ALPNISTA SEES SIR MARK ON A HIGH
David Youngman was delighted to see the veteran trainer land his first Arc victory
FOR Sir Mark Prescott and the team at Heath House stables here at Newmarket, the recent success of ALPINISTA in the Arc in Paris was a great occasion. Owned by Kirsten Rausing, the daughter of Frankel won the race very cosily under jockey Luke Morris much to the delight of Annabel Willis who tends to the horse on a daily basis at the yard and rides exercise on it every day.
Assistant trainer William Butler at the Prescott yard was very happy for his boss but is looking forward very much to the day when he takes over from Sir Mark to train there. “Winning this race will keep the boss going for a while yet and I won't be in charge any time soon.” he told me. “But he has taught me well and I will be more than ready when the time comes for my turn.”
Sir Michael Stoute has enjoyed a good season at Freemason Lodge and his recent success with BAY BRIDGE in the Qipco Champion Stakes further enhanced the season for him. Stable star and Epsom Derby winner DESERT CROWN is looking great and is enjoying an easy time up at Darley Stud at Dalham Hall on the Duchess Drive here at Newmarket. He had a slight injury to an ankle after the Derby win and has been given a very easy time since but it is hoped to get him back under saddle again soon. He will go back to Sir Michael at Freemason Lodge after
Christmas ready for the 2023 season where he should do well. His long-term aim will be the Arc in Paris next year.
Sir Michael is never here in Newmarket in January. He likes to either spend that month in his native Barbados or have a nice trip to South Africa. NOSTRUM and CIRCLE OF FIRE look certain to fly the flag well for the yard next season when stepped up in distance and after having a winter over their backs. It was so nice for him to be the first to train a winner for King Charles. JUST FINE won nicely and it was a very memorable occasion for the team at Freemason Lodge.
William Haggas was disappointed to see BAAEED lose his winning tag on his final outing but that is racing. The son of Sea The Stars has been brilliant in his races and a real star for the Somerville Lodge team but he could not quicken and pick up on the soft ground. He looks sure to make up into a fine stallion and hopefully the Haggas yard will have some of his offspring to train in the coming years. I must say what a wonderful job his
rider-groom Ricky Hall has done with the colt but as Ricky says: “He is a lovely horse to deal with and a very kind natured horse with a cracking good temperament.”
The late Sir Henry Cecil was inducted recently into the Qipco Racing Hall Of Fame and what a worthy recipient he is of it. Henry always considered WOLLOW the best horse he had trained until FRANKEL came along. Henry was always most revered and loved by all who followed racing, we do and always will miss him very much here at HQ.
Francesca Cumani is back off to Australia to work for Channel 10 but she will be back to these shores in time for the 2023 season next year. Her son Teddy that was born in May is growing fast and she is looking forward to continuing with her career. She is also looking forward to seeing her brother Matt who trains in Ballarat in Australia.
Trainer Amy Murphy is pleased to have stable star KALASHNIKOV back at her Southgate yard on the Hamilton Road. The son of Kalanisi has been off since he picked up an injury when last seen competing in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2021. The horse is owned by Amy's father Paul and everyone is hopeful the gelding can return to good form. Obviously after such a long time off the track, he will need time and a couple of runs to get to full competitive fitness.
Shiekh Mohammed bought some lovely yearlings at the recent Tattersalls Yearling Sales for Godolphin here at Newmarket. Many were by Frankel and Dubawi. One in particular was the highest priced of the entire sale, at 2.8 million guineas, it is by Frankel out of So Mi Dar and was consigned by the Lloyd Webber's Watership Down Stud. This bay colt has now gone to Darley to be broken in at Dalham Hall on Duchess Drive here at Newmarket before it will be going into full training with Charlie Appleby. Godolphin spent over 35 million guineas in total at the Tatts sales.
Prices were generally very high at the Book 1 sales at Tattersalls but you must always remember, price tag means nothing on the racecourse it is how well a horse can perform and run. That is what win it races.
Harry Herbert and Jake Warren were seen to purchase some lovely yearlings at the recent sales and Harry is trying to get me to buy a share in a bay colt by Wootton Bassett. This lovely colt is going to be trained here at HQ by William and Mo Haggas at their Somerville Lodge yard and it will run for the members of the Pablo Picasso Syndicate. HEBRIDES did so well for the Oak Tree Syndicate and is shortly to be sold so there is money to come from that sale for members to reinvest into another share.
