Cambridgeshre
Andy Newton with key clues for Newmarket’s cavalry charge
As we hurtle towards the end of September, and into October, the focus switches back to Newmarket. First up this month for track known as ‘HQ’ is the three-day Cambridgeshire Meeting, that runs from Thursday 23rd to Saturday 25th of September.
We’ve an array of decent races to enjoy over the three days, including the Royal Lodge, Cheveley Park and Middle Park Stakes, but the ultra-competitive Cambridgeshire Handicap is the main betting heat with a big field of 20+ runners entered.
First run in 1839, this 1m1f handicap is a race with bundles of history attached to it and, therefore, plenty of key trends too.
Let’s take a look at the main stats to have onside once we know the final runners.
Age - With ALL of the last 19 Cambridgeshire winners aged 6 or younger, this is the key age trend. The last horse to win aged 7+ was Rambo’s Hall in 1992. At the other end of the age scale, we have seen four 3 yearold winners since 2012, so we can’t discount the younger horses in the race. That said, with 14 of the last 19 successful horses aged between 4-6 years-old this range has held sway in recent times. Backed up again 12 months ago with the 4 year-old Majestic Dawn winning.
Winning Form - 16 of the last 19 winners had won three of more times before, so this is another trend to certainly look for - suggesting that we need to look for horses that have shown an appetite for winning but could also be a bit unexposed from the handicapper.
Weight - Last year’s winner carried just 8st 8lbs to victory, while the runner-up had a pound less and the fourth only 8st 3lbs. However, with 16 of the last 19 winners carrying 9st 5lbs or less then this seems to be a nice weight cut-off point. Plus, with 13 of the last 19 winners rated between 90100 this is another trend that links into the weight stats. The first two home again in 2020 were rated 94 and 98. While, if you want to take this a bit further, it might pay to note that 11 of the last 19 winners actually carried 8st 12lbs or less.
Draw - Yes, with 25+ runners there are always going to be more horses from a double-figure draw anyway. With that in mind, it’s no real shock to see that 15 of the last 19 winners hailed from a double-figure draw, but this is still something to look for. In fact, the first eleven horses last year ALL came from stalls 10 or higher!
Favourites - Considering the competitive nature of the race, in the last 19 runnings we’ve still seen 21% of favourites win (4 from 19). That said, the market leaders do tend to win or bomb out as 14 of the last 19 (74%) jollies didn’t even place.
Trip - Being run over one of the unique trips of 1m1f - really, we need to look for horses that are proven to have stayed a tiny bit further. 14 of the last 19 winners had won previously over 1m2f.
Recent Form/Runs - With 13 of the last (68%) winners having finished fifth or better in their last race, then horses coming here in-form have done well. Three of the last 19 winners won their most recent outing, plus with 12 of the last 19 winners having had at least five runs that season this is another trend to consider. The final stat in this category is that 5 of the last 19 (26%) winners raced at Newbury last time out.
Price - It’s also been a race that’s thrown up plenty of big-priced winners in recent years. In 2004 we saw a 100/1 winner, while more recently a 50/1 winner in 2017 and 12 months ago Majestic Dawn took the honours at 40/1. The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is also around 21/1!
Trainer - Paul and Oliver Cole won the race in 2020, but the standout yards of late have been John Gosden and Marcus Tregoning. The Gosden camp have won this race five times in the past, with the first of those coming in 1994, while in the last 19 years they’ve had four winners and two in the last three - Frankie Dettori rode them both! It’s also worth respecting the Marcus Tregoning stable as they’ve landed two of the last nine renewals, but it’s worth noting this was with the same horse - Bronze Angel.
Overall, plenty of key stats and history to have on your side once we know the final runners. But if trainer John Gosden has a Frankie Dettori
ridden 4-6 year-old that has a doublefigure draw and 9st 5lbs or less in weight, then we should stand up and take notice!
Good luck!
Recent Cambridgeshire Handicap Winners
2020 - Majestic Dawn (40/1) 2019 – Lord North (9/2 fav) 2018 – Wissahickon (11/1)
2017 – Dolphin Vista (50/1) 2016 – Spark Plug (12/1)
2015 – Third Time Lucky (14/1) 2014 – Bronze Angel (14/1) 2013 – Educate (8/1 fav)
2012 – Bronze Angel (9/1)
2011 – Prince of Johanne (40/1) 2010 – Credit Swap (14/1) 2009 – Supaseus (16/1)
2008 – Tazeez (25/1)
2007 – Pipedreamer (5/1 fav) 2006 – Formal Decree (9/1) 2005 – Blue Monday (5/1 fav) 2004 – Spanish Don (100/1) 2003 – Chivalry (14/1)
2002 – Beauchamp Pilot (14/1)
Cambridgeshire Handicap Trends
19/19 – Aged 6 or younger
16/19 – Won 3 or more times in their career
16/19 – Carried 9-5 or less
15/19 – Won from a double-figure stall 14/19 – Aged between 4 and 6 14/19 – Unplaced favourites
14/19 – Had won over 1m2f before 13/19 – Finished 5th or better last time 13/19 – Rated between 90-100
13/19 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
12/19 – Had 5 or more runs that season 11/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/19 – Ran at Newbury last time out 4/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Trained by John Gosden
3/19 – Won their last race
2/19 - Trained by Marcus Tregoning 2/19 - Ridden by Frankie Dettori
13 of the last 15 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 21/1