L’homme presse will be up for the fight
Ben Morgan takes a look at Day Two’s races at Aintree
Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle
The Coral Cup is often a good indicator as to how this race will pan out as some of the eye catchers from Cheltenham are more than likely to line up here. Therefore it makes my job pretty difficult this year as there weren’t many eye catchers at all mainly due to the fact you couldn’t see anything past the first three due to the rain.
One horse who you just had to take out of the race was Camprond who ran a mighty race on ground he had no reason to enjoy. You feel if it was good ground then he surely would have won as he is a much better horse on a sounder surface. With that in mind I think he would be a short price favourite here and although he has obvious claims I’d be inclined to look for more value.
Horses such as Unexpected Party and Garry Clermont were severely inconvenienced by the ground and would have much better chances here. The latter caught my eye in the parade ring that day as he looked as fit as a flea and I had no doubt that that race had been the plan for quite some time. Compensation may await here.
Dans Le Vent is another who always tends to run his race in these events but had no opportunity to do so at Cheltenham due to the rain. He ran a big race here last year and I wouldn’t put anyone off if they did fancy him to go well here.
Christopher Wood is a hardy little horse and the change of stable seems to have rejuvenated him no end. Venetia Williams is enjoying a fine season and it would be no surprise if she got this horse's head in front on a big day. He finished a gallant 6th in Coral Cup and if none the worse for that effort he will run well here.
They could all be playing second fiddle however as GOOD RISK AT ALL surely would take all the beating if lining up. Sam Thomas was bitterly disappointed to miss the cut in the Coral Cup as at the time he trained the market leader but it may have turned out to be a blessing in disguise as I’m not sure whether he would have appreciated such testing conditions. He had earlier looked a bright prospect and he put plenty of lengths between himself and Christopher Wood at Ascot so a repeat of that run would see him go close here.
1) Good Risk At All
2) Christopher Wood
3) Garry Clermont
Betway Top Novices Hurdle
This could turn out to be a penalty kick for the ultra impressive Constitution Hill if he turns up here. A facile winner of the Supreme at Cheltenham in a course record time he certainly looks to have the world at his feet. His attendance here is in doubt though as his sporting owner has been quoted saying he quite fancies a crack at Honeysuckle over in Punchestown which would be some race if that did happen. Whether Nicky can persuade him to reign it in slightly and go for this easier option remains to be seen but I’m sure that’s what the trainer is thinking.
Without him here I’d like to see the rematch between Dysart Dynamo and JONBON as neither really played their hand when the former fell. However, I think Willie Mullins is likely to keep his charge in Ireand for the remainder of the season so it’s Jonbon who will do for me. In a normal year I think he wins the Supreme comfortably just like his brother did but he had the misfortune of running in a year in which we might just have seen something special. He certainly didn’t disgrace himself though and he proved himself to be a high class performer in his own right. This looks like the ideal opportunity to prove that and I think he will.
I’m sure Willie Mullins will send something here as he has such a nice bunch of novices. Sir Gerhard would be a very interesting addition but I’d say the inclusion of State Man might be more likely. Three Stripe Life for Gordon Elliott would have a chance as I’m sure connections are keen to avoid Sir Gerhard.
1) Jonbon
2) Three Stripe Life
3) State Man
Betway Mildmay Chase
It was quite evident how seething Paul Nicholls was having to withdraw
Bravemansgame from the Brown Advisory on account of the ground. He was clearly tuned for the day and had his whole season set around that race. With that in mind I think connections will be gunning for this race and I expect an ultra confident ride from Harry Cobden.
How the Brown Advisory played out, it would have been interesting to see who would have come out on top if he did run as L’Homme Presse looked a high class horse. Hopefully we get to see that match up here as it will give us a better idea as to how the Gold Cup & King George markets for next year will shape up.
Both are great jumpers and strong travellers so I can see them really going toe to toe coming down to the last couple of fences but I’d probably plump for festival winner L’HOMME
PRESSE given how he has faced up to every challenge so far this season. He’s such a likeable horse and Charlie Deutsch has a good rapport with him, they always seem to be on the same wavelength. If it got into a fight I think this lad might just pull out a little bit more.
Of the remainder I’m not too sure what will line up. Galopin Des Champs would be an unlikely runner but Gaillard Du Mesnil an Capadanno may re oppose. I don’t give them much hope of reversing the form but this would look a suitable race for both to aim for. Stattler is another of the Mullins brigade who may line up after his facile National Hunt Chase win. This will be harder though and the emphasis on speed may not suit.
Threeunderthrufive is better than what he showed at Cheltenham and back on a sounder surface he may be able to put his accurate jumping to good use. He shaped like a non-stayer at Cheltenham but we all know he does stay so I'm inclined to put a line through that run.
Handicap winner, Corach Rambler, may take his chance and the way he won the Ultima you couldn’t rule him out. He looks like another fine long term prospect for the Lucinda Russell yard.
1) L’Homme Presse 2) Bravemansgame 3) Threeunderthrufive
Melling Chase
I think the dust up we would like to see here would be SHISHKIN vs Allaho. What a race that would be and it would certainly whet the appetite for part time racing fans up and down
the land. I’d have to favour Shishkin over the Ryanair winner despite what happened in the Champion Chase in the hope that the better ground on offer here will see him return to his best.