I will be writing for the magazine through the winter but I am off to
Dubai for a spell for some winter sun so may only be doing one page from now till the new Flat season in March. daveyoungman@btinternet.com
As I sit down to write, it's Friday already..! I can't believe we are back into the Jumps Season. Where did the Flat Season go? I'm constantly reminded by the OAP mafia in my local bookies that as your age ticks by, you notice time seems to race ahead; however, your gait appears to move a lot slower; it's the start of the cold weather to blame or these damn shoes.
Maybe this is another reason why some people want to get to the nitty gritty of form reading and really just apply a few methods to enable them to quickly differentiate between possible selections. The notion of form reading perfection seems unattainable for the average racing enthusiast. Sometimes over-study can play a part in what you try to achieve as a form reader. My point here is to make sure everyone not only understands what we are trying to do when looking at a horse's chances within a race. Hopefully, the methods and reasons within my articles will allow you to apply winning results in your betting.
I encourage you to introduce some of those techniques into your selection process and do so quickly, efficiently, and, most importantly, effectively."When looking at any horse race, we can only be certain of one thing and one thing only. One of these horses will win the race." A few of you may say, "Yes, but what about a dead heat?" Now I'm sure someone will dig out the facts for dead heats for this year and last, and I know I've read it somewhere already, but I can't remember off the top of my head today. Let's not worry about that, as the odds of this happening in the race you are dealing with are somewhat remote.
I've only ever been involved in a handful of races, which affected my selection. Even with a dead heat, this is better than the horse finishing runnerup. Watching and noting how a close race or a weak affair is finished can give you a great insight into the structure of the race and the horses performing within it. Especially if you are following a particular horse's progress. As we all know, Handicap races are supposed to finish with all the horses finishing together; at least, that is what the Handicapper is trying to predict when handing out penalties. Unfortunately, certain aspects of today's elements, horses form past or present, and any current fitness issues allow little chance of this happening. Usually, what happens is that the horses running in Handicap races are just as strung out as in all other types of races. So how do we start to predict today's performances?
Well, you should typically begin by looking at the figures that today's horses have run previously. This is taking recent form into account only, and we all know by now that there is more to this than first meets the betting eye. Generally, when horses run well, they receive good finishing form numbers; when they don't, they receive bad ones. "The ability of each horse cannot solely lie with its last race or last couple of races." Many reasons a horse may not run to its recent form numbers.
Such as;
1: Unsuitable Distance
2: Wrong Track Type
3: Draw Biases
4: Pace Problems
5: Trouble Getting An Open Run 6: Unfair Going Conditions
7: Class, and so on.
However, what you need to do at this early stage of the selection process is to determine which horses seem capable, under reasonable circumstances, of winning the race. Some races are easier than others to qualify for, and the reason for this has to be the race's quality and the history of the horses competing.
What to look for
One way to determine the competition is to follow the Official Rating of the top 3 to 4 runners within today's race. If the top-rated horse, for example, is running off an official rating of 79, and the other three horses have exceeded or been around this number recently. Nobody else within the race has beaten a 79rated horse; it's not likely someone will pull off a surprise.
The simple way to do this is to look at all horse's last runs (if won). See what type of competition they ran against in their previous race; the Racing Post history will give you all the Official Ratings of horses they ran against previously. At this stage, you're not evaluating form but simply getting a feel for each horse and its ability."
From 30 feet away, she looked like a lot of Class. From 10 feet away, she looked like something made up to be seen from 30 feet away"– Raymond Chandler.
Race Class
The argument for a horse's chances of winning when dropping back in Class than when stepping up in Class gives a good indication of what to look for. There are several reasons for this;
● The Easier Pace Of Lower Class Races.
● The Quality Of The Opposition (some of which may be moving up in Class to compete).
● The Fact That A Horse Is Often Dropped In Class After A Dull Effort (and then it produces its usual effort in milder competition.
● The Previous Class Not Suiting The Horse (especially after a long layoff and fitness issues).
Prize money
in Handicap races is the bread and butter for any stable throughout the season, so what effect does this have on Class? The quality of the field can be determined by the prize money on offer; understanding the Class hierarchy within a particular track will go a long way to point you in the direction of potential selections. What kind of field is attracted to smaller prize money races?
Especially if some of the runners were previously racing for £6500 prize money races a few months ago. Ask yourself. Is the quality of competition in a £2500 Non-Handicaps at Kempton more demanding or less challenging than a £4000 race for Non-Handicap types at Southwell? When horses go up or down in Class, they also go in and out of form; as a rule of thumb, the higher Class races present the horse with more potential race rivals.
Looking at Class past and present of a possible selection, I suggest you look at how successful a horse has been in the past concerning today's Class, rather than noting that the horse has run in this Class but did nothing. If a horse has shown in the past that it can compete in this Class, then it is optimistic that the horse may repeat that run again today. Look for a horse which has at least been placed in today's Class over similar trip and ground conditions.
