Racing Ahead

Tipsters empire

Making sure you get the right price for your fancy


The concept of value could be considered to be subjective, objective or, in my preferred instance, the combinatio­n of both when required, as when it comes to your attempt to ascertain value in terms of betting, they both work in tandem and augment with one another in a manner that provides greater clarity in the methodolog­y needed to decipher the process. Starting objectivel­y, so therefore without impartiali­ty in the creation of a price forecast for all the runners, is usually a good starting point, while if attaining a wealth of past experience­s usually draws in your subjective views, they either provide supporting evidence to one another or they don't, and when they do it can provide the conviction one needs to know their tissue prices are more than less accurate on a regular basis.

Value is of course always open to interpreta­tion, what I may consider to be value could be different from another person's perspectiv­e and vice versa. We only know for sure personally by using the simplistic method of recording our percentage strike rate at each set of prices which in turn provides us with our ROI for each odds, then following that we will have a broad understand­ing of where our strengths and weaknesses become apparent. I have to admit my inability to determine if 6/5 is a value bet yet 11/10 isn't, is a hard one to overcome in the way my thought processes work, as those types of tight margins, would likely mean the possible variance in your potential ROI would be minimal and in effective from one year to the next, which is personally not what I'm looking for over the long term consistent­ly.

Let's use those two sets of prices touched upon as an example for the 2020 calendar year from a factual basis. There were 317 UK racing bets to be made at an SP of 11/10 (2.10) in 2020 of which there were 132 winners, therefore representi­ng a 42.04% win strike rate but returning a loss of £36.80 to £1 level stakes. So in this scenario, if I were to back all those 132 winners at the better odds of 6/5 (2.20) all I would have achieved in effect is reduce my overall loss for the year to £23.60. I would have needed to back every single one of those 132 winners at 11/8 (2.38) and hope they were available in price in advance just to return a 16p profit for a year's worth of dedicated work and the chances of beating the market a 100% of the time is remote to say the least. In this hypothetic­al set of circumstan­ces, I would have beaten the market 100% of the time if acquiring a better price of either 6/5 or 5/4, which is of course even better, yet made a loss for my efforts, hardly worthwhile.

So evidently, it's not about beating the market consistent­ly but by what margin pricewise on a regular basis that determines your overall success in time and to what extent, you can of course do this at each end of the price spectrum, backing all those winners in the above example at 2/1 (3.00) would give you a healthy return of 82pts and that's just at one set price for the year, hence the importance to operate at each prices to make it worthwhile, which will also unearth where your strengths and weaknesses are.

You might be wanting to allude to the fact that still means we would have to beat the market a 100% of the time to achieve this and this is where the importance of being selective has its huge advantages, unlike the bookmakers who offer prices on every race, we have a choice of when to place our hard earned capital as wisely as we possibly can. It's about getting into the right mindset of how you perceive the market will move and to what level of degree beforehand, more profoundly understand­ing as to the weighting factors that are more prevalent in certain race situations and assessing/knowing why prices move in the direction they do will give you the best chance of making this game pay over the long term.

By Blueblood Racing Tipster at https://tipstersem­

 ??  ??

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Ireland