Favourites don’t often fare well
Andrew Newton with the stats for the Sandown finale
As we head into April, the end of the month sees the curtain come down on another jumps season with the bet365 Gold Cup meeting at Sandown (Saturday 23rd April), the fixture that brings the hedge-hopping action to a close.
Run over a distance of 3m5f, it’s another race this month for the stayers, while the older readers out there will still remember this event as ‘The Whitbread Gold Cup’, who sponsored the contest from 1957 until 2001.
It’s had various backers since, but leading bookmaker bet365 are starting to build up a strong relationship with the contest now, having supported it since 2008.
Anyway, being a competitive staying handicap chase with a lot of back history, it’s another race with plenty of stats and trends to help find the winner.
Let’s take a look at some of the key stats...
Recent Run: With a massive 17 of the last 18 winners having raced in the last 63 days, this is a very good starting point once the final runners are out. This stat can also be delved into further with 10 of the last 18 winners having raced in the last 25 days. Just three of the last 18 winners won their last race, so don’t focus too much on trying to find a horse that heads here off the back of a win. Finally, here with 10 of the last 17 also finishing fourth or worse last time out this is another trend to note.
Weight: Another key trend to help narrow down the runners with 16 of the last 18 winners carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight, with 14 of the last 18 having 11st or less. Since 2007, we’ve only had three winners that won with 11st or more - but one of those was last year - Potterman (11st 9lbs). If we go back further, then 24 of the last 30 winners (80%) carried less than 11st, while 5 of the last 18 winners won the race with just 10st. Therefore, even though it doesn’t always apply to these staying races, it’s clear here that those towards the bottom of the handicap have done best.
Age: The most recent winner in 2021 – Potterman – was an 8 year-old when he won the race – with 39% of the last 18 winners that age. Plus, last year’s winner further backed up the trend that’s seen 14 of the last 18 winners aged 9 or younger. Having said that, we have seen three 11 year-olds – Monkerhostin (2008), Church
Island (2010) and Tidal Bay (2012) – take the race in recent times. At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve had just one 6 year-old winner (Bounce Back, 2002) since 1959.
Favourites and Betting: Another big stat here in recent times has seen this race being a terrible race for the favourites – the last winning market leader was in 2000 (Beau). Backed up again in 2021 with the jolly –
Enrilo – finishing third. But, it’s worth noting that horse - Enrilo - did actually win the race, but was placed third after hanging in the closing stages and causing interference.
However, that said, don’t normally have to look too far away from the favourite to find the winner of this race. The 2019 winner - Talkischeap was sent off the 7/1 joint second best in the betting, while 13 of the last 18 winners returned 14/1 or shorter and 11 of those came from the top seven in the market.
Trip: It’s no real surprise that 14 of the last 18 winners of this staying handicap have won previously over at least 3m, but it’s still something to note in case there are any new kids on the block trying the 3m+ trip for the first time.
Trainers: The Alan King yard have won the last two runnings of this race so anything they run has to be respected. While other yards to have on your radar have to be Paul Nicholls, who has four successes to his name – the most recent being in 2015. Nicky Henderson, Peter Bowen, Neil Mulholland and Philip Hobbs are other stables that have got their name on the winners’ hall of fame in recent years too.
Good Luck!
Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners
2021 - POTTERMAN (12/1)
2020 – No Race
2019 – TALKISCHEAP (7/1)
2018 – STEP BACK (7/1)
2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1) 2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1) 2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1) 2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1)
2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1)
2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1)
2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)
Bet365 Gold Cup Betting Trends and Stats
17/18 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/18 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/18 – Had won over 3m or further before
14/18 – Aged 9 or younger
13/18 - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Officially rated 140 or higher
11/18 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
10/18 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/18 – Finished 4th or worse last time out 5/18 – Won with 10st in weight
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/18 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
2/18 - Trained by Alan King (last two winners)
0/18 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 14/1
Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts
The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959 24 of the last 30 (80%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 7 of the last 18 runnings (39%)
14 of the last 18 (78%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times