Dropping Back in Class
For example, let's say Horse A wins and places in four races over Class 4 conditions, one win, one-second place and two third places. The trainer then decides to step Horse A up to a Class 2 competition, where the horse finishes 11th. The trainer then decides to enter the horse in a Class 3 race to hopefully improve the horse's chances. The question we now need to ask ourselves is, does this mean now that the horse has dropped back in Class? And the answer is this, well, no, not really. Let me explain; due to the level of the horse's success, we know his best performances have come at Class 4, where we can expect him to give us a run for our money.
The horses performances at Class 4 are proven; his performances are not proven in Class 2 races, where he achieved nothing apart from making up the numbers. He is not even proven at Class 3, where he still might be simply outclassed. Sometimes it's challenging to gauge Class levels and the more significant numbers of horses you have in the race where the trainer has moved them through this Class shifting process.
It's worth paying attention when the more respected and higher percentage 20% plus strike rate trainers move their horses up or down in Class. Again a significant drop in Class usually means a drop in confidence or the desire to offload a particular horse; however, a step up can indicate the opposite.
Don't get this confused with the typical trainer types, as this only really applies to the trainers right at the top of their game. By including this point, I'm not trying to confuse you with the step up or drop back in Class overall.
Point To Ponder
Having horses with at least 8 races minimum gives you some history to work with; the more, the better. If all the horses in a particular race have a similar level of history, then it may be easier to work through the pack. While recent form is considered, any horse which has shown itself to have previous Class form must be taken into account and monitored respectively, as there is a chance the horse may return to its prior racing ability.
If the horse was competing successfully eight months ago, then missed the next few months for whatever reason, then came back on its first start only to produce nothing like its past form, this could be seen as expected. It may be that the horse simply needs to attain a certain level of race fitness again to return to its former success despite its disappointing first return run. Remember, recent form and past performances must be considered equally, and their merits awarded the relevant approval.
When doing this pre-race analysis, if two or even three horses stand out above the rest of the field and you cannot separate one horse from another, my advice is to back them all. Now you can play around with the staking here if you wish, but in terms of trying to find the race leaders, you should never really have more than three outright backing selections in any given race unless the race is a really tight affair in which case it may be wise to avoid such races. "You never know; you may even be involved with a dead heat".
It's always better to spread or Dutch your bets rather than leave one selection out of the fold only to see him win by a nose. Especially if you are getting started with racing, dutching can be an ideal opportunity for some welcomed early success.
One of the other big jumping highlights this month is the newly-named Coral Gold Cup – staged at Newbury on Saturday November 26 and in old money the race is better known as the Hennessy Gold Cup to those that remember.
In recent years, the race has also been known as the Ladbrokes Trophy until 2021, but with Ladbrokes and
Coral now in bed together the contest has yet another new name – the Coral Gold Cup – which is at least a short and sweet title.
Run over 3m2f, this is one of the early-season handicap highlights that the classier horses are no strangers to trying giving a lot of weight away to the others.
This has been backed up in recent times, we saw the ‘Tank’ Denman powering to victory twice (2007 and
2009), while the former Grand National winner, Many Clouds is another past winner of the now-named Coral Cup.
Add in Cheltenham Gold Cup winners, Bobs Worth and Native River, who are other big names on the ‘hall-offame’ since 2000 then the event is certainly holding it’s kudos status.
Twelve months ago, in 2021, we witnessed the late Trevor Hemmings silks winning the race again as the Venetia Williams-trained Cloudy Glen caused a shock at 33/1.
It was the second winner in a row for the Hemmings colours after Cloth Cap also won in 2020 and their third in total with Many Clouds also carrying the famous green, yellow and white colours.
Cloudy Glen is still only a nine yearold, so he could be back for more in 2022 too and if successful would become the first ‘back-to-back’ winner of the race since Arkle took the honours in 1964 and 1965!
The good news is that there are many other key trends to take into the race – let’s take a look.
Age – The last two winners have been aged 8 year-old and this is a good age cut off point. In recent times, we’ve seen a massive 18 of the last 20 winners aged eight or younger, while it’s also worth noting that 12 of the last 20 winners were aged six or seven.
In 2018, we saw a 10 year-old winner of the race – Sizing Tennessee, but he was the first double-figure aged winner since 1981. Since 1961, the contest has only produced four winners aged 10 or older! So, in a nutshell, it’s best to have the runners aged 6, 7 or 8 on your side.
