EBOR HANDICAP
Andy Newton tells why the bookies love the great York race
It’s hard to think that the summer is almost over! However, let’s not wish out lives away as we’ve still some decent action this month and several big summer meetings still to play out - including the four-day York Ebor Festival (Wednesday
August 18 - to Saturday 21st).
There are many standout races over the meeting - including the Nunthorpe Stakes, Juddmonte International,
Great Voltigeur Stakes and the Yorkshire Oaks, but the Ebor Handicap, run on Saturday August 21, has always been a great race for the trends lovers to get stuck into.
First run back in 1843, the Ebor is run over 1m6f and is currently the most valuable handicap Flat race in Europe. Therefore, with a lucrative prize haul on offer it’s no shock it attracts an ultra-competitive field, but it’s also a contest some key stats have held up well over the years.
So - what are the main trends?
Age Concern – We had a 7-year-old winner of the Ebor Handicap in 2015, but that was the oldest winner since Sea Pigeon in 1979! With 18 of the last 19 winners aged 6 or younger this is the clear age range to focus on, while in recent runnings it’s been the 5 and 6 year-olds that have held sway – winning 11 of the last 13 between them.
Draw Advantage – With the Ebor being run over 1m6f then at first glance you may feel the draw won’t come into play. However, the trends say differently! Horses that can get a good early position, and are not forced to travel wide around the home bend into the long York straight, have a big advantage. Yes, the 2019 winner – Mustajeer – defied this trend when winning from stall 2, but things got back to normal 12 months ago with Fujaira Prince winning from stall 12. In recent years a massive 15 of the last 19 winners came from a double-figure stall. This will allow us to hopefully rule out nine of the 20+ horses that are likely to run. This draw stat is further backed up as we’ve seen just two placed horses from stall one in the last 19 years, and 12 months ago the first four home also all started from a double-figure draw.
Trip Advisor – With the Ebor run over 1m6f, then having winning form over a distance of at least 1m4f+ is vital – a massive 16 of the last 19 winners getting a thumbs-up on this stat. This trend will apply to most of the runners, but it’s still something to be aware of if there are any fancied runners stepping up in trip.
Weight Watchers – Being a handicap, then weight carried is another likely factor. Yes, the last three winners carried 9st 8lbs, 9st, 5lbs and 9st, 9lbs, so there may be a turning point with this stat. But we’ve still seen a huge 17 of the last 19 winners carry 9st-5lbs or less – you should be able to put a line through a few horses based on this – in 2019, 7 of the 21 runners carried 9st
6lbs or more! However, do approach this trend with a tiny bit of caution with the last three winners carrying 9st 5lbs or more, while the last 9 winners all won carrying between 9st and 9st 9lbs.
Bookie v Punter – Who has come out on top? Well, the answer to this is easy! We’ve seen only two winning favourites since 1999 – while we also had a 100/1 winner pop up in 2006. Okay, 12 months ago Fujaira Prince was one of those two winning jollies, but overall, it’s still a graveyard race for the market leaders. Therefore, I think it’s safe to say this is a contest the bookmakers look forward to each season and have dominated in recent years. Oh, if you also like laying horses on the betting exchanges then you might be interested to know that 9 of the last 19 market leaders have NOT even made the frame (top four finish).
Fitness First – Having had a recent outing is another key trend. Horses that had three or more outings already that season have done best. 11 of the last 19 winners fit the bill here, while 10 of the last 19 winners had previous course experience at York – another trend the 2020 winner ticked having run second at York the previous season. Plus, with a 10 of the last 19 winners having run at either Goodwood or Ascot last time out this is another line of form to check.
Stable Diet - Which are the best stables to look for? Trainer John Gosden won the Ebor Handicap for the first time in 2018 and is sure to have some decent chances, but the Sir Michael Stoute is the UK-based stable with the best record. Okay, they’ve not won the prize since 1996, but the Stoute camp have recorded three wins in the Ebor
between 1980 and 1996 – so maybe they are due another! Roger Varian won the prize in 2020, while it’s a race that the yards more famed for their jumpers have targeted.
Luck Of The Irish - Finally, it’s also a race some of the leading Irish yards tend to target. Since 2009 we’ve had winners for Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Johnny Murtagh and Tony Martin and this was backed up in 2019 with the Ger Lyons-trained Mustajeer landing the prize.
Key Ebor Handicap Trends
18/19 – Aged 6 or younger
17/19 – Carried 9-5 or less
16/19 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/19 – Won from a double-figure stall 13/19 – Winning Distance - 1 length or less 12/19 – Carried 9-1 or less
12/19 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old 11/19 – Had 3 or more runs that season 10/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Had run at York before
6/19 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/19 – Won last time out
5/19 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 11)
4/19 – Ran at Goodwood last time out 3/19 – Ran at Galway last time out
2/19 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/19 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
2/19 – Winning favourites
Just two winning favourites since 1999 Since 1980 only one winner aged 7 or older
6 of the last 7 winners were aged 5 or 6 Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1980, 1991 & 1996
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 20/1
Recent Sky Bet Ebor Winners
2020 – Fujaira Prince (11/2) 2019 – Mustajeer (16/1)
2018 – Muntahaa (11/1)
2017 – Nakeeta (12/1)
2016 – Heartbreak City (15/2) 2015 – Litigant (33/1)
2014 – Mutual Regard (20/1) 2013 – Tiger Cliff (5/1)
2012 – Willing Foe (12/1)
2011 – Moyenne Corniche (25/1) 2010 – Dirar (14/1)
2009 – Sesenta (25/1)
2008 – All The Good (25/1) 2007 – Purple Moon (7/2 fav) 2006 – Mudawin (100/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (11/1) 2004 – Mephisto (6/1)
2003 – Saint Alebe (20/1)
2002 – Hugs Dancer (25/1)