It was pretty clear he wasn’t really acting on the ground from an early stage and although he has gone through similar conditions before I believe the ground he raced on at Cheltenham was virtually un-raceable. It's easy enough for me to forgive him for that and I’m keen to see how the bookmakers react when he is next entered and whether or not they bump his odds up again and try and get him beat again. I will certainly be backing him if they do.
Having said that, it isn’t certain that he runs here as he will have other options on his plate but it would be quite some clash if he did.
Allaho probably has the race at his mercy if Shishkin doesn’t turn up as nothing could get him off the bridle at Cheltenham and I doubt there will be many different opponents here. Fakir D’oudairies would be an obvious choice given how he won here last year but you’d probably say he is held by Allaho on all known form.
Allmankind could make it an interesting race if he does go tearing off in front. That might just knock Allaho and all of a sudden you’ve got a race on your hands but with that said Willie Mullins’ horse is looking more and more bulletproof with every run and his days of bombing out seem to be well behind him.
1) Shishkin
2) Allaho
3) Fakir D’oudairies
Topham Chase
As usual this race is a bit of a minefield and it will usually pay to find a horse with experience over the course and distance. Last year’s winner Livelovelaugh was very impressive and you would give him a good chance of following up despite being another year older. However, he hasn’t been seen since last summer and you would have to worry about a 12 year old coming into this race after such a lay off.
His stablemate BURROWS SAINT is absolutely tailor made for this race but connections are tempted to run in the National for obvious reasons. He looked the winner last year but just failed to stay over the extended trip. Jumping these National fences with such ease is a rare trait for a horse but he just seems to come alive over them and there is no doubt he would be my selection here if connections decide to pursue this route.
Last year’s second Pink Eyed Pedro has had a quiet winter due to his preference of better ground and if the ground is on the decent side here you would have to consider him to follow up last year’s effort.You could argue last year’s second was a career best by some distance so connections must surely have visions of sending him back here to go one better.
He too isn’t getting any younger but a young horse who seems to appreciate these National fences is Senior Citizen. Alan King’s horse was third in the race last year and has since backed that up with a second placed finish in the Grand Sefton in December. Clearly, he saves his best for the course and his trainer has had this race lined up all season.
The final horse to make the shortlist is Caribean Boy who has apparently schooled very well over these fences previously. He was pulled up in the race last year but you would have to forgive him that I think . He was right back to his best at Kempton a few runs back but again disappointed last time out at Ascot. The step back in trip over these fences may just rejuvenate him and he would have an outside chance.
1) Burrows Saint
2) Senior Citizen
3) Caribean Boy
Sefton Novices Hurdle
Having been quite keen on STAG HORN for the Albert Bartlett I can’t help but feel disappointed with the way that race panned out. I had the race mapped out in my head and it was all going to plan until half way down the back where he really started to struggle and was eventually pulled up. That clearly wasn’t his running and
I’m sure he is a graded hurdler. Jockey Nick Scholfield has plenty of faith in the horse and has said before he should be better suited by Aintree with the flat nature of the track. With that in mind and using a bit of blind faith he’s the one I want to be with here.
The Nice Guy won that race at Cheltenham but he is likely to stay in
Ireland for a rematch against Minella Cocooner. Bardenstown Lad is a more likely runner given his trainer’s history at bringing runners across from Ireland. He looks like your typical John McConnell horse who is as tough as teak and takes his racing really well. He has some good form in the book so he must rate a serious player here.
Falcon Eight was a late withdrawal at Cheltenham for Dermot Weld, perhaps due to the drying ground but if allowed to run here he would have to be considered being such a classy flat horse. Having won a Chester Cup you would have to think this track will suit him right down to the ground and he should be a decent each way price on the day. 1) Stag Horn 2) Bardenstown Lad 3) Falcon Eight
Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
A competitive handicap hurdle to conclude proceedings on Day 2. Rowland Ward was a good winner of this race last year and although higher in the weights this time around he isn’t completely out of the reckoning after a win last time out. He seems to be coming to hand at just the right time and I think he does have a few pounds in hand still.
Howdyalikemenow is an interesting runner for Evan Williams who is more than capable of producing one for this race. With Isabel qualified to ride in this you would think this 2 mile hurdler would be considered for a race of this nature. It was a step back in the right direction last time out when sixth in the Imperial Cup and a repeat of that run would see him go close here.
Lord Baddesley would be a big player based on his Betfair Hurdle run but he isn’t one to rely on as his run last time out showed. If he puts his best foot forward then he would be the biggest danger but you just can’t trust him to do that.
A horse that has been on my radar for some time now is GRISBI DE BERCE for the Alan King stable. A free going sort, in the wrong race he struggles to settle but in a race like this he should be very comfortable. He has caught my eye a few times this winter when travelling well but has failed to see his race out either because of being too keen early or the soft ground. On good ground in a fast run race I think we could see a different horse and he could go off at a fancy price.
Hydroplane and Zambezi Fix are two horses who are regular attendees in these sorts of races and could feature but I wonder if they want softer ground than they might get here.
Royaume Uni is a likable type for the Gary Moore yard and he too is a player having shown up well in similar events throughout the season.
1) Grisbi De Berce 2) Howdyalikemenow
3) Royaume Uni