Recent Form – With 10 of the last 20 winners having won last time out, this is worth considering, while stat this can be delved into further with 14 of the last 20 (70%) winners placed in the top three last time out.
Horses that have had the benefit of a recent run that season have also done better. Yes, last year’s winner Cloudy Glen won this off a break, but 13 of the last 20 winners had raced already that term. Also note horses that ran at Aintree or Cheltenham last time out - 10 of the last 20 winners – ticked this stat, including last year’s winner.
Previous Wins – The main stat to note here is that 18 of the last 20 winners had won between two and five times over fences in the past. This indicated to look for horses with experience but are also not fully exposed to the handicapper.
Betting Guide and Market Leaders – The Coral Gold Cup normally produces a big field heading to post; but actually, the favourites don’t have a bad record.
In the last 20 runnings, we’ve seen 6 winning market leaders (30%), but it’s worth pointing out we’ve also had 12 unplaced jollies in that same period (60%). This indicates the favourites tend to win or bomb out!
Last year, we had a shock 33/1 winner, but with 16 of the last 20 winners returning 12/1 or shorter and the average winning SP in that period 10/1, then it’s a race that doesn’t produce that many surprise big-priced winners. Since 2002, we’ve seen last year’s hero Cloudy Glen (33/1), Madison du Berlais (25/1) and Triolo D’Arlene (20/1) as the biggest-priced winners.
Weight – Being a handicap race, then weight carried, and a horses current rating are certainly worth taking into account. Thirteen of the last 20 winners were officially rated between 140 and 151. With 13 of the last 20 winners (65%) carrying 10st 13lbs or more in weight then around this point looks to be the best weight cut-off point. The last two winners, though has featherweights
with Cloudy Glen last year winning with 10st 8lbs and Cloth Cap in 2020 with 10st, so a small word of caution here.
That said, it’s also worth noting that the classier horses that tend to run here are more than capable of giving the weight away in this contest - since
2005 (17 renewals), with seen 11 winners carry 11st 1lbs or more.
Course Form – Newbury is classed as one of the more premier tracks (jumps and flat) and even though its fences take some jumping it’s a flat course. That said, still having experience of the Berkshire track seems to have helped past winners as 13 of the last 20 winners of this race had run at Newbury in the past, with 9 of those winning there over fences as well.
Top Trainers – Since 2016, the Colin Tizzard yard have won this race twice – and despite handing the operation over to son Joe anything they run must be respected still.
The powerful Nicky Henderson team have two wins in the last 10 runnings and three victories in total. With Willie Mullins sending over Total Recall to win in 2017 and Paul Nicholls, who actually rode the winner of this race in 1986 and 1987, having three Coral Gold Cup wins under his belt – then the cream often rises to the top with regards to the trainers.
Other notably stables that have taken the race in recent times are Alan
King, David Pipe and Oliver Sherwood. Jonjo O’Neill won the race for the first time in 2020, while 12 months ago Venetia Williams was winning the race for the second time after taking the prize back in 1998 with the popular Teeton Mill. Good Luck!
Recent Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Winners
2020 - CLOTH CAP (9/1)
2019 – DE RASHER COUNTER (12/1) 2018 – SIZING TENNESSEE (12/1) 2017 – TOTAL RECALL (9/2 fav) 2016 – NATIVE RIVER (7/2 fav)
2015 – SMAD PLACE (7/1)
2014 – MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2013 – TRIOLO D’ALENE (20/1)
2012 – BOBS WORTH (4/1 fav)
2011 – CARRUTHERS (10/1)
2010 – DIAMOND HARRY (6/1) 2009 – DENMAN (11/4 fav)
2008 – MADISON du BERLAIS (25/1)
2007 – DENMAN (5/1)
2006 – STATE OF PLAY (10/1)
2005 – TRABOLGAN (13/2)
2004 – CELESTIAL GOLD (9/4 fav) 2003 – STRONG FLOW (5/1 jfav) 2002 - GINGEMBRE (16/1)
Key Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends
17/19 – Aged 8 or younger
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
17/19 – Had won a 3m chase before 16/19 - Returned 12/1 or shorter
14/19 – Finished in the first three last time out
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/19 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
13/19 – Winning distance – 2½ lengths or more
13/19 – Had a previous run that season
12/19 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old 12/19 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/19 – Rated between 140 and 151 11/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse 11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Won last time out
9/19 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (7) last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint) 3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (two of last nine)
2/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable 2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (two of the last five)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/1
Eleven of the last 16 winners carried 11st 1lb or more
Since 1968, there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990, (30 runnings) there have been 14 winners (47%) aged seven years-old