PHOENIX STAKES
Andy Newton with the trends for the Curragh sprint
The Group One Phoenix Stakes, which is run at the Curragh racecourse, is a two-year-old contest that gives us a chance to see some of the potential stars of the future strutting their stuff – this year’s renewal will be run on Sunday,
August 8.
Staged over 6f, it’s no real shock that the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp have dominated this race in recent times, winning the prize a remarkable 16 times!
However, their stranglehold on the race has wavered slightly in recent years and they have now gone three renewals without success - their last being in 2017.
It would, of course, be foolish to rule out any of their runners this year and they are sure to be mob-handed again.
Let’s take a look at some of the other main trends that have built up in recent years.
Trip - With ALL of the last 19 winners having previously won over 6f or 7f, this is a key trend to have onside. Yes, it will probably apply to most of the runners, but be sure to double check just in case one of the fancied runners is yet to record a victory over these trips.
Group Class - Having tasted Group company is another positive, with 18 of the last 19 winners having raced at Group level in the past. Again, a stat that will be ticked for a lot of the entries, but with 12 of the last 19 winners having also won a Group 2 or 3 contest, this should hopefully help whittle down the runners a bit.
Stable - I’ve already mentioned the excellent form of the Aidan O’Brien yard. It goes without saying anything they run will be popular – especially the one Ryan Moore rides. No other trainer has really dominated the race, but with 18 of the last 19 winners Irish-based yards, it’s rare that his prize leaves Ireland.
Recent Run - Heading here in good form is another thing to look for – 17 of the last 19 winners finished in the first two last time out, while 14 of the last 19 had won at least twice before. Also note horses that have had three or more previous runs that season with 13 of the last 19 fitting that trends.
Favourites - We’ve seen three winning market leaders in the last five runnings, while 37% (7 from 19) of the last 19 favourites have also been successful. Also, if the jolly doesn’t win, it’s often placed, with 14 of the last 19 hitting the frame (74%).
Price - The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 6/1, so despite having a 33/1 winner in 2011 (La Collina), the winners have mainly come from those at the head of the market. 14 of the last 19 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting too – backed up with ALL of the last six winners ticking that trend.
Foaled - Being a two-year-old race, these youngsters can improve rapidly during this early part of their careers. Therefore, it’s worth checking their foaled date as even though it’s only a few months difference in age it can make all the difference. Ten of the last 19 winners were foaled in either March or April, so these are the two months to look out for.
Track - With 58% of the last 19 winners racing at the Curragh last time out, then this track experience has been a plus for recent winners. But also note horses that ran at Leopardstown in their last outing, with 3 of the last 19 getting a thumbs up here – meaning 14 of the last 19 winners (74%) were last seen at one of these two tracks.
Overall, it’s a race those at the front of the betting have done well in, while despite three years without a win, it’s hard to ignore any of the likely Aidan O’Brien runners so, it will be a brave punter that says he can’t make another of his two-year-olds rise to land the Phoenix Stakes.
Recent Phoenix Stakes Winners
2020 - Lucky Vega (4/1)
2019 – Siskin (10/11 fav)
2018 – Advertise (11/10 fav) 2017 – Sioux Nation (2/1) 2016 – Caravaggio (1/8 fav) 2015 – Air Force Blue (9/4) 2014 – Dick Whittington (6/1) 2013 – Sudirman (4/1)
2012 – Pedro The Great (10/1)
2011 – La Collina (33/1)
2010 – Zoffany (3/1)
2009 – Alfred Nobel (5/4 fav)
2008 – Mastercraftsman (4/1)
2007 – Saoirse Abu (25/1)
2006 – Holy Roman Emperor (13/8 jfav)
2005 – George Washington (8/13 fav) 2004 – Damson (8/11 fav)
2003 – One Cool Cat (11/8)
2002 – Spartacus (16/1)
Phoenix Stakes Key Trends
19/19 – Had won over 6 or 7f before 18/19 – Had run in a Group race before
18/19 – Won by an Irish-based trainer 17/19 – Finished in the top two last time out
17/19 – Previous winners over 6f
14/19 – Had won at least two races before
14/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
13/19 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
12/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien 12/19 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 before
12/19 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
11/19 – Had won at the Curragh before 11/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time 10/19 – Won by either a March or
April foal
7/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Won by a March foal
4/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/19 – Ran Leopardstown last time The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 6/1