Will it be jollies or the boys in blue?
Andrew Newton looks ahead to the September classic at Doncaster
As we head into September, we’ve the final of the five English Classics at Doncaster – the Cazoo St Leger – this year set to be run on Saturday September 10.
First run in 1776, the St Leger is the oldest of the English Classics and so it’s no surprise the race is steeped in history and, therefore, there are also a stack of key trends to consider once we know the final runners.
Last year, we saw the Charlie Appleby yard win the race for the first time with Hurricane Lane, but the threeyear-old was providing the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin with their seventh success in the race. While it also gave jockey William Buick his third St Leger victory after guiding home Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel in 2010 and 2011.
Here are some of the key St Leger trends..
Trip Advisor – With the St Leger being run over 1m6f, more often than not this will be the first time these three-year-olds will tackle this longer trip. Therefore, with that in mind, there are question marks against most as to whether they will last out the extra yardage.
Having said that, most would have shown good form around 1m4f and many will actually improve for the step up in distance. This is backed up with 15 of the last 20 winners having won over 1m3f or further in the past. We’ve also seen 13 of the last 20 winners – including the last three winners – having never raced over this 1m6f trip, so horses stepping up should not be dismissed.
Bookie v Punter – It’s not been a bad race for the favourites in recent years. We’ve seen nine winning market leaders in the last 20 renewals (45%), with last year’s winner, Hurricane Lane, being the most recent jolly to land the odds.
We’ve also seen a huge 16 of the last 20 (80%) jollies placed, meaning those at the head of the market are never far away. With the average winning SP in the last 20 renewals being 13/2, then the bulk of recent St Leger winners still come from nearer the top than the bottom of the market. In the last 20 runnings we’ve only had four winners priced in double-figures.
Fitness First – Having had a recent run is another plus. Horses that have had two or three previous career wins have won 17 of the last 20 runnings, while 14 of the last 20 had run between four or five times that season.
With a huge 18 of the last 20 (90%) winners also having finished in the top three last time out, then heading into the St Leger off a solid effort is another trend to have in your corner.
Draw Bias – Okay, the St Leger is run over a trip of 1m6f, so really the draw shouldn’t really matter – horses have plenty of time to get into the race if good enough. Having said that, many will still argue that’s not the case! Seemingly, having a good early position and saving energy has been an asset to winning and this is supported with 12 of the last 20 winners (60%) hailing from stalls five or higher.
Stable Diet – The Aidan O’Brien team have a top record in the St Leger and it’s rare they don’t have runners in the race – they will be looking for their seventh success and have won three of the last nine. While, with four wins since 2007, then trainer John Gosden, whose last winner came in 2019 (Logocian), is another leading stable to respect. Of the rest, I’ve already mentioned the ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin having a fine record too – winning seven St Legers, with the most recent coming just last year with Hurricane Lane.
Jockey For Position – In terms of jockeys, it seems to be a race the cream rises to the top. We’ve seen Frankie Dettori (2), William Buick (3), Ryan Moore (2) and Andrea Atzeni (2) all win the St Leger since 2008, while, in total, Dettori has six St Legers to his name, but still needs another three to equal the winning-most rider in this race (Bill Scott).
Track Form – Don’t be too concerned if your St Leger fancy hasn’t raced at Doncaster in the past as a massive 17 of the last 20 winners hadn’t either. Doncaster is an uncomplicated track, with a long straight so will suit most staying horses anyway.
Put in simple terms, it will be rare for connections to be blaming a horse not being suited to the course.
Group Class – With the St Leger being a Group One event, then having already shown a decent level of form in Group contests in the past is an obvious plus. This is backed-up with 15 of the last 20 winners having won a Group race before heading here. Hurricane Lane was already a two-time Group One winner heading to Donny.
Top Trials – The St Leger is the last of the five English Classics and being run towards the end of the season then there have been many races before this to set horses up for this. The main trials to look back over have been the Gordon Stakes (Glorious Goodwood, July 28) and the Great Voltiguer Stakes (York, August 17).
Both contests are always worth looking back at – not only the winners, but those that ran well in the race
too. In the last 20 years, we’ve seen 11 St Leger winners that had previous run in one of those mentioned trial races.
In summary, like most years, we can expect the Aidan O’Brien camp to have a decent hand as they eye their seventh win in the St Leger – Changingoftheguard, who was fifth in the Epsom Derby, is one possible runner for the O’Brien team.
Irish Derby winner, Westover, is another contender if making the final line-up, but this year could be another ‘blue year’ with the Godolphin camp having another leading chance with New London, who was a tidy winner of the already mentioned trial – the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood earlier this season.
Good Luck!
Recent St Leger Winners
2021 – Hurricane Lane (8/11 fav) 2020 – Galileo Chrome (4/1) 2019 – Logician (5/6 fav)
2018 – Kew Gardens (3/1)
2017 – Capri (3/1 fav)
2016 – Harbour Law (22/1) 2015 – Simple Verse (8/1) 2014 – Kingston Hill (9/4 fav) 2013 – Leading Light (7/2 fav) 2012 – Encke (25/1)
2011 – Masked Marvel (15/2) 2010 – Arctic Cosmos (12/1) 2009 – Mastery (14/1)
2008 – Conduit (8/1)
2007 – Lucarno (7/2)
2006 – Sixties Icon (11/8 fav) 2005 – Scorpion (10/11 fav) 2004 – Rule of Law (3/1 jfav) 2003 – Brian Boru (5/4 fav) 2002 – Bollin Eric (7/1)
Key St Leger Trends
18/20 – Placed in the top three last time out
17/20 – Had two or three previous career wins
17/20 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
16/20 – Placed favourites
16/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
15/20 – Had won a Group race before 15/20 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
14/20 – Had four or five previous runs that season
13/20 – Winning distance of one length or more
13/20 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
12/20 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
12/20 – Won last time out
11/20 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint) 8/20 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
5/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/20 – Trained by John Gosden
4/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
4/20 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (seven wins in total)
3/20 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (two won it)
3/20 – Ridden by William Buick
2/20 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/20 – Winners from stall 1
– Godolphin have won the race seven times
– Aidan O’Brien has trained six winners – The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13/2