A Sinn Fein change of leadership will not mean that the IRA has gone away
Regina Doherty’s woolly thinking ignores intelligence reports which make coalition impossible for Fine Gael and Fianna Fail — so the time has now come to make ‘new politics’ work, writes Jody Corcoran
THE resignation of Martin McGuinness, coupled with his evident ill health, has led to speculation that more sweeping leadership change may now take place in the Republican movement.
This has given rise to a question as to whether such change could see Sinn Fein enter coalition government here after the next election.
The thinking goes: if only Gerry Adams, in particular, would depart then Mary Lou McDonald, as leader, or Pearse Doherty or whomever, could lead Sinn Fein into a bright new dawn. Such speculation is wide of the mark.
The speculation was fuelled by the Government chief whip, Regina Doherty, who last weekend seemed to open the door to a Sinn Fein coalition with Fine Gael.
“There are some incredible people in Sinn Fein; incredibly smart, articulate, thoughtful and could I work with them? Of course I could, yeah,” Ms Doherty said.
The Fine Gael TD also seemed to place her comments in the context of leadership change in Sinn Fein, specifically the departure of Gerry Adams.
However, her comments, and further speculation since the subsequent resignation of McGuinness as Northern Ireland Deputy First Minister, are premature, not to mention woolly in their thinking.
The short answer is “no” to the question whether leadership change now could see Sinn Fein enter coalition government here after the next election.
That is not to say that at some stage Sinn Fein may well form a coalition government with either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, but the prospect remains remote in the short-to-medium term. (What is meant by short-to-medium term is five to 10 years.)
Until then, the “incredibly smart, articulate, thoughtful” Sinn Fein TDs to whom Ms Doherty referred will continue to promote the idea that Sinn Fein aims to form a Left-led government.
But the prospect of a farLeft or even Left-led government in the short to medium term is even more remote than a Fine Gael or Fianna Fail coalition with Sinn Fein.
Therefore, in the continued absence of a formal Fine Gael/ Fianna Fail coalition, and with a significant decline in support for the Labour Party, the country faces the prospect of continued minority government for possibly up to a further decade.
That is because Sinn Fein commands enough support, at either side of around 15pc of the total vote, to put a block on a more traditional two, three or even four-party coalition.
If anything, the resignation, and possible retirement of McGuinness, can be expected to ensure that Adams remains rather than departs.
The likely McGuinness retirement is already leading to speculation as to who will succeed him as an MLA in Derry, as Deputy First Minister and, effectively, as Sinn Fein leader in Northern Ireland.
There is a suggestion that Donegal TD Pearse Doherty will contest the looming election in Derry, paving the way for the return of Sinn Fein’s Padraig Mac Lochlainn from the Seanad to the Dail.
There is also a suggestion that Conor Murphy, Sinn Fein representative for Newry/ Armagh, will succeed McGuinness as Deputy First Minister.
In both of these outcomes, Adams would remain a TD for Louth, Sinn Fein leader in the Dail and, of course, Sinn Fein President. However, the possibility exists that Adams will retreat from politics in the Dail, where he is uncomfortable, and has had a torrid time on account of his association with the Provisional IRA, and return to the North.
His retreat and return to west Belfast would certainly make the prospect of coalition with Sinn Fein more presentable for both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
But the fundamental position would remain unchanged.
In October 2015, an intelligence assessment was carried out by the then Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Theresa Villiers, which concluded that Provisional IRA members believe the IRA Army Council oversees the PIRA and Sinn Fein with an “overarching strategy”.
The assessment on the structure, role and purpose of paramilitary groups also stated that the Provisional IRA took part in decommissioning between 2001 and 2005 but “continues to have access to some weapons”.
The Villiers report was prepared and published after the murder of two Provisional IRA men in Belfast in 2015.
Her report led to the last crisis in Northern Ireland before this present crisis.
After 10 weeks of talks which began on September 8, A Fresh Start — The Stormont Agreement and Implementation Plan was agreed on November 17, 2015.
The agreement addressed many issues, including that of tackling the continuing impact and legacy of paramilitarism.
In June last year, the Minister for Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan published a “progress report” which noted a number of achievements, including an “action plan” on tackling paramilitarism, criminality and organised crime.
Some aspects of that plan have been completed; however, the majority have not, including the full implementation of “initiatives to help moves away from paramilitary structures and activity”.
Therefore, tempted though some of their more woolly-minded TDs may be, it would be impossible for either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail to enter a coalition with Sinn Fein.
Such a coalition would be unconscionable in circumstances where Provisional IRA members believe the IRA Army Council oversees the PIRA and Sinn Fein with an “overarching strategy”; and in the face of an intelligence assessment that the Provisional IRA “continues to have access to some weapons” notwithstanding its commitment to decommission.
Furthermore, the A Fresh Start — The Stormont Agreement and Implementation Plan failed to reach agreement on the implementation of the provisions dealing with the “legacy of the past”.
Therefore, there is no agreement on how to deal with the issues which have continued to dog Gerry Adams in the Dail, on which he has been so resolutely defended by those “incredibly smart, articulate, thoughtful” Sinn Fein TDs who so impress Regina Doherty.
In summary, then, there is unlikely to be sweeping leadership change in Sinn Fein; and even if there were, the belief that there is an “overarching strategy” of control by the Provisional IRA in west Belfast, which is supported by the leaders apparent in the Republic, would make it impossible for either Fine Gael or Fianna Fail to form a government with Sinn Fein in the short-to-medium term, until these issues are resolved to the satisfaction of the current and/or future leaders of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
In these circumstances, rather than it be regarded a ‘temporary little arrangement’ surely it is time to embrace and make work new politics.
‘Any retirement of McGuinness would ensure that Adams remains rather than departs...’