any shortlist ”
were three-year-olds, but last year’s Guineas-Oaks heroine would certainly set the standard if running here and would be tough to beat.
Later the same evening, the Galway Hurdle takes place and I’m looking forward to seeing what rating the Irish handicapper gives to Copperless. Olly Murphy’s lightly-raced six-year-old was running away with a handicap at Aintree’s Grand National meeting when falling two out, but gained compensation with a decisive win in the Swinton at Haydock. Upped 15lbs (126 to 141) for that, the hope is that the Irish handicapper lets him in off a slightly lower mark, but if he gets decent ground, I would be more than hopeful that he would run a very big race, even if handed the same mark. The Aintree form is working out, with Bold Enough (3rd) winning twice over fences since, while the runner-up Camprond won a weak race at Market Rasen after finishing third behind Copperless in the Swinton. Fifth at Haydock, Scarlet Dragon shaped well at Royal Ascot, while eighth home Ballinsker won subsequently at Southwell. Eleventh home Shanroe added further weight to that piece of form when winning a valuable handicap on the Flat at the Curragh, while the 12th home Celestial Force won a small race at Newton Abbot recently. Hooper, who he beat in a maiden hurdle last October, has also been giving his form a boost by winning at Stratford in June (has won five times in total since their meeting) so there is plenty of substance to his form throughout. Murphy saddled Hunters Call to finish fourth last year and granted luck in running (often needed in this race), Copperless looks a live candidate to take on the Irish in their backyard.
Elsewhere at Galway, look out for Run For Oscar who I believe is wellhandicapped and looked in need of the run on his recent return at Down Royal. Very weak in the market (4-1 out to 11s) he tired late on, and it could be that Cathal Byrnes has something slightly bigger in mind for his former smart bumper horse. A winner at the third time of asking in that sphere, he had earlier finished in front of Ajero in a bumper at Thurles and he is now rated 139 after four wins during his first season with Kim Bailey. After winning a maiden on the Flat, he split You Raised Me Up (rated 136 in Ireland) and Belfast Banter (winner of the County Hurdle and the Grade 1 Top Novices’ Hurdle) in a maiden hurdle at Listowel. Again, he got off the mark at the third attempt, beating Make Good, who won his next two starts, latterly in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham last December. All things considered, his form looks very strong and a mark of 125 might well underestimate Run For Oscar, who could be aimed at one of the several handicap hurdles during Galway week. Stick him in the tracker.
“GOODWOOD OFFERS a mouth-watering clash between Palace Pier and the three-year-old Poetic Flare ”