NUNTHORPE STAKES
Andy Newton assesses the hat-trick chances of Battaash
This month’s Group One Nunthorpe Stakes is another of the feature contests at the four-day York Ebor Festival – a race that some of the best sprinters on the planet often target.
Run over the minimum trip (5f) and staged this year on Friday, August 20, all eyes will once again be on the popular Charles Hills-trained Battaash, who has won the last two renewals.
If successful again, the 7-year-old Battaash, will join both Tag End and Sharpo, who have landed this prize three times each, but if lining up will also need to bounce back from a defeat in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June.
Let’s take a look at the main trends:
Recent Form - With 89% of the last 19 winners placed in the top five last time out, this is the first key trend to look for. Yes, a lot will tick this stat, but it should still knock a few out that are heading here on recovery missions.
Trip - It goes without saying having won previously over this 5f trip is another big trend. Again, 89% of the last 19 winners had past winning form over the minimum trip, but once the final runners are out, we might still find a few horses that are yet to win over 5f or perhaps stepping back in distance.
Draw - Being drawn a bit lower in recent years has been the call. 17 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 11 or lower, but with 75% of the last 12 winners coming from stalls 7 or higher then this suggests looking for horses between 7-11, which will give us five contenders (providing there are 11+ runners).
Track Experience - 15 of the last 19 Nunthorpe Stakes winners had run at York before. This works out at a 79% strike-rate so certainly something to look for when looking back at past form.
Previous Group Form - You sometimes get in-form Listed (or even handicap) horses stepping up in class to contest this top sprint. But with 13 of the last 19 winners being previous winners at Group level then it often pays to side with horses that are proven around this sort of level.
Favourites - It’s not been a bad race for the favourites, with 5 of the last 19 (26%) market leaders going in. With 14 of the last 19 jollies also finishing in the top four, then it’s not often the horse at the head of the market doesn’t get involved.
Age - It’s a race that since 2000, we’ve seen four 3-year-old winners and even a rare 2-year-old winner (Kingsgate Native, 2007), but since 2012 ALL of the winners have been aged between 4-7 years-old. While, if we go back to 1922, there has only been one winner aged older than 7!
Girl Power - Be sure to look out for fillies or mares in the race as a decent 60% of the last 10 Nunthorpe winners have been female. They will also get the fillies weight allowance in the race, so in a race run over just 5f and one that is often decided by a fine margin, this lighter burden can often be a big help.
Top Yards - We’ve had a fair mix of winning yards in recent times. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race twice, but those wins came back in 1999 (Stravinsky) and 2001 (Mozart). The Hills yard are another to look for, having won the last two runnings (Battaash), while Barry Hills also won the prize in 2005 (La Cucaracha). The final stable to note is Michael Dods – they popped up in 2015 and 2016 to win the race with their classy Mecca’s Angel.
Nunthorpe Stakes Betting Guide
17/19 – Finished in the top 5 last time 17/19 – Had won over 5f before
17/19 – Came from stall 11 or lower 16/19 – Had an official rating of 108 or more
15/19 – Had run at the course before 14/19 – Favourites to finish in top 4 13/19 – Were previous Group race winners
9/19 – Ran at Goodwood last time out (inc 8 of last 11)
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 - Won by the Hills yard (Charles/Barry)
3/19 – Placed horses from stall 1
(3rd in 2003 & 2012)
2/19 – Ran at Sandown last time out 2/19 – Trained by Michael Dods
9 of the last 12 winner drawn 7 or higher
6 of the last 10 winners were fillies/mares
The last 9 winners were aged between 4-7 years-old
Battaash (7/4) won the race in 2019 and 2020
Recent Nunthorpe Stakes Winners
2020 - Battaash (1/2 fav) 2019 - Battaash (7/4)
2018 - Alpha Delphini (40/1) 2017 - Marsha (8/1) 2016 - Mecca’s Angel (9/2) 2015 - Mecca’s Angel (15/2) 2014 - Sole Power (11/4 fav) 2013 - Jwala (40/1)
2012 - Ortensia (7/2 jfav) 2011 - Margot Did (20